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Based on the combo of an E based super Nino with +QBO, 1982-3 is the single best analog for DJFM. Although it was AN in the megapolis, this was no torch there with it only ~2F AN. The true torch was much further W centered on the upper MW. The S US was NN: Precip: sharp deliniation between very wet SE/AN NE coast to BN to the NW:

ET coming ?

AI might end us first, lol.

Thanks. Yes, something one needs to take a step back and look at things in a balance and objective way. Like "are things really that atypical or abnormal in the context of what is happening in a given pattern/oscillation?" It like when we get an epic E Coast winter, how is that unusual really? It has happened before, so in itself, that it normal climo. Sure, frequency in winters go up and down over longer periods, but again, that's normal! And sometimes, it is absolutely NUTZ! I always say, "when it's good, it sometimes can be REAL good!" and not act linear in terms of how wild it can get. Like the 6 week period in Jan-Feb 2015. Quite localized, but where it was good, it was the best ever for snow weenies! The best example I like to use is April 2011. Yes, we first think about the superoutbreak at the end of the month, and that was epic, but there were over 500 other tors that month outside that event for the tor record for *any* month by far w/ 757 for the CONUS!

70.3F for the high. As nice as it has been, it's getting a little old. Need more fall-like seasonal temps to set the mood. Some rain would be appreciated too. 2.37" since Oct 1.

SSW is why right now, I’d favor an above average temp regime most of the winter - in fact I think winter disappears for long durations but it’s countered with above average snowfall. I think we have no shortage of moisture and inevitably we link up one of these SSW events with a storm or two.

Folks down east of us need it to get going and get going fast

Update: I am alive. House is looking festive. Now bring on some cold weather!

Basically anyone who doesn’t think the earth is going to uninhabitable in 5 years is labeled a denier here.

Given how dry we are I'm not jumping on any rain train

@CoastalWxmay need to be "cocked" a lot this winter to forget the torch and lack of snow! Pass the Mad Dog 2020!

And yet there are ppl who swear by him and he has them eating of his hands! UGH.

I give it another month before the meltdowns commence...

no surprise but nov looking like a toss

This never had a prayer of being easterly.

interesting to see such prolific totals on the east side of the track .. seems like it was tropical remnants interacting with a front? would be curious to learn more

SSW are tricky. Been hearing alot about it, especially since its so early in season. Not sure the benefits of it happening now if it did since its nov 2nd. Maybe higher elevations? Makes a difference. I am hopeful we can have one winter storm for us this winter.

Seems like we all agree it will be warm....just a matter of whether there will be a decent window or two.

TY In-Fa from Oct 27-31 maintained solid annular characteristics. It fit annular TC mode very well, meaning it remained basically steady-state structurally for an extended period ("truck tire") and stayed strong w/o much variance (no RI/RW) 115 to 130 kt during that time.

RIP Nam.

You can still hit up forest preserve trails for a walk or trek during the rain. I’ve done it a bunch during the winter/spring on those miserable <40 degree and rain/misty days. I’ve found the heavily forested areas even without leaves can shelter you from the raindrops a solid amount. Evergreens are your best friend year-round! If you ever need a spot to shake off some water on you or need a quick spot to dry off! Also nothing quite beats that lovely fresh rain smell you get inside of a forest preserve! Waterproof boots and a solid rain jacket are a must tho. Coupled with a thermos full of a hot liquid and you can enjoy yourself for an hour or two. After a while you just get used to the wetness and become a kid again out in nature. Preparation is key though. I walk dogs as a job throughout the year in all conditions rain snow or shine. I’ve learned over the years that eating a big meal beforehand really helps me stay warmer when I’m outside with the dogs.