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  2. You're on the right track, I think. Both tornados and hurricanes exhibit vorticity and wind(a vector quantity). The big difference is the scale, but at a given point the wind velocity is what it is in both cases. Now consider the vorticity and lift. Much of the extreme damage we see in a tornado results from the(straight line) wind at a point PLUS the very strong localized lift within the more localized vorticity- an intense localized suction vortex. This produces the forces we see in videos that dramatically rips off roofs and uproots trees while lifting the debris rapidly upwards. Tornados are more intense, or 'violent' in a much more localized area.
  3. We’ll see. There has been video of catastrophic floodwaters coming off the mountains this afternoon in many places in Jamaica including Mandeville. Hurricane Mitch, the 2nd deadliest Atlantic basin hurricane on record, caused 11-18K fatalities, mainly from catastrophic flooding and landslides due to epic rainfall amounts.
  4. First day of the season the sweatshirt didn't come off the entire day outside while working. The wind was ripping at times here in the lowlands. This has been a beautiful stretch of fall weather.
  5. Cuban radar http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif
  6. It’s kind of crazy this time of year with the low sun angle that the eastern slope ski trails can hold onto frost all day long. 4:15pm and still frosty.
  7. Here's the thing - I've driven through Chimney Rock, which was probably the worst-hit place, just a few months ago. Roughly half the downtown was wiped out. But generally that's about it; and it's a quite-small downtown actually. I have relatives that live right there in Lake Lure, and they - along with about 95% of the area - were relatively unaffected, aside from lost power, some downed trees, and some road washouts. The vast majority of structures were generally unaffected. You see the spectacular devastation of the areas hardest hit and assume that's the majority of places, but it's not; it's media selection bias. Contrast with the eye wall of a hurricane - of this force - which will wipe out almost everything; leaving almost no structure at least undamaged, and completely destroying a high percentage. Part of the reason I say that is due to the poverty of Jamaica - they just don't have the hurricane wind standards that the US does. (Just to reiterate - not trying to understate the fact that there will be massive rain-flood damage; I'm just asserting that I think the wind damage will likely be worse, along with the storm surge flooding.) Edit to add: the "wiped off the map" verbiage was mine - but I specifically qualified it with "large areas"; what I meant was for instance miles-wide swaths. In Chimney Rock's case, for instance, the swath was roughly 300-500 ft wide (you can see on google maps). Melissa's eye wall is about 300x that wide.
  8. Ah, I was referring to radar for low level structure. It’s really hard getting regional radars.
  9. ESE flow ahead of a low tracking inland means lots of upslope for E PA/upstate NY and showery weather for the city/coast. Some places east of the low would get lucky with banding but by far the best would be well inland. Looking like a couple/few day nasty period without much drought help here. Thankfully we had the storm mid month to help a little.
  10. Yeah, a chilly day today with mid-50s, a breeze, and overcast.
  11. Is Melissa causing the current rip tide off the SE US coast from the other side of Cuba? Or is that due to other environmental factors and just a coincidence?
  12. post what you want about what you want when the weather is slow and there's nothing to track, everyone else does
  13. Going to be interesting to see what she does in a few hours once back over the water
  14. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Caribbean-15-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  15. Thanks for making some of us feel extra old. (Are you sure he was your GREAT Grandfather?) Beautiful shot which probably looked the same in 1979. Very cool. BTW, had a major (MECS) snowfall that year.
  16. Winds ended up at 185 mph sustained at landfall with some gusts in the mountains upwards of 225 mph! Ryan Hall has been streaming and showing some of the area cameras and where those cameras are, structures seem to be hanging in there.
  17. There is no other place to build there, and Helene's flood was orders of magnitude bigger than any prior flood, so it reached areas that had been assumed to be safe. Much like what is about to happen to Jamaica. And landslides happen where you never think a flood will happen. To say Helene didnt have any "wiped off the map" damage as one poster said, is just wrong. Ask Chimney Rock and Bat Cave and Minneapolis and any number of other communities. When the mountainside comes down, everything is gone. I pray for these poor people in the way of this one.
  18. Looks like the center is near the coast now, so we’re going to find out soon just how intact that core still is.
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