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so what makes the CanSIPS "not the greatest long range guidance" ??? - if you have anything greater post it here !

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 Western Atlantic: An area of low pressure is likely to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in a couple of days. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week while it drifts over the western Atlantic. The chances of subtropical development should end by the weekend when the system is expected to move eastward or northeastward into unfavorable environmental conditions. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. The too bullish as of late UKMET has had this for several runs fwiw.

The last run will be 06 UTC tonight. OMD has said that they have not done studies on the RRFS / REFS sensitivity to CAD wedges (and area that the NAM excels in) and just to put the icing on top. OMD has pulled the freezing rain and sleet accumulation products from the feed because it sucked so bad. https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-048_Updated_RRFS_and_REFS_Implementation.aaf.pdf NEW changes as of Oct 15, 2026 Updated to reflect adjustments to post-processing and product availability within RRFS and REFS, primarily replacing a model-generated, microphysics-based instantaneous precipitation type product with a diagnosed thermodynamic-based precipitation type calculation, and also removing accumulations of freezing rain and frozen rain (sleet) as output products. These changes are in response to an over-forecasting of freezing rain and under-forecasting of sleet within RRFS/REFS.

Looks like a quarter inch to 3" of rain

Don't disagree here ... But I'd just add, there only needs to be a spark to detonate an entire field of natural gas. Believe me, this year in particular, perhaps above all others, there is an ocean of gas. ...it's proven to be a part of the bounty that CC provides, anyway.. but now this on top. Forget snow or rain ... anything that happens could end up synergistically out of control production. Granted, we have to be cold enough if the discussion is snow-related... yes, there is a non-zero possibility that it is never cold enough, at least down here. I doubt it... but is so. I would never bank on that in alpine setting, either way ... maybe in 10 or 20 years of brick dipshits denialism succeeding in pushing the extinction event to the brink... But at this time, no. Otherwise, we may as well send up palm frowns to Caribou ME already. Short version, the same clipper in 1987, could product 33" these days, the specific physical mechanism is that CC and now this El Nino, pointing it's cosmic-scale hot anus at us... are ceiling the amount of water vapor can physically be in Earth's atmosphere. If cold is sniffable, it could snow that much by accident - whether it's 70 F a week later or not.

CanSIPS = not greatest LR guidance to put it mildly. Taken verbatim not a good look there. Would rather those positive anomalies more northward. Never been a fan of positive anomalies centered near Hudson Bay to get cold air in here especially with this overall warm background state. It does limit cutting of systems into the GL though. Implied split flow there with active northern and southern storm tracks. Lack of cold air would be the main problem. No cross polar flow to seed cold air into Canada. If anything Canada looks to be dominated by milder Pacific Air. This is why I'm not relying on SSW/PV split to deliver much for later Nov. into Dec. SSW/PV vortex splits are dicey on what they produce and where in the best of situations. Raging Nino will likely overcome this upcoming SSW/PV split. CanSIPS aside there is ample evidence from other LR guidance for a December with AN temperatures and precipitation. Snowfall for our area will have to depend of a well tracked and well timed system with whatever cold air becomes available. Keeping my expectations low. We're going to have to get lucky this winter to see above normal snowfall. Having said that one well timed coastal with a good track could get us there. That is the wildcard this coming winter. IMO. In the meantime looking forward to the late week rains for a chance of pace.

This will be a big help for the drought conditions

https://papers.jcohler.com/keeling

ensembles rock solid on positive anomalies in our source region and the pac jet about to start doing classic nino things out west

The future is bleak for America.

Thanks, Chris. Thus based on the latest week, here’s how much lower the official relative is vs the non-relative: 1+2: 0.8 3: 0.7 3.4: 0.9 4: 1.2 So, the differences overall have been rising due to the steady warming of the global tropical waters.

The real concern is, Hopefully the stuff replacing them are better.

RIP NAM today is the last day. No more getting NAMD with snow before a big storm.

Looking ahead to early winter - plenty of blocking up north but need the ridge to expand further west into western Canada to allow colder air in - will have an active storm track across country - storm tracks uncertain but blocking favors storms not being able to cut that much

older nam had 80 inch for some storms..

Thanks, Adam. Impressive! What is the second warmest in history for 3.4 absolute ~Nov 1st and what year?

The extreme east based warm pool and forcing is better reflected by the actual ONI values. Nino 1+2 continues to set records along with the other regions. Now up to +5.4 on the week. The BOM RONI is at +6.04 in its Nino 2 region. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ 28OCT2026 26.7 5.4 29.5 4.4 30.2 3.4 30.1 1.4

BWI: 19.0" DCA: 12.0" IAD: 21.0" RIC: 9.0" SBY: 3.5"

The preliminary global mean surface temperature for October 31 was 14.980C. That would break the daily mark of 14.831C from 2024. October 2026 finished as the warmest October on record. Following the record warm October, 2026 ranks as the second warmest year on record (ERA-5).

And looking at 3.4’s absolute temperature, it is over 30C (over 86F) for weeks now, which is the highest ever in recorded history… EDIT: @GaWx The 2nd highest absolute temperature ever recorded for region 3.4 was back in November of 2015 at over 29C

Going to miss the 30 inch snowfall maps

November 2 1938: A tornado touches down at Nashwauk in Itasca County. Many livestock killed. 1842: A mild spell occurs at Ft. Snelling, where the temperature rises to 60 degrees. For Monday, November 2, 2026 1946 - A heavy wet snow began to cover the Southern Rockies. Up to three feet of snow blanketed the mountains of New Mexico, and a 31 inch snow at Denver CO caused roofs to collapse. (David Ludlum) 1961 - The temperature at Atlanta, GA, reached 84 degrees to establish a record for November. (The Weather Channel) 1966 - A storm brought 18 inches of snow to Celia KY in 24 hours. It tied the state 24 hour snowfall record first established at Bowling Green. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A dozen cities, mostly in the Ohio Valley, reported record high temperatures for the date. Record highs included 83 degrees at Paducah KY and 84 degrees at Memphis TN. Temperatures reached 70 degrees as far north as southern Lower Michigan. Showers and thundershowers over southern Florida, associated with a tropical depression, produced 4.77 inches of rain at Tavernier, located in the Upper Florida Keys. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A very intense low pressure system brought heavy rain, snow, and high winds, to parts of the northeastern U.S. Portland ME established a record for November with 4.52 inches of rain in 24 hours, and winds along the coast of Maine gusted to 74 mph at Southwest Harbor. Heavy snow blanketed parts of northern Vermont and upstate New York, with 15 inches reported at Spruce Hill NY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Squalls in the Upper Great Lakes Region the first three days of the month buried Ironwood MI under 46 inches of snow, and produced 40 inches at Hurley WI. Arctic cold invaded the Southern Plains Region. Midland TX reported a record low of 22 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 2 Mon Job Action Day 2 Mon International Day to End Impunity for Crimes against Journalists 2 Mon Recreation Day 2 Mon All Souls' Day 2 Mon Arrival of Indentured Labourers 2 Mon Be the Impact Day 2 Mon Broadcast Traffic Professionals Day 2 Mon Dynamic Harmlessness Day 2 Mon Look for Circles Day 2 Mon National Deviled Egg Day 2 Mon National Ohio Day

Sad day

With the long range drying out considerably, we now look to come close to the driest year on record at GSO