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March snow generally sucks here. Has to be some crazy set up we never seem to get. Especially after the time change.

18z EPS is SE of the 12z run too.

How has it verified say the last 2 winters?

Fog rolling in. Nothing would please me more than coming out of this rainy foggy week with a snowstorm on the weekend. Cautiously optimistic at this juncture.

Maybe he meant hysterical?

18z CMC looked great

I'd argue differently, So lets go with the CMC and ICON.

I'm expecting half an inch, Maybe a full one if I am lucky Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

That seems solid . If the flip to snow can occur earlier maybe Union or something can get 4”

Euro tries to develop 3 lows off VA beach as the whole system collapsed south. It wants to at least lol.

What always gets me is folks staring at an 18z vs a 12z model with 5 days to go and they get fired up that the 18z GFS has 31 inches of snow at ACY and only 3" at ABE....this is all model noise and meaningless! There will be a storm and there are many runs to go that will have it suppressed and those that have it going inland. Relax folks!

I’d argue the Euro doesn’t get or deserve much weight anymore

agreed

i'm with him; he's one of the more reliable mets out there. then again, when has the overall pattern really delivered for us in recent years? all i ever hear about is wasted cold.....

I'll know it coming if the euro has it coming, Outside of the GFS the other models mean little.

Oh, gimme a hug, grampy....let me help you get a grip

PS - I didn't realize 1959-60 and 1992-93 had such awful starts. Because they had excellent finishes.

That being said way too much wailing and knashing of teeth for a day 6-7 storm that has great support for a big un regionally. You’ve been around long enough.. you know this is coming

You mean, it IS (or was) showing nothing at 12Z?

Please and I mean this in the nicest way GFY.

I am still going for a miss at the moment. But obviously its still a ways out but if you asked me now what happens and need an answer I'd say this one whiffs

Hey this is some great info and you've done a lot of good work. I just came here to reformat the tables you made into code so that they're easier to read. But great work.

Still not seeing 18z how did it compare to 12z .

For some reason I'm not too worried about a complete whiff to the South or east. Temps are the main problem so we need a strong low with dynamics. A weak pos wont do it. Something about this looks different to me compared to recent fails.. maybe I am imagining things. Anyone want to take a stab at it? Other than the +PNA.

If that is true, then March is almost certainly going to finish with a positive temperature departure.