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  2. Nice mid-level meso on that cell headed towards Fairfield County.
  3. Severe Watch Possible SWO from KWNS
  4. August was warmer than normal for most of the area using the warmest 1991-2020 climate normals.
  5. I've said that one way to cheat our way into a good winter is to get something like Dec 1997 pattern (pretty close to normal temps that month) but instead of Feb 1998, we get a more classic Nino Feb.
  6. That's an all-timer from the NAM3K
  7. The aren't, they are calling for post-tropical aka open wave
  8. August was near normal here. Seems like this guy lives in the Plains and west.
  9. This is a good thing...allowing more breaks of sun and stronger instability to build. There is a subtle pre-frontal trough back across eastern PA to west of the Hudson. This should slide east during the day and that's when we'll see storms develop across the Hudson and western MA/CT...at least this is what I ws envisioning yesterday occurring but guidance does show this eastward shift. I still think it will be an active day for western sections
  10. There's a 14" value somewhere in there. Gonna miss the crazy NAM.
  11. Total here for August: 8.12" including .28" that fell earlier this morning.
  12. Interesting they are calling for it to go subtropical as it approaches the lesser Antilles. Not sure that I've ever seen a subtropical sorry that far south
  13. Picked up .28" here in two rounds of fast moving T-Showers. Lots of thunder. Wow, school starting early. I can never remember going back until Tuesday or Wednesday after Labor Day. Driving around yesterday I saw some trees starting to show some color, not brown but reddish orange in spots. Fall is coming.
  14. had a quick shower here but everything's hitting a brick wall around the CT/NY border
  15. Beautiful morning on fire island
  16. Its a really good pattern for MCS developing across the Great Lakes and propagating ESE across the Northeast (whether that ends up being just to our southwest or more across northern VT/NH and ME). One thing really lacking is some stout EML advection, though the GFS does hint at some plumes of steeper lapse rates trying to move in at times but they lose their integrity. If we can get a clear signal for EML advection we could rock next week
  17. Record warm AUGUST across CONUS, who forecasted that?
  18. Congrats to the rest of the country. Don S post yesterday: Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (0.1° below normal).
  19. Pretty wild the NHC had to include this in its discussion this morning: The timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm is purely coincidental. Tropical storm and hurricane names for the North Atlantic Basin originate from six pre-determined rotating lists established by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV Hurricane Committee. The name Dolly replaced Diana after the 1990 hurricane season and was first used in 1996.
  20. Holy thunder & Lightning
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