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70 here

That was basically winter here. 31 inches here with the blizzard

Safe to say morning clouds/debris will not be an issue. Time to build instability and a strong cap.

My fear as well. Originally looked like it would break down this week. That certainly did not come to fruition as this weekends cold front will be dry

By the time this heat wave is in the books on Sunday, every leaf on every species will be out

Also, thinking they may go MDT with the 1630z update

Lot of urban areas have them. Easy for them to grow as sidewalk trees. But they spreading. I wasn’t joking though, these things have been getting slaughtered left and right over the last 10 years or so with some of these storms that we’ve got. They aren’t the strongest.

Yes from outflow boundaries as well as a strong low level jet pushing in from the southwest.

82

79°

Not where you are. LI, Ct maybe. Models are going back and forth with the fronts location. Quite uncertain how far southwest this gets. WX/PT

In strong el ninos, the summer before it is usually cooler, and the summer after it is usually warmer, in the East. The only time that didn't happen was 91-92, which was affected by a major volcano (Pinatubo). [Interesting to note that besides 1991, the only other pre-nino summer that was warmer than average was 2015. Both 1991 and 2015 were borderline warm neutral/weak el nino events. The summers of 1990 and 2014 were considerably colder than the summers of 1991 and 2015.] Pre-strong nino/post-strong nino summer average temps (PHL) since 1970 72-73: pre-nino summer 72 (73.9); post-nino summer 73 (77.1) 82-83: pre-nino summer 82 (73.0); post-nino summer 83 (75.7) 86-88: pre-nino summer 86 (75.3); post-nino summer 88 (77.1) [summer 87 during the el nino was 76.5] 91-92: pre-nino summer 91 (77.9); post-nino summer 92 (74.0) 97-98: pre-nino summer 97 (74.2); post-nino summer 98 (75.7) 09-10: pre-nino summer 09 (75.1); post-nino summer 10 (79.6) 15-16: pre-nino summer 15 (77.7); post-nino summer 16 (78.8) 23-24: pre-nino summer 23 (75.8; although JAS was 76.1); post-nino summer 24 (78.5)

2% Tornado ...Northeast... A low-amplitude disturbance associated with an ongoing MCS near Lake Ontario this morning will move east into the Northeast during the day. Cloud breaks and low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a destabilizing airmass by midday. Veering and strengthening winds with height will support storm organization, including the potential for supercells. Eventually a band of storms is forecast to evolve by mid-late afternoon with wind damage being the primary risk. Have introduced low hail/tornado probabilities to account for hazards associated with supercells.

Fast growing…outcompete natives. They wake up earlier and get a headstart shading out others. They spread their seed more than Ray.

Beautiful light show last night here, went and sat out in a field for ~90 minutes, with constant lightning 20-40 miles away, first from the cell that moved through Saginaw, and then new stuff that back built from it, probably off of outflow?

Recall in January 2016 we had the big blizzard in January, and then a record arctic surge around V-Day.

73 ... might be able to add a tick or even two before the 10:05 "10 after 10" is mid 80s. The old standard ...ha.

I know Chuck disagrees, but I don't think it matters much....it will be very warm. I think keeping it more west-focused, like 2015, just gives a better shot at a big storm and a cold interval or two.

yeah, why? Just curious. Trees/forestry science isn't my bag. Like at all. Complete dolt. I'm just curious what their 'pernicious' quotient is. Threatening native diversity? it seems to me they are a new members, so that increased the diversity. Unless you mean something else ...

Totally agree with you. Luckily, because I live in such a violent weather area, mother nature has been taken them out slowly.

Islip is already at or above 70

Yep, pattern change brings us back to reality next week. Enjoy the summer preview for now. .

56 overnight, 76 already

They’re giant weeds that threaten the native diversity. Kill’em with fire.

Where are my Calvert County folks? @usedtobe We've got one more station coming shortly in Prince Frederick.