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What will be a better PBP? Randy Drunk AF or Ji over on Patreon?

There is some truth to this (can't combine qpf and cold). Think about it...the EPO is the biggest tele for cold, but has absolutely not statistically significant correlation to significant snowstorms. Why? Because very cold patters are often dry! Think about how rare snowstorms are with temps below 25 degrees! I can remember all of them...because there aren't that many! Most of our snow comes near or just below freezing because historically our best snowfall patterns were split flow regimes where the northern stream was out the damn way but that also means no arctic air! A ton of our snow had to work with marginal home grown typical winter air not arctic air. If we are only cold enough to snow in true arctic airmasses we lose all those storms. We haven't lost them all yet...but we are losing quite a few which is why DC's average snowfall has gone from 25" to 14" in the last 100 years!

So, what's going on? Caught wind of some snow possibility

More like "PHUN" and Games! We may be wtiness ECMWF bust history here! LOL.

Roger, guess I need to read up on them as I don't ever recall so much angst over it in my time here.

And now these mfers gave us free shots. I told them i need to be coherent for the GFS pbp. The stare was as blank as an untitled document in Word.

yes but it was a bust south of there; the second coming was advertised, and we got slush and sleet....we know areas to the north can get big snows in march; but it is rare down here. only a handful over 11 inches in the city in march. so, even with this one here, until i see significant snow on my doorstep, i will be dismissive, we are close enough to the endgame of winter here. i do hope something happens; i will call 3-6 a big win.

I agree on to many model runs. Not that I have a say in it but between AI models and 18Z “off hour runs” it must be a pain to use “guidance” as a guide in making a forecast.

Not sure if this has been posted- probably has but I'm a little drunk and just noticed it. Damn bourbon. King GFS? LOL

All the years of getting porked have rewired our brains. Well, some.

Been POURING rain here last 30 minutes.

tbh, there are enough busts in march to get confused if you are old enough...march 2004 also had a big one, with the city canceling schools for what turned out to be a car topper.....its' why i never expect much out of march, or late feb.....i have one storm to point to in my life, late feb 2010..and my area still got shafted a little, being close to the city, at a reported 8 inches.....march 2011 also had one that caused delayed openings for what turned into a dusting....i'm sure there are others.

Would be best of both worlds for me. I’m headed back to CT Sunday most likely for work. Would be great for everyone to maximize their potential.

Why is Palisades Tahoe CLOSED? Check this out. They got EIGHT FEET https://x.com/US_Stormwatch/status/2024621478965367028

Think we’d all be well served if the model providers went back to 00z/12z. Too many model runs, hard to keep track of how each subset is performing from storm to storm, and almost no down time.

And to eastern Mass

ahh the ol spicy rim...

Can a man get a god damn NAM'ing plesae

This hobby never was so stressful.

50-50 chance that 0Z is a full Monty

2/20 00z SREF Mean QPF 24 hours Sundat (2/22) 12z - Mon (2/23) 12z

When 00z comes in over bermuda burn after reading what did we learn.mp4

I'm jealous. Now I want Mexican and margs

Pretty juicy hrrr run for the SNH crew