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Had to snap back other way

Will take a long time to catch up to normal - lawns look like they do in March ............

Any chance we get any clearing down here before the afternoon is done?

Definitely a flip towards a longer term drier pattern

Surprised myself. We will see if it holds together. At least shear is higher

Bust. Morning showers then clearing

I saw the cloudy sky and looked at radar -- congrats northern MD! Maybe I'll luck into a t-storm later today. I'm hoping next Monday turns into a real soaker.

Quite the storm down in Louisiana.

Those on the Gulf coast should keep an open mind this winter, some dude in Pensacola measured a foot of snow outside of his office 17 months ago.

This drought really came out of nowhere... The preceding 12 months to Sept 2024 was about 12" above normal with 60" of precip.

Nothing close-minded about my sentiment. I'll peer out the window every now and again if it happens to look ominous, but that is about the extent of my commitment.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 814 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia... Western Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... East central Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... Central Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 900 AM EDT. * At 813 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Romney to 12 miles north of Moorefield to near Petersburg, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Romney, Wardensville, Springfield, Capon Bridge, Green Spring, Bean Settlement, Yellow Spring, Shanks, High View, Bloomery, Perry, Points, Lost City, Lost River, Delray, Cross Junction, Baker, Kirby, Gore, and Wapocomo.

anecdote warning: I recorded the June 1, 2011 tornado that crossed through Springfield from my office window, so I encourage you to keep an open mind

Pretty robust stuff for the time of day.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 809 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Rockingham County in western Virginia... Northwestern Augusta County in western Virginia... Highland County in western Virginia... Pendleton County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 845 AM EDT. * At 809 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 15 miles west of Upper Tract to 9 miles east of Richwood, moving east at 65 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Franklin, Monterey, Brandywine, Upper Tract, Doe Hill, Head Waters, Riverton, Deer Run, Liberty, Circleville, Ruddle, Williamsville, Oak Flat, Vanderpool, Sirons Mill, Hightown, Clover Creek, Cherry Grove, Mill Gap, and New Hampden.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 806 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Allegany County in western Maryland... Northwestern Rockingham County in western Virginia... Northeastern Pendleton County in eastern West Virginia... Grant County in eastern West Virginia... South central Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... Western Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Southwestern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 830 AM EDT. * At 806 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Keyser to 6 miles east of Davis to 8 miles south of Hendricks, moving east at 65 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Keyser, Moorefield, Petersburg, Romney, Rough Run, Upper Tract, Burlington, Russelldale, Landes, Arthur, Brushy Run, New Creek, Seymourville, Lahmansville, Masonville, Cabins, Dorcas, Fisher, Medley, and Kline Gap. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

Seems a higher percentage play at your latitude from what I have gathered.

A trace so far. The line out by Davis is looking more robust that the models have it, so maybe it can power through to give us at least a little rain.

I’m taking the severe risk today legitimately; seems we have all the general players positioned very well. Pretty textbook. Just need to have a good sky clearing after this current round of downpours.

Convection just doesn't do much for me because the odds of anything noteworthy at any given location is just so low........I mean, what are the odds one of those rogue cells sets up over MBY....and furthermore, what are the odds said rogue cell offers anything more anomalous than some heavier rain and gusty winds. While the jackpot is inherently elusive, at least during major winter storms the noteworthy significant blanket of snowfall is pretty uniform. That is a worthwhile endeavor relative to the ill-fated summer rendition of pin the convective tail on the weenie.

Here in the seacoast region of NH I’ve learned to take a negative bias for surface based forcing and a significant positive bias for mid level forcing. It didn’t come easy—many beatings—thanks to model guidance hoodwinking on days the sensible weather feels primed for severe…

985 mb near Montreal is pretty damn impressive for mid June climo

Since this drought started back in Sept 2024, my station is some 28" below normal.

Yeah I’m with you there.

Especially for convection. I’m more excited when Ray gets 20” and I get 2” vs convection around these parts. Unless it’s a locked in deal.