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^Hopefully that Pacific doesn't come to be. I can see that being a 40N pattern. Neutral H5 Alaska and cold NW Canada is sneaky surface level warm air.

Updated this morning

Actually GFS AI is very similar to op GFS at both 500mb and sfc low positions. It's the precip shield that's a bit different, but I don't trust AI models on precip. I trust them more on 500mb and storm tracks

Yeah strong signal on the GEFS

WB 6Z GEFS ticked north compared to 0Z.

I've seen totals like like that on a 300+ map, but holy....

@CAPE what do we do with this?

Come home, big dog….come. Home.

GEFS continues to improve

24 hours of white smoke

The gfs is nice. But it's not leading the pack. Let's see what the euro does today. The northern solutions (cmc, UK) are the fly in the ointment . Let's see them take a step this direction.

DT-WxRisk ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬ Follow 0Z TUES UKMET/ EURO ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL MAPS: these maps are based on 10 to 1 snow ratios. Jan 24-25 will see arctic air in Mid Atlantic/ TN valley so these snow maps could be UNDERDONE #wxtwitter #vawx #mdwx #wvwx #dcwx #pawx #phlwx #rvawx #ncwx #rduwx #njwx #nywx #nycwx #ohwx #kywx #tnwx 4:49 AM · Jan 20, 2026 Everybody can reply 1 repost 11 likes 1 1 ‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬ · 55m 1 Join the conversation Create account

Another for the collection

We picked up 0.75” here. Did not expect anything more than a dusting.

Whew, that's a relief! Remember earlier estimates for ZR south of Virginia were horrific.

I guess the fly in the ointment is that we basically have a non storm with GFS AI.

Goooooooood morning weather nerds! Here’s your reminder to please keep the memes/gif’s/one liners and whatever random thoughts you have, contained to the appropriate thread. Please add discussion to your posts and maps. Not everyone will know where your backyard is and this will be a very high impact event for a lot of peeps who deserve accurate information. We are the best AMWX has to offer after all Most importantly ya’ll take your meds, practice your breathing skills, use a different finger or thumb for consistent refresh rates of model runs, drink plenty of water, sleep when you can and enjoy the madness we’ve all missed for too long now

Well foothill crew. Another day closer. Can’t believe the totals the models are throwing out there. 2018, 2009, 1996, 1993, 1988 sort of storm if things stay on track.

CFS

06z GFS moved north a bit and increased precip totals. Also inched mix line north again.

All systems go. This agreement is something we haven’t seen in a very long time. A few more days of wobble watching.

Has anyone checked the weeklies? I don’t even see an end to winter on them

The cold after... serious issues for those without power.