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Will be plenty of time for that in January

yikes....guy had init: august 26

Forecast HI this afternoon: 102. Actual HI at 1:40pm: 87

we in midseason form or what?

That says August. The August forecast isn’t new. The Sept 1st forecast is the new one we’re waiting for. The monthly Euro forecasts are normally released on the 5th of the month.

Radarscope claims rotation with the storm out in W VA (near Broadway)

Getting the sun to destabilize is something we were missing the last few days. Could get interesting later .

Lets get cloudy, cool weekend afternoons with the sound of football filling the airwaves, and the scent of smoke in the nasal passage with rake in hand.

If I had my way, it would be drizzle and 43 all weekend, so it's fine by me.

About .4 from the stuff that woke me up overnight. Im still mowing every 5 days-ish and im ready to pour concrete over the whole damn thing and go bronx italian.

three bong rips and its a 10-er weekend

82 and totally clear now

Best threat over SE Pa or NW? That area is under the enhanced risk.

The NOAA August PDO came in at -1.11 vs July’s -1.35. This is the 2nd month in a row for which the NOAA monthly actually came in less negative than what the WCS dailies suggested (see image below). That is even more the case with August, for which the WCS averaged slightly lower than -1.5. This -1.11 compares to the significantly stronger -PDO of Aug of 2023 of -2.02: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

its already out boss

We'll see. Probably mostly south of the area

Wake me up on Halloween! I have no optimism about winter based on any hot cold flip analog. I'd like to narrow it down to strong+ El Nino years. My thinking is the Atmo is just flooded with warm air. That PDO out of phase only adds it. Probably not SER all winter; that's Nina. Absurdly mild source regions +ABNA and a stormy STJ seem likely. We got a shot at the warmest winter in recorded history. I expect ZERO snow in Chatty, probably not even a trace.

I was in Melbourne, Florida when Hurricane David passed over head. Only hurricane I was in the eye.

There seems to be growing consensus that an intense MCS will form over northeast OH and western PA late this afternoon and move southeast. While it (shocker) appears that the best threat will be over southeast PA, at least some of the complex should make it into northern MD and potentially into the Baltimore-Washington corridor later this evening or overnight.

ENH risk introduced in PA/OH on 1630z OTLK from SPC

Thanks for your reply, John. I’m asking anyone but tagged Don only because he’s been about the most involved with me in the discussion about the Nepal disaster and thus wanted to make sure he sees this. Martz appears to be correct in saying that there aren’t going to be many days that go >0C based on my just now seeing what’s down below that I’m quoting from the link below. If ~+1C really is the warmest at 5,364 m or 17.6K feet, is there going to be significant melting way up that high? https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-highest-and-lowest-temperatures-ever-recorded-at-Mt-Everest-base-camp “Highest and lowest recorded temperatures at Everest Base Camp (EBC) depend on which camp and which dataset, but reliable observations come from automatic weather stations (AWS) installed at the South Base Camp (Nepal side, ~5,364 m) and other nearby high-altitude stations. Summary of best-available values (observations and published AWS records, through May 2024): Highest recorded air temperature South (Nepal) Base Camp AWS: about −1.0 °C to +1.0 °C on the warmest days in late spring/early summer (typically May). Many published station summaries and expedition logs report peak values near 0 °C; a commonly cited peak is ~+0.5 °C. Slightly warmer spot measurements in sunlight or lower-elevation tent sites can exceed +1 °C briefly, but sustained, instrumented air-temperature peaks at the official South Base Camp are around 0 °C to +1 °C.”

Crap is in the hand of the beholder.

Thank you, I am just trying to understand all of this better. So then it looks like things should start to pick up again heat wise over the next week.