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Thanks Larry. While the UKMET and ICON are further offshore, even those scenarios would likely lead to significant beach erosion/coastal flooding issues from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic and even possibly southern New England, due to 5+ days of strong onshore flow driven by the gradient between the 1030-1035 mb high and the low to the south. Despite "only" having a ~1000 mb low, ICON shows an ~850 mile fetch of near gale force (30 kt+) E/NE winds from all the way out around 63W to the Carolinas! Also of note, the UKMET (like a few other models including AIFS) shows ridging rebuilding over the NE US/far NW Atlantic between day 6 and 7), which would likely trap the system and possibly force it back westward beyond day 7. In terms of coastal flooding, it could be argued that a solution like the UKMET and ICON (or 6Z AIFS) with a low moving offshore but very slowly could be as bad or even slightly worse than a solution like the ECMWF or 12Z AIFS - which have a low much closer to the East Coast, but it doesn't strengthen notably and never really has much time to sit over the Gulf Stream.

Why run? Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Full on soaker in Pen-Mar. Approaching .2". Daytime (not counting midnight high) high of 58 today and could get 85-90 tomorrow. Quite the jump. It should never hit 85 the second half of Oct :-).

Nice corridor of frost/freeze headlines!

Yeah there are definitely people going to see some 20s this weekend. My forecast highs and lows keep getting revised down this weekend. Going to be very windy and a cold weekend.

You can compare, just not a side-to-side comparison. To compare you'd need a bit of a complex statistical analysis

I was 30 last week with a higher thickness setting going in tho. I dunno.. we're in the time of year where the land battery doesn't get charged during the day. yeah, the sun feels warm and given the right conditions, we can go above average... by quite a bit even. but even on those types of afternoons, the sun kisses the tree tops in the w and it's 10 off the high really fast. I noticed that just the other day when we were 75 for high and it was 64 on dusk.

Light rain here over the past 20 min.

The NAO is higher on today’s GEFS mean vs that of two days ago: two days ago: peaking 10/15 at +1.0 and then dropping to -1 Today peaks not til 10/19 and with that being up at +1.3 and then drops only to -0.7 followed by a quick bounce that gets back up to -0.2 on 10/27 vs it still being down at -0.9 on 10/27 two days ago @Stormchaserchuck1

hm If we decouple there's going to be brick off the edge falls tho

Only about 0.2" for the storm.

So what you’re saying is this years is very easy, and maybe they get the easy one correct? But last year was more difficult, and they flunked it.

Just like the GFS has a bias to overmix I also think it has a bias of going a bit too extreme under radiational cooling conditions.

If you can’t compare to what really happens ..then what good are they? That’s comical.

Also, those forecasts are probabilistic so "technically" you can't really compare them to what happened at face value.

MOS is pretty cold Sun AM. Seems a little overdone in spots.

Enjoy

To be fair it’s a basic strong nino forecast. Compare this year’s to 23-24 and 15-16 and then what the actuals were.

Currently 91/71 for a feels like of 98. Is it really October?

Not far off here. Unfortunate about tomorrow's degrader. One of the best years in many.

Windshield wiper. GFS finally onboard with it too, tho weak and offshore

I don’t necessarily have an issue with the depiction of low heights and a cut off over the southeast trying to form a coastal, but last night’s euro was absurd lol.