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Cmc would have showed a huge snowstorm past 240. Models are really cold going forward. The warm pattern is gone.

Yep. Look at 500's at timestamp of storm, and then paint a surface picture that youd think would logically fit. 0z GFS is not it to me, but as i've said a couple times, NAO is trending down as is AO, and that might be what is bring the surface maps slowly south as we get closer. Thats how I'm looking at it anyway.

Today was disc golf, shopping, tree decorating and dinner with our son and his wife then our biweekly poker night, so just getting back to looking at things. Will go with 1" in Metuchen, since the model consensus is more than the 0.5" the NWS gives me, and it just feels like things are trending better right before the storm, which I always like to see (like 12/14 and unlike most storms the last 4 winters). Let's go!

I just looked back over again, and I'm just not feeling it. Surface high isnt anchored, its scootin NE as SLP approaches. Thermals are on a razors edge for many southers, so we know how that cut feels. Otoh, SLP stays SE of Pa, so I think we'll need to see how much antecedent cold can hold when qpf arrives and how strong SLP gets. I'd root for a weaker slp, based on current evolution. JMO's

lol at this trend in the Pacific. went from an AK trough of doom to legit +PNA

Still 4 days out but the most likely scenario seems to be a period of a snow. Perhaps a thump of a few inches followed by sleet and ending as drizzle. Esp sw of the city. Cold air could hold on longer east and north of the city

Lets see if we can get Sunday's storm to shift south and colder

How's our Quebec low this run vs prior? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

0z GFS & 0z Canadian both show a sleet fest for many of us on Friday.

I think the issue is there are not many analogs for this setup. It's exciting because it's rare. It also makes uncertainty go sky high. Throw in it being a big travel day and Im starting to feel bad for these guys. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Good work man !

If you want sleet. It crushes nyc metro even gets 3-6” well into New England .. thought it was a great move by gfs stopping that south trend.

We always get the wrong trend. Can’t even get precip

Riveting string of storms...Im sure once we get one that has some actual precip with it, it will cut through the lakes and drive the temps up too, definitely feels like the twilight zone, more like groundhog day

While it is trending better (like 0z GFS), I think they too are a little perplexed at the evolution. It's really an outside curveball IMO, but hey contact is contact when youre swingin at anything that'll get ya snow.

That’s the feeling I’ve been getting too. We obviously haven’t had the accumulation the mountains have but it’s seems to snow at any opportunity.

Cmc

Canadian significantly weaker and more suppressed than 12z

I was thinking a White Christmas was on really thin ice down here even with an inch or two ...it gets pretty mild Wednesday afternoon and there's no icy mix to solidify things. Still some mood flakes a couple days before Christmas and having it not be bitterly cold isn't the worst thing.

hes 1 county (and about 20 miles) east of me. Your 230 miles west. Furthermore hes no troll like you. He offers tons more than you, and his reports are rather similar to much of the LSV. Try all you want, but you blew it in here a long long time ago. We've had this conversation before as well. You wont win anyone over in here. The only one you amuse is you and your climate pal that you call in for support . Take the hint and stop muckin up our forum.

We used to get these all the time in the 90s and early 2000s.

The 0z GFS still looks pretty solid. General mean of 0.1 - 0.3" liquid across all guidance. The radar is a little ragged but slowly building and snow isn't expected until just before dawn. Do we get cranking or does it fizzle? Nowcast in the early morning... 0.25 liquid over 8 hours is a fairly respectable average intensity if it happens.

that's a nice run

pretty snowy for NYC though. If it wasn’t a holiday it might be a good week to go