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Saturday looks like shite, maybe Sunday can be somewhat salvaged - But we can do a lot better on Father's Day.

i actually suggest it is useful to do that - not just a bias evidence. i was just smirking that we've been low-balling if not failing heat since last november really. i've actually been seeing evidence of winter 'structure' to the super synoptic behavior, just doing so at 30 to 40 dm higher. weirdly long wave lengths and useful pna prognostics is not very summer like, so we get what we get from that. try to spare the long winded digression ( no pun intended) but the fast flow associated with blazing equatorial and sub-equatorial heights would be the most suspect factor in keeping the jet alive due to +d(gz) at mid and upper latitudes... anyway, in deference to that being the case ... i believe these odd-ball cold lobes in ontario like these long range gfs have some principle value to them. i mean they're not going to be right per se, just in concept in other words. that's an important heat signal in that ~19th + time range out there but we'll see.

Records: Highs: EWR: 99 (2017) NYC: 96 (1961) LGA: 101 (2017) JFK: 95 (1983) Lows: EWR: 51 (1982) NYC: 51 (1953) LGA: 51 (1982) JFK: 51 (1980) Historical: 1889 - Forest fires in northern Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota were in the process of destroying millions of dollars of board feet of timber. (David Ludlum) 1907 - The temperature at Tamarack, CA, dipped to 2 degrees above zero, the lowest reading of record for June for the U.S. The high that day was 30 degrees. Tamarack received 42 inches of snow between the 10th and the 13th. On the 13th the snow depth was 130 inches. (The Weather Channel) 1955: Water from the Spring Mountains swept down on Las Vegas, NV after a violent thunderstorm of rain and hail, virtually isolating the City, flooding hundreds of homes and stores and causing an untold amount in property damage. Residents of the Twin Lakes Subdivision reported that a four-foot wall of water came down from the slope of Mt. Charleston. Hardest hit was the Brentwood Park Tract, where large stocks of lumber, stacked for construction on new homes, were washed away by the flood, and littered the Municipal Golf Course and Twin Lakes Subdivision. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1956: Boston, Massachusetts recorded peak gust of 84 mph gusts during a thunderstorm. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1967: Three separate lines of thunderstorms developed and raced across eastern South Dakota. The storms dumped up to 5 inches of rain and hail the size of golf balls was common. Winds gusted to 71 mph in the Aberdeen area resulting in some damage. Crop damage was 100% in some areas in the northeast due to the relentless hail and flooding rains. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1968: A violent F5 tornado killed 9 people at Tracy, MN. Over 110 homes were destroyed, while a steel I-beam was reportedly carried for 2 miles on a piece of roof. Two farms hit by this tornado were also hit by a violent F4 tornado on 6/24/1924.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1969: 10 inches of snow fell in Deerfield, SD as an unusual late season storm covered parts of South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana and Nebraska. Five inches of snow was measured at Great Falls, MT. The low temperature at Billings, MT fell to 32°, their latest freeze on record. The temperature also fell to 32° the previous day; both tying a record low for the month of June. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1976: A deadly tornado moved across parts of the southwestern Chicago, IL suburbs killing two people and injuring 23 others. The tornado, with winds over 200 mph moved from Lemont to Downers Grove causing $13 million dollars in damage when 89 homes were destroyed and another 90 were damaged. The tornado passed over the Argonne National Laboratory, peeling part of a roof off the building housing a nuclear reactor. The tornadoes movement was rather erratic moving southeast the north and finally turning northwest. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1984 - Severe thunderstorms struck Denver deluging the city with five inches of rain, and leaving up to six feet of water in some places. Softball size hail smashed windshields and ripped through metal cars. Snow plows had to be called out. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including International Falls, MN, with a reading of 92 degrees. Mason City IA and Waterloo IA reported record highs of 100 degrees. Thunderstorms in the northeastern U.S. produced golf ball size hail around Hamilton Square NJ, along with high winds which tore the roof off a hospital causing a million dollars damage. Averill Park NY was deluged with 1.64 inches of rain in fifteen minutes. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Afternoon thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern and Central Plains Region. Forrest NM was deluged with 5.5 inches of rain in ninety minutes. Temperatures soared into the 90s across much of the eastern half of the nation, including New England. Northern Illinois reported a record twenty straight days of dry weather. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Southern Plains Region to the Carolinas during the day and night, and continued to drench parts of Texas and Oklahoma with heavy rain. Oklahoma City reported 13.41 inches of rain for the first thirteen days of the month, and Fort Worth TX reported 29.56 inches for the year, a total more than 13 inches above normal. Severe drought continued to rage across South Texas. (The National Weather Summary) 1991: Lightning struck a tree at the U.S. Open Golf Tournament being held at Chaska, MN. One spectator was killed, and six others were injured. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1993: Four inches of rain fell in one hour on Lenox, IA as the Great Mississippi Flood of 1993 was beginning. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1994: A series of violent thunderstorms roared across parts of western and central New York. The thunderstorm winds downed trees and power lines. A tornado touched down in the town of Freedom. Damage was intermittent along the mile long path, with only tree damage for the first 3/4 mile. Over its last quarter mile the tornado destroyed a 25 x 25 foot garage. The tornado then struck the Pleasantview Mobile Home Park. A roof which was blown off one mobile home penetrated the wall of another home about 200 feet away. Two other mobile homes were lifted and moved off their foundations. The thunderstorms dropped between two and four inches of rain which produced flash flooding. One hundred basements were flooded in Jamestown. Damage from flash flooding was extensive in Allegany State Park in Cattaraugus County. Two recreational bridges collapsed and other major bridges were undermined. Beaches were damaged extensively and roads were washed out. In one instance, the blacktop from one road was carried over 20 feet. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2002: As thunderstorms roared through Ponca City, OK with lots of large hail and wall clouds, lightning caused a fire at a Conoco refinery. The news immediately sent gasoline futures higher by 50 points. The refinery was back on line quickly, but gasoline prices rose a few extra cents in time for the Fourth of July Holiday. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2005: Low pressure, the remnants of Hurricane Arlene, moved northeast across the Great Lakes. The bands of showers and thunderstorms produced damage across parts of the Niagara Frontier and Finger Lakes. Heavy rains produced flash flooding in Livingston County, an area which received heavy rains on several consecutive days. The strong winds downed trees and limbs in Le Roy, Stafford, Mendon, Livonia, Lockport, Kendall, and Clarkson. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

the worst

The NCAR AI convective page is highlighting some impressive severe potential next Thursday...honestly very impressed with how robust it is this far out...(link below) https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ

74 / 53 breaks in the clouds for now. Cooler today highs in the low 80s with enough sun in the warmest areas. Clouds arriving on schedule for the weekend with a cloud filled cool onshore flow. Highs near or below 70 Saturday / Sunday and while the brunt of ht heaviest rain will stay south with the front still 0.5 - 1.00 in the highest places mainly south. Mon / Tuesday not much better with hung up front lingering , 70s and chance of rain/ showers any sun shine will get us mid 70s or near 80. Clearing out later on Tuesday and setting up a much warmer to hotter close to the week as we enter into a much warmer period that transitions to hotter with western heat building north and east by the 20th and beyond. Still could feature frequent storms chances around the rim of the ridge but hotter finish to the month continues to be focussed 6/20 - beyond. 6/13 : near 80 clouds increase 6/14 - 6/17 : Judy Collins clouds got in the way - cool - rain / heaviest stays south 0.5 or + 6/18 - 6/19 : Warmer / drier near / slightly above normal 6/20 - beyond : Ridge pushes higher heights and heats builds into the east. - Hotter / still wet

Picked up .52 yesterday and 1.54 since midnight. Looks like a wet 4 or 5 days coming up.

meanwhile, that's a hot signal between the 19th and 25th. all the operational models are coherently ejecting/repositioning +2+ standard deviation height anomalies closer to 90 e, well teleconnected with the major index modes in that time range. trend of verification low-balling the original warm signals, if not fail, has been observable - since last november that's been going on, actually. interesting subplot. we'll see if this one has legs.

It's been a COC week with fans house is perfect

6z Euro .5 .6 it is usually right day before

Yeah, I am near the CT Shoreline and get great sea breezes. Yesterday was my warmest day of the season so far at 89° with more westerly flow that we have been getting recently. Only had 9 days reach 90° last year. There is also better radiational cooling here than I used to get back on the LI South Shore.

10 more days the GFS will start pimping seasonal change on every D10 solution ... it can't wait to get past the solstice every year and then it thinks it's October 15

33 more days the GFS goes out to August 1st and we can put the hottest month behind us

that actually looks like an unusually dry air mass everywhere, with local wv forcing from evaporation post green up tainting DPs into the 40s to me.

Patience!

Where I live now it seems like the worst of both worlds-we get the high humidity being somewhat close to the shore but it’s able to heat up a lot before the seabreeze eventually gets here by 4-5pm sometimes. Springs can be brutal in Long Beach but it’s nice to have low 80s there while the city, N Shore and inland are well into the 90s and sweltering. I was in TX a couple weeks ago and felt that kind of heat again-not a fan whatsoever of being soaked in sweat within 5 minutes being outside.

Man I hate putting dogs down. Gotta 12 year old Newfie and her old hips are finally giving out. Actually she's a Landsear, she looks like a dairy cow (and is damn near as big as one lol). She's getting to the point it takes her 6 or 7 tries to get her ass up. Would never tell if she's in pain. I've heard that dog whimper or whine like 0 times in her life, even as a pup. I've accidentally stepped on her fat foot a few times and she just stares at me like "dumbass". Hit her with a tractor when she chased a rabbit in front of me. Knocked her over, thought I killed her. She just got up, shook it off, not a sound, and looked at me with the "dumbass" look. Her names Red appropriately. Was hoping she'd get to see snow one more time but she's not gonna make it through another summer of heat. Just sucks.

If we get a normal/cool, wet summer, that sure is different from any summer in years. Hopefully, that means a better winter. P.s. Sorry Voyager

Just posted in the MA forum and that's what the Cfs2 is showing. It's been showing it since late May too.

Don't know if anyone bothers to look at it much, but the Cfs2 has been advertising a non-hot summer for weeks insisting on a trough in the east. I know the Cfs2's track record has been sketchy, but it's been showing this since late May, so it deserves some credence. Add to that June temps to date, and I'd give it the benefit of the doubt at this point. This is a link to July temps and beyond. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025061218&fh=1 P.s. it's showing a wet July and August too.

Doesn’t look like much rain at all this weekend. Maybe the Jack gets .20. Certainly better than it looked a few days ago even if cloudy and cool

I did not

Yeah, this is why I like living near the shoreline. I used to get a great sea breeze back on the South Shore of LI. Now I get the local sea breezes off the Long Island Sound.

He’s the president of ACATT

Of course he posts long range gfs ops.