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As tight as this core is, could see a quasi-ERC that happens quickly and propels this to even higher strength over the next 18-24 hours. 889 pressure is on the top-10 list

RGEM was coming in west too. Think gfs starts to cave.

ICON came in way west.

Except this one has real potential if things break right

the real excitement from a storm like this comes from people wish casting

18z NAM RGEM and ICON all looking good

Really hope the icon is right

Little shower here right now...pavement not even wet though. Lol...trace is all...uggg. Holly Springs getting this one.

I do feel like these hybrid early season events more often result in boredom than anything else.

Gets going early

local mets seeing this as a fringe event. Shocking.

Still holding these thoughts. We have some "cooler" temperatures Thurs/Fri in the low 90s/mid-upper 60s. Next week several rain chances start to really take shape. Still don't see any hope for below normal temps any time soon. But the rain will be very welcome.

I’m not convinced this is much of anything here. Gusts to 40 and periods of rain. We need more than an inch or two of rain to make up for this drought

Warm October = Cold Winter

We have the same argument every winter and the EURO usually more or less runs correct.

Nam so far

Good to see the GFS coming back to reality at 12z a bit. Probably will cave hard at 18z or 0z

We're several days away. The important thing to note from satellite is that there is a surface trough with regions of spin. Some of that energy may even split off to the east. But a surface low will eventually organize, intensify and move near the Mid-Atlantic or New England. It's a bit chaotic between operational runs right now because we're dealing with a phasing situation in 48-72 hrs. Also, you know how tell the season is dead? When the entire discussion has been taken over by a potential mid-latitudinal coastal storm in the main tropical thread.

you aint seen nothing yet kid. he's just getting warmed up

Chilly afternoon high of just 59.7

Splotchy radar all day. Most of the splotches of decent rain are smallish and seem to miss my yard lol. Spitting and drizzling towards a half inch. 0.45" total since I guess Sunday?

Up to 0.08 for the event...

sweater weather this week