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NAO throws a wild card and we get repeated lengthy -NAO periods. Unfavored though since the QBO and solar cycle are wrong. But the nao is the one thing that could lead to a snowier outcome than expected.

We’ve got a repair guy there now so we’ll see what he says

If it's just the motor itself that failed (probably a winding ground fault) then that's an easy fix assuming you have some level of DIY electrical ability. You just need to open her up, get the nameplate off the motor and head online to find a replacement. I'd be more worried if you have one of the air handlers with an inverter drive for the blower motor. If that went bad then it could get expensive.

Awesome, hope you love it. Went for the first time 4 years ago and have been back 6 more times since.

Overall extent tracking similar to last year as the Pacific sector comes back closer to average after a slow start to the melt season. Rick Thoman @alaskawx.bsky.social Follow Ongoing sea ice melt resulted in a big increase in low concentration ice and open water in the seas north and northwest of Alaska during the second week of August. Ice loss was especially dramatic in the Chukchi Sea in NSIDC data. #akwx #Arctic #SeaIce ALT 4:11 PM · Aug 16, 2026

No, didn’t really check anything besides flipping the breakers to try and reset. We seem to be in one of those homeowner phases where everything is breaking at once (solar panels, plumbing leak, dehumidifier, now this) so my investigation curiosity is tapped out.

Only +1F instead of +10F?

Latest 10 day/40 run CFSv2 mean for Feb:

She tried to tell 'em.

Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social Follow The first 14 days of August have blasted through the previous record for the Aug 1-14 period globally.

:-(. Like the fact that your thermostat can tell you that. Have you checked the Capacitor? if blower motor, I would think it is a little more expensive than just capacitor, but not as much as a coil. Not an expert here, but just guessing from the issues I have seen in the past.

Maybe due to monster GOA Low.

steined again with 0.03" 0.40" total for the month

Same. Seems like we need Above Normal in Alaska for central and especially eastern CONUS to get Below Normal.

Thermostat says the blower motor faulted for us. Seems like that should be a straightforward repair? But I’m nervous because when we had hvac issues in summer 2021 it turned into a 22 visit (yes, 22) summer-long fucking debacle.

Mine has been down since the 9th. Luckily I have a different unit upstairs so it hasn't been too bad. Also have a room unit on wheels in the middle of the first floor keeping it mostly cooler. The coil had a leak and lost all the freon and is being replaced today. Lucky it was covered under warranty, but the labor isn't. :-(

Same here-only potted plants needed watering-never seen my lawn look this good in mid August. Only got about .15 here last night. First time busting low in a long time.

Tough look which makes Elias look like a genius. Need a larger sample size to truly rate the transaction.

You didn't ask me but I suspect the US Drought Monitoring product should be taken with a grain of salt due to the subjective inclusion of personal scientist(s) opinions. The product is a smoothed sort of mean between machine/climate/man Heh, a an afterthought, what the last 20 .. 30 years of overly exposed information has been revealing about humanity is that how we used to think of as stone by the time information became ubiquitously known, is and always was suspect. We can't trust PHDs of science... Judges of the Court ... CEOs? forfuckumgetit! Some are well intended, but even they are human - the rest are giant piles of agenda-guided rectal plaque. It's all made interminably more frustrating because well crafted social media content is also so often completely wrong baseless crap that 90% of civility doesn't possess enough analytic capability to adjudicate ... It's kind of ironic that this being the age of information is really evolved or mutated into the "age of disinformation" The problem with these last decades is that (and probably is a good thing because it never should have been ) it teaches us to distrust both specific people, forces us to ponder how far does that extend to the over-arcing apparatuses of the "institution" too - Now, with "Epsteinian" collusive forces that are (c'mon man, don't be naive) clearly integrating a reality that we are in fact guided sheep, corruption in all forms and colors - opinions are part of that - is now only a incompletely certain to morons. So yeah... we can trust the US DM "a little" more than RFK's MAHA health reforms. Anyway, the drought guide is in part machine, and then modulated by opinions of officers in the subject. This latter aspect in kinder terms leaves it open to debate. But regionally? the farmers know

Our HVAC broke last evening so yeah, strong agree from me

0.62 inches.

So, the overwhelming majority opinion is that given the super duper el-Nino and warming background state, we will have a warm and unsnowy winter, a la 1998. Frankly, I am in the 1998 camp myself....with perfect benchmark lows that give us no snow, as alluded to by Weathafella a few posts back. Tell me what can go "wrong" here. Are there feasible scenarios where this winter might overachieve? After all, history shows again and again how nature points out the folly of men!

Need a cold front, pronto.

So wait. The RRFS is known to have “bugs” with the FV3 core and it can’t be fixed until 2028, but we’re retiring the NAM soon anyway?