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  2. dailylurker
    I'm pretty excited for winter. I'm one phone call away from closing a deal on a seasonal cabin rental at Barns Corner, NY. That's ground 0 on the Tug Hill. It's from Dec 1 to February 31. If my location isn't being hit directly I'll still be able to quickly get right where I'll need to be from base camp on the top of the hill. I won't be far from the Adirondacks if I need to get even higher up in elevation. Pretty exciting times.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    CANSIPS has the El Nino way too far west. Further north in the EPO domain has less to do with ENSO though, and lot of the colder temps on model are from ridging 60-90N on the Pacific side. A further east El Nino event would correlate more with trough in GOA, vs the spread out +PNA that it's showing with Nino 3.4 based El Nino. Even though it's not as cold, our biggest storms happen with GOA trough. Let's see it develop at all first though, the first half of Aug is projected to be the 7th consecutive -PNA month.
  4. Chrisrotary12
    Yep
  5. Brian5671
    NAMs are very pedestrian for Monday but it's the NAM
  6. kdxken
    Man or unmanned?
  7. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  8. kdxken
    Well SOMEONE cut a 350 ft gash in the reflecting pool. Probably used a box cutter... Or Buck knife
  9. cmillzz
    If the anticipated decay of the Niño occurs during that timeframe (or ideally later), it would favor another warm and active spring for the Midwest especially. I’ll take it.
  10. CAPE
    That's not typically a thing in an El Nino. And on a smoothed climate model depicting a long wave pattern over a 3 month period months in the future, the only thing that can be gleaned is the general idea and its somewhat subjective. There isn't really a notable signal for a -NAO on this panel imo. A -EPO.. yes.
  11. cmillzz
    Late July 2013 featured a legitimately impressive cold snap, with daytime highs barely reaching 60° in Madison, which was truly October-like. Today, by contrast, temperatures have already climbed into the 70s despite the rain and persistent northeast winds, so it's not really all that noteworthy. Though I suppose it may feel that way after the hot July we just had.
  12. ineedsnow
    @WxWatcher007 check this out.. pretty wild.. new way to check storm intensity? https://x.com/johndeanl/status/2083506132732231748
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, that plunge looks like 1973, 1988, 1998, 2010 territory. All of those years resulted in a backlash, strong la nina.
  14. cmillzz
    Take a look at their July temperature outlook, issued on the final day of June, and compare it to how the month actually played out. I'd take their monthly outlooks with a grain of salt.
  15. Today
  16. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  17. Great Snow 1717
    Not only do they get their news from truth social they believe the news..
  18. frontranger8
    Got smacked yesterday evening with a direct hit from a storm that was severe warned shortly after. Thankfully not much hail, but a 30 minute deluge that dropped .57". Great way to end the month.
  19. KakashiHatake2000
    Getting some blue skies and some sun here maybe that will help nice puffy cumulus clouds too also SPC had watch probabilities out includes middle TN southern ky .
  20. Spartman
  21. Birds~69
    May/should reach 90F.... 3:30pm
  22. Cyclone-68
    Are any models showing ‘38 revisited? I need something to get excited about. Beer and sex only work for so many years
  23. Weather Will
    I like not seeing a big SER linking with - NAO and showing a massive heat dome along the east coast....(WB latest seasonal CAnSIPs Jan.-Mar.)
  24. EasternLI
    This loop is impressive.
  25. GaWx
    CFS is at warmest yet! Nov peak +3.75 vs record +2.69! Also, still has a record crazy rapid plunge Dec-Mar! OND peak +3.5 vs record +2.52!
  26. frd
    Also, a sneaky cell moving NE, just East over the lower Delaware Bay East of the Milford Neck Wildlife area.
  27. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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