All Activity

It's usually an awful model close to an event

One other point about the "if you don't exceed 4 inches by end of December, it's going to be a below average year" rule of thumb...you're kind of cheating if you use December to predict the full winter (which includes December). Much more meaningful test of predictive power would be "If you don't exceed 4 inches by the end of December, then the REMAINING portion of the winter would be below average. Obviously, with Nov+Dec generally not accounting for a very large proportion of the winter's snow, it's not a HUGE problem, but this like a less extreme version of saying "If a hitter is batting below .300 on September 1st, he's unlikely to hit .300"...obviously true, but not much of a prediction of what will happen

I hear ya. Hope you can make it for a bit. Family def. comes first.

NAMS looks awful for just about everyone

Flurries here in downtown Raleigh as of 9:50am

NAM trend .

yo yeah not sure yet. It may be a last minute thing. I have a huge family. Not sure if I've ever exposed this but I have 9 sisters and they all have demands of one another's time - including their sole bro. Since, truth be told, there are only 7 still living, that's like a political urgency to be ... anyway, there's a thing tomorrow - not sure how long. There's some conflict there.

Obligatory “looking out the window to gauge accumulation” picture, first one while in Montana. Still snowing, supposed to taper off by noon. Will my first official storm here (was back east for the Thanksgiving one) give me the foot-plus I’ve been chasing for like a decade? Still coming down good currently.

Would be funny if we all got a coating to an inch or less and it was all done before sunrise so no one saw a flake..

Still like 1-3” area wide…

1-3 seems like a good call this AM;

Once we get to Dec 17th, the SE will have had virtually every day colder than normal for 3 weeks. In addition, much of NC will have had 3 snows even though mainly minor. In the past few decades, only 2010 will have been clearly colder for that same period and 2002/2000 close, but none of those had 3 different snows in the RDU/GSO area. 1989 was the last time it was this cold and with 3 snows during this early period.

This has to be Colin or snowman19 2.0

timmy encouraging fantasies like you know that you believe that man can somehow actually impact our weather or climate would not be healthy to encourage you. I still live in the real world of facts. That said I love having you interact with my posts!! I get to live rent free in your head!!

We'll be nowcasting this one till the bitter end.

Looking more like a whiff at the moment. In the past, these snow bands have set up further north than modeled, but that's when there was a more negative tilt which would allow bands to often move further north than modeled. Can't do that hear due to the fast flow

Looking forward to a snowy weekend. We've had a great start to Winter... best I can remember in quite some time. Going to enjoy the deep snow pack this weekend before the warm up next week.

They salted the heck out the roads in Westminster. Probably for clouds

NAM definitely caving to the GFS .

Quick hitter on the NAM. Perfect timing, too. Coming at night with cold ground will give us instant stickage. And Ralph, if you had hair one on your jawn, you’d have started the Christmas blizzard thread already

AI was cold for a while around that time period and has since flipped....can't say I believe it anymore than any other model at this point.

1-3 inches is still a good call for NYC.

I know. That John Denver is really full of **** man.

'76-77 and 77-78 were just unreal for this Area. Theyveere great Northern like Winters. River's, Creeks and Ponds were frozen completely over and thick. You could walk on them ! Constant Cold. I'm thinking the MJO hung out in cold Phases. Blocking was strong in 76-77 but oddly the NAO was neutral to slightly positive. Strong -AO Both. Strong +PNA as well. Not surprising, '77-78 was my Snowiest Winter with 72" recorded just west of Pennington gap.

Yeah this has Bruce Willis flags with flow out of the NW from 850 and below.