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kinda skips around over us....it'll change

What are the odds of some thunder snow and lightning?

RAP has about 3 hours of snow for Wake before turning to sleet and then going back and forth with freezing rain and sleet.

Nam and gfs are both outliers in opposite ends of the spectrum. If you average them they cancel out and you get a decent solution.

There’s going to be a 6-8hr window where rates are at least 1” per hour. From about 15z to 00z.

This is correct. Wildly consistent

I think there’s definitely a path. Hard to nail down that warm tongue and air temps are very cold. I personally think it was an off run from the NAM. If it does that again tonight and we see some trending, then I’ll worry.

One of these right into your face ?

Given the topo, placement of normal CAD/wind direction, the attendant high(s) (apparently the high is going to split), spotty/showery initial nature of the precip, plus DPs/temps- latest NAM finally looks to be picking some granularity ....

more like 10-12" using liquid for immediate DC metro. we get dry slotted a bit .7 at 12:1 .7 at 3:1

LI is always on a razors edge. The warm nose never fails-it has hindered many a storm. Very rarely do we have storms on LI that do not get the warm nose

I think 8-12 in portland and southern maine is going to bust as well.

This is utterly wild.

Updated. Better: GFS RGEM HRDPS Worse: NAM RRFS ICON Held: GFSAI

GFS trying to bring the midweek snowshowers it seems

Warmer runs you can see the STJ pumping a little harder which helps keep primary a tad more juiced and hangin on longer. Thats my take anyways. GFS really is the best way to win this one and verbatim HH was a tough better once coastal pops as column cools and we are once again safe vertically speakin.

I definitely think we pound heavy snow for a while on Sun morning/afternoon. That's a ton of moisture coming north and being lifted.

@Scraff consuming this for HH

Reasonable near me. But a chance they bust too low in northern Bristol/Plymouth.

Nothing from MRX has been updated since 1:30 or so

RAP has snow here in Wake at 6:00 PM tomorrow night, while the others don't have precip here until after midnight.

Risky forecast giving a haircut on south shore down near PYM/Duxbury/GHG/Carver....while it's possible they get sleeted on, they could really stack it up from ocean enhancement too.

Mesonet stations out west showing temps really diving. Frostburg down to 20°, Bittinger down to 18°, with single digit wind chills.