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If everything else is showing something..send that POS to the glue factory. It’ll catch on at some point. JOM(“just another model” now).

Hey!! I took almost the exact same pic when the bay froze up in 2015. At least I think it was 2015.

Good job Will! You may post in the other thread. Less snow map posts and more of this.

18z AI GFS crushes

Facts

Thank you for the explanation.

Current contest standings temps to be confirmed at end of day and must survive Monday also tiebreaker needed refers to method placing forecast ahead of tied total error below it (if any) Consensus is ranked but does not affect following ranks. Rank _FORECASTER (order of entry) ___________ MAX _ MIN __ Temp errors __ snow __ tiebreaker needed _01___CPcantmeasuresnow (12) ________________ 17 ___ 3 _____ 0,0 _ 0 ________ 1.4" _02___Tony (via RJay post) (15) _________________ 17 ___ 2 _____ 0,1 __ 1 ________ 0.6" ___ snow _03___bkviking (14) _____________________________ 17 ___ 4 _____ 0,1 __ 1 _________ 0.7" _04___RJay (18) _________________________________ 16 ___ 4 _____ 1,1 __ 2 _________ 0.2" ___ snow _05___Roger Smith (19) __________________________16 ___ 4 _____ 1,1 __ 2 _________ 0.6" _06___DonSutherland1 ( 1 ) ______________________17 ___ 6 _____ 0,3 __ 3 ________ 0.2" _07___Northshorewx ( 7 ) _______________________ 16 ___ 6 _____ 1,3 __ 4 ________ 0.4" ___ snow _08___dmillz25 (10) ______________________________19 ___ 5 _____ 2,2 __ 4 ________ 0.7" _09___SACRUS ( 3 ) _____________________________20 ___ 5 _____ 3,2 __ 5 ________ 0.4" ___ snow _(10)____ Consensus (mean of entries) ________ 19 ___ 6 _____ 2,3 __ 5 _______ 0.5" ___ lower max temp error _10___snowman19 (17) __________________________ 21 ___ 2 _____ 4,1 __ 5 _________ 0.5" ___ snow _11___IYC77 ( 6 ) ________________________________ 18 ___ 7 _____ 1,4 __ 5 ________ 0.8" ___ snow _12___TriPol ( 9 ) _________________________________ 18 ___-1 _____ 1,4 __ 5 ________ 1.3" _13___Stormlover74 (11) _________________________ 19 ___ 7 _____ 2,4 __ 6 ________ 0.4" _14___coastalplainsnowman ( 2 ) ________________19 ___ 9 _____ 2,6 __ 8 _________0.75" _16___wxallannj ( 8 ) ____________________________ 21 ___ 8 _____ 4,5 __ 9 ________ 0.2" ___ snow [email protected] ( 4 ) ___________ 20 ___ 9 _____ 3,6 __ 9 ________ -- -- _17___Prue11 ( 5 ) _______________________________ 21 ___ 9 _____ 4,6 ___10 ________ Tr ___ best snow forecast so far _18___Rwes1 (13) _______________________________ 22 ___ 8 _____ 5,5 ___10 ________ 0.1" ___ _19___PositiveEPOEnjoyer (16) __________________24 ___ 8 _____ 7,5 ___ 12 _______ 0.5" ===================== <<< to be confirmed or adjusted >>>

Off topic Thank you for your service. I retired as Navy enlisted. Turned down LDO, as I like hands on. I've worked with SPECOPS and Seal team 2. Getting ready to retire from Federal government. Thank you for the advice.

But that says Wednesday 2/11..?

I’m just a weenie, so much of this discussion is over my head. But let’s see if I have the basic gist… As the season progresses and daylight increases and the sun angle rises and spring approaches, it’s gonna warm up? MIND BLOWN!!

Reggie solid

Puppy bowl all day

As we all do, I have several gay friends. If you're not comfortable in your own skin and being called fruity is gonna offend you, then like I said, it's gonna be a tough life. He/she was complaining about michigan posters talking about weather so I suggested they open their own thread. I run away from the cold cause I can. Don't lie and say you wouldn't if you could.

Was it that or lack of a phase. Northern stream was dominant? See WB 18Z GFS compared to 12Z.

apparently that's you

Awaiting the gefs ensembles, but until then, the signal across the other recent ens families looks fairly strong to me:

I still would use it. Just saying.

But I also want below normal winds.

Legit question. AI EPS has been one of the best models/ensembles in terms of verification at these lead times (one week or more). However, the best practice is to check how the same model has been trending from run to run. Even though the s/w trough on the AI EPS isn’t as sharp as the original EPS, it also has trended the same way as EPS did. The AI models usually smooth things out too much so they don’t do well predicting extremes (or sharpness of trough waves one week out). So my answer would be that both AI and non-AI EPS suites showed similar results for 12z.

Ya cuz it’s so talented …

I'd grade this winter an A.

Euro was less than stellar with this last system. GFS was admirable.

Glue f’n factory!

That is def. a naked-twister run for me....CF stopping by for lunch next Monday.