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It’s looking pretty good to be honest with convection continuing to fire and clear spin. It’s a robust disturbance.

Not much of a breeze in the city iso it feels warmer than the 83 it is

Yeah this place is a sausage party. At least the weather is nice!

Pretty nicely organized LLC per recon.

I did not have that happen to me. That must’ve been quite an experience.

Blasphemy

This strong breeze is so nice

The trend is your friend. The 12z EPS picking up some intense outcomes is quite interesting. I'm wondering if the 18z GEFS shows more. I think this could be the most interesting storm to keep an eye this season so far...

Did you get the weird blurry vision? I was sitting at a red light. I thought my vehicle was breaking down. Than my eyes got blurry when I noticed everything dancing like a mushroom trip. I jumped out of the vehicle so I could feel the earth under my feet. I encouraged others and a couple other dudes jumped out too lol

We’re apparently about to have TS Fernand a few hundred miles SSE of Bermuda. Also, Invest 99L is significantly more active on the 12Z Euro ens as it gets to the W Caribbean in ~a week. If it actually does develop there, watch out!

It appears they’re going right to TS Fernand based on this: AL, 06, 2025082318, , BEST, 0, 266N, 617W, 35, 1010, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 90, 0, 0, 1015, 110, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FERNAND, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, TRANSITIONED, alB02025 to al062025,

Clouded up a bit here in CNJ in the last hour. As seen on the vis loop, should move through S->N

Hotter than expected. High of 86f Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

I just remember my cup of water shaking like it was Jurassic Park.

It’ll be a nice and warm fall and I’m sure we’ll have some hot days in there, but we’ve stepped down. It’s undeniable.

These dews are just the chefs kiss on the day.

That’s why so many people are moving out to the Desert Southwest. Many people are OK with the extreme summer heat and drought. Then they can take weekend ski trips during the winter to get their fill of snow and cold.

We do?

That’s a really good point. As I saw it the two big killers right now would have been vorticity stretching and the drier air/SAL. So far 99L has held on. Would’ve been much harder to do if it wasn’t so organized. Now that’s interesting. GEFS have very little, if any, signal.

had a yard work day, wasn’t expecting to see 90. I’m toast

Not to brag, well maybe just a little, but it has been a good summer for moisture up here. I closed out July with 2.3”. It has been a bit dry in mid August but have picked up .4” recently and I am rather optimistic for more over the next few days.

We’re going to pay dearly for this pleasant weather in Sept and Oct aren’t we?

85/50 here.

In addition to the 12Z Icon being still another of its runs developing this in the W Caribbean, the 12Z Euro ens is significantly more active: