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My weeds have weeds. And not the good kind.

1.15" event total

Might want to stay far from Austin, lol. We have been 94/72 since May 11. We've hit 100 a few times already, too.

I like this..It won’t necessarily be memorable but Jesus at least it’s SOMEthing

I can imagine an A.I. Model coming up with the humdinger of all blizzards in December 2025 for DC. Training thundersnows piling up four feet of wet snow in NW DC in a 36 hr period. lol. It does not know the laws of physics so the sky's the limit for snow in DC according to the A.I.

Only around 1" here in this area so far. 44 degrees and steady rain at the moment with a stiff breeze. The house is chilly.

2021-2022 was the only -WPO winter since 2016-2017.

1/6/25: 7.5" 1/11/25: 1.0" 1/16/25: 0.25" 1/19/25: 0.5" 2/11-12: 6.25” Season to Date: 15.5”

Yea, February 2015 had an immaculate Pacific pattern. I didn't say that the size of the cold pool doesn't matter...I said its BOTH, the pattern and the size of the cold pool. You seem to struggle to accept that.

^Clear Atlantic tripole there. I found that this is the Apr-May SLP anomaly of our most active seasons since 1995 minus least active seasons since 1995 So far we have somewhat of an opposite pattern

39.8

.90" so far/42F

I had some free time today and decided to correlate Atlantic ACE with temperatures around the world for the month of May (which, over oceans, roughly correspond with sea surface temperatures.) One can see a strong positive influence from sea surface temperatures across the Tropical Atlantic, as well as the East Atlantic, Labrador Sea (hmm) and tropical West Pacific/Maritime Continent. Now there's definitely a lot of noise in here, but I found it helpful for my analysis. I also produced temperature correlation coefficients for number of TS/H/MH (didn't differ too much from this) and precipitation correlation coefficients (pretty much just noise, no trend.)

my analysis... Factors in favor of a more intense hurricane season: - warm Caribbean and waters surrounding Florida - warm West Pacific and Maritime Continent - negative PDO - positive OHC anomalies around Caribbean and loop current Factors in favor of a less intense hurricane season: - a cool Tropical East Atlantic - some modelling showing convergence aloft over Atlantic during hurricane season Slightly above average sounds right to me. Things aren't screaming hyperactive like 2024 but the factors are slightly in favor of more storms. I'm feeling more homegrown seasons this season... not so many Cape Verde long trackers. Maybe near average ACE but slightly above average storm numbers. I'll write a storm # prediction in the thread at some point.

Wow, only 75” here but coming down pretty good now.

Stratton summit a bit over a week to met Summer.

Friggin firehose right now, holy crap man..

In the 40s tho

1.41”

Another observation that casts substantial doubt on the geothermal hypothesis is the cooling stratosphere. If increased geothermal activity were the cause of the warming we would expect the stratosphere to warm; maybe not at the same rate as the troposphere, but warm nonetheless.

we've had so-so success with the follow-up winter in a negative neutral regime. 2013-14 isnt a bad analog in terms of showing the upside. It was a -PDO follow-up winter in a neg neutral regime. But there are some equally bad downsides. It could be like a 60's winter but like the weakest years of the 60s. Who remembers 67-68? nobody

Caught the edge of another one. One crack of thunder and a couple minutes of rain. Pushed the total just over an inch.

How much you get?

Kind of a boring storm