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Proof that it is too soon to say that summer's back is broken!

This only recently seen on the models cold shot is for the weekend after Thanksgiving. So, this is technically during the last days of Nov. Then I still expect a mainly mild first half of Dec. while the MJO crosses 7 and we wait to see what the SSWE does just afterward. Of course expectations and reality sometimes don’t match well.

And semis on the rocks in Chain of Ponds. Addressing the 2002-03 and 2003-04 question: 02-03 was great in SNE but cold and dry here - suppression. Total snow was 75% of average and it's one of only 3 (of 27) winters without a 20"+ month. 03-04 was front-loaded here. The storms of Dec 6-7 and 14-15 totaled 37.1". the rest of the snow season had only 35.5".

Did the SSW actually happen/still on track to happen?

https://twitter.com/IsaacWxObserver/status/1990846704552153573?s=20 EDIT: for some reason link isn't embedding

A month from now this would of been a nice 2-4"/3-5" event

Wasn't there a back-to-back period there where BDL put up like 90" then 70"+?

Should be the other way around

It will come east but modified. Can we get the storm track to our SE instead of a parade of cutters? If I was in the upper TN valley/Ohio valley I would be really excited.

ECM 1" line rides northern Lehigh County

No.

I'm thinking you might be seeing a rain/snow mix. it's very hard to see that out of your window, but you might see some translucent, very wet flakes if you go outside and analyze

02-03 was very good…but again not wire to wire.

The Earth would typically need to see a shift of 0.1° (about 7 miles) or more for an impact on its climate through changes in solar insolation. The reported shift is far less than that. It's essentially meaningless from a climate standpoint.

Kind of figured that was coming….that’s why I asked you this morning what I did. Yes, we take.

1” at MMU? Not much chatter in the office about any snow coming. Could be a fun surprise.

It would have been 93-94. That winter was record breaking ln CT. And then So was 95-96. But they both melted out completely at a point. And that’s just it…it’s super rare to not have that happen at some point in SNE.

True. Actually dropped a bit in last hour, now 38.2/36.1 with that light rain at 2 pm. I am RIGHT on the edge of the precip, and 30 miles south of me as the crow flies it is in the low 50's. NWS says my high is 55 for today, MIGHT make that if the rain clears out and get a little sun, otherwise I'm thinking 44/45.

I would say the I78 corridor peeps

The 12z GFS and to some extend the 12z CMC were flirting with an anafront. Worth watching as most modeling is now "seeing" this earlier cold front. Jeff mentioned it in the December thread. But I guess we prob should put the actual storm here(if it occurs).

Well below.

I mean, he totally went against what the EURO weeklies and the other ensembles were showing run after run for early December and if that should actually happen, maybe he’s onto something?

1992-93 was snowy but had some huge torches. The February and March packs were epic however. 1993-94 came close except for a 3 day torch that melted everything but reloaded until winters end.

I don't really do hype. I know the winter weight which Dec 2009 carries. The CPC has been using it to balance out their analog package for a few days. I doubt the entire winter matches this analog, but December(at least the first 2-3 weeks of it) looks like a decent match when compared to ensembles and some LR ext modeling. Kind of uncanny. Two different models with similar outcomes in regards to analog matches. In all reality, those are just MJO matches vs actual analog month matches. That said, pretty sure the QBO was dropping or negative during Dec 09-10.