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We snow

I havent looked yet, but im interested to see if the 12z euro hops on for sunday. It didnt have anything in the 6z run, but it looked like the 500 vorticity was starting to find some energy sunday afternoon

For fun, the cmc is setting up for some kind of winter event in the east during the window...

Euro op improving again for Saturday and euro AI trying to throw some weenies at us in the extended. Might favor interior but still nice to see.

Lobes of Stay Away vorticity dropping in to phase with Lowell PD into a full, fledged restraining order as we speak..

Euro really hammers Ashe and Allegheny counties!

Tip may be in front of Fox Hall as we speak.

It didn't get muted during the last thaw period in mid January..it was originally cold and tended milder, kind if like mid February at present.

Dare I say, a little nape flavor to the day?

The few encouraging 12z high resolution model runs puts everybody in the game.

And all of the pee stains. Nuked with yellow patches, lol

I bagged about 50lbs this morning.

The ones in the know … know

Euro doesn't look too bad for Friday night and Saturday. Not looking in at zoomed in but looks like maybe even a bit of an inverted trough into parts of RI/eastern CT? Probably be a good 2-3" region wide I'd think

The pack is indeed being roasted. 40.6 degrees. But like @SnowenOutThere said, hopefully this means a bust in our favor tonight. But who are we kidding? We have the HRRR+GFS prizewinning combo in our corner! This can't end badly.

Today running colder than yesterday. 26.3

12Z Euro: looks good in the Triad

Not that I think the gfs is right during the 14-16 period but it's warm/rainy because the initial wave draws up warmth for the follow up. A more consolidated shortwave timed correctly could work out. Way too far away to worry about fine details in op runs but the window has some things going for it to produce. A warm front/waa snow could do something and a decent track after the cold front could be even better. I'm probably too far south either way but there would be little surprise from me if it becomes a legitimate threat for the dmv. It's a typical luck/timing/chaos marginal setup.

Anyone have any ensemble data for mid month?

I like how if you get skunked on the Wed clipper, you likely make up for it with the Friday one and vice versa. I get zero from tomorrow's clipper. But the Friday one looks better.

All these posts and I thought we were lock for an inch of snow. And all I see are posts talking about the sun exploding and roasting our ice pack

Hurricane Schwartz new video says Groundhog is wrong, not 6 weeks of winter left.... He actually says this winter will last alot longer than normal this year likely into April due to the unusually strong negative and sustained AO, among other factors. Reminded viewers that the top 5 or 6 snowiest winters had severe negative AO, but not even nearly as strong nor sustained as 25-26.

43 on my PWS in NW.

GFS has 4-5 rounds of wintery type opps verbatim. OF COURSE I'm not suggesting that its happenin....but I am suggesting that its not over. No WAR evident, but no -NAO so its really a wait n see. All eyes west. ENS really show the flat flow for longer leads. Not convince the look gets worse either.

Finally broke freezing. 10 days and 18 hours.