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I think I may have seen a like singular flake but I may have hallucinated it. This is what happens when I don't start the thread

Meanwhile, the 18z GFS allows us to dream a little dream by showing a snow chance on Christmas Day! My dream has always been to watch the kids open their presents enjoy a nice holiday feast & then let it snow in the late afternoon through Christmas night. The GFS just showed exactly that scenario… which I will enjoy for a few hours, lol.

Geez, I miss so much driving my truck. Must be a lot of post deletions. What all happened?

it was cold again around Valentine's Day (DCA got down into the low teens, highs in the 20s).

I remember the only cold week that entire winter was the week leading up to the big storm. The day after the storm was the last cold day that winter. The week after the storm was in the 60's and it didn't really get cold again.

Interesting graphic by the NWS. Seems like its all gonna depend on the banding.

Latest from LWX:

that was a weird winter, but still good IMO. For NYC - biggest snowstorm in history plus the last time Central Park got below zero. Still warm, yes, but those events save it IMO.

Eskimo Joe is a sick human being lol

Here's my first call, going a little bit on the aggressive side with the band that sets up over I-95. I think that the regional models (NAM/RDPS/RRFS etc..) have a better handling on how this storm will do has there will be important mesoscale features determining total snowfall that the global models just aren't able to resolve. My thinking is that hypothetically if the banding can really get going along I-95 then NW and SE areas wouldn't do as well because of the subsidence that would result

uh no - that was one of the greatest snowstorms in recent history for the Mid Atlantic. NYC's all time 24hr snowfall.

I barely talk to my next door neighbors…nevermind 3 houses up.

It's Belichick After Jordan threw him out of the house.

I still like my call of 1 to 3 for the LSV with a few lucky spots in York or Lancaster getting 4. The lower amounts of the range are likely to be north & west of Harrisburg. The higher end of the range is favored towards eastern York & Lanco. I think MDT has a decent chance of getting 2 inches. The RGEM & the Euro AI have been consistent the last couple of days & most closely resemble my current thoughts on this event.

Well yeah I know it's technically "not important" but pardon me for merely being curious--I always wonder about the little things others don't think "matter"--just my nature. And in this case...clippers have been extinct for a decade so I was just wondering if this would count as the first since then

GEFS continuing the semi-interesting look going into Xmas Eve/Xmas. It’s obviously not your ideal coastal storm pattern but we’ve seen some interesting winter wx systems on looks like the below…overrunning snow/SWFE/potential ice…something to watch…you get a ripple or vort energy being shot across the center of the CONUS and it runs into that brick wall north of New England

Mason NH

Yes we had that in Hoboken too

18z ai with a Christmas miracle

True, but its really no different than the other crowd during periods of cold. We will start to see random posts about warmth elsewhere on the planet.

It's really not that important- but if you want to call it a clipper, that's fine.(not sure what a 'regular system' is exactly). It is a NS wave moving along an Arctic boundary, with some interesting mid/upper level dynamics at play. Not all 'clippers' behave the same way.

We’ll see how this plays out but the warnings in the southern counties feels “aggressive”. 6-10” with “localized higher amounts”? Just doesnt feel like there is that kind of moisture to work with, despite the ratios

Agree 100% on the Wednesday clipper being a classic example the difference the hills make. Although until that system DTW & White Lake were neck and neck.

Similar here. 3" of frozen crust. At least it's still white.

@Chris78 Just got to Deep Creek…when we drove past Wisp, guns were blazing all over the mountain.