All Activity

GFS at 18z remains colder than any of the mesos for the I-78 corridor and even ends as snow around 2pm tomorrow. It's probably not picking up on the warm punch, but given the soundings are all basically 33-degrees and isothermal, maybe the models are underestimating the cold tonight? Will just have to see what happens, NWS forecast looks great to me based on current guidance.

that's like 3/4 of an inch lol

Dropped 3 degrees in 25 min. Now 37/22

The 18z ICON is flirting with it as well for NE TN/SW VA. Time of day is huge. If that comes in over night, it could be a mess.

Umm how accurate is the CWG? Lol

The 18z RGEM is threatening to bring frozen precip into the forum area around Dec 5th. Sneaky system...a little bit of ZR can wreck total havoc.

I hope not, but it seems like tradition now that we grill outside in shorts around Christmas lately. Usually get so excited with all the ski areas opening up only to be hit with mild temps and slush during the holiday week, which then turns to ice in January. The good news is at some point the streak has to break.

For those pushing the 'colder' ideas, I topped at 39.1 here after a 43 degree forecasted high. Currently 37.5/21.0. My chances of snow are much slimmer than further north, but it MAY start that way and get us white before the sleet and freezing rain take over. Edit, in the time between looking to check and type this and now (maybe 5 minutes) I've dropped to 35.9/21.1.

They are actually bringing up the possibility for rain mixing in for some areas south and east of here. Hoping that stays where it's at. If you look on the maps, it shows those areas with a little less snow. Sent from my SM-S931U using Tapatalk

I thought the GFS was a hair warmer in NEMA but mostly just noise. Still trying to bring the grid down MHT through the Rt. 2 region.

Hoping model guidance underestimates the density of this cold dome over us tonight...could a make a difference when we're talking like 1C in the BL. Guess we'll see on the 00z and 06z runs.

Wet. It will Be raining

Capitol complex closed tmrw - going to be hilarious when it’s raining by 9 am

How bad do we think the Pike will be during the evening commute?

The 'big thump' is exactly what is needed to get the very marginal spots to get accumulation before it warms a bit, best of luck to all of us! Whether we get snow or not, I think tomorrow is gonna be a dicy travel day, especially from the fall line west.

It does offer a coating possibly to Boston, maybe an inch just to the north of the city, at the tail end.

We're at the point where we want to stay clear as long as possible.

Gfs a bit less QPF but the warming seems to have stopped on the 18z runs.

Rgem did well up here with the January 19 storm last winter, though it turned out to be too cool further south. I'm going to bet it does OK with this one up here solely because it's the best case next to the Gfs that wants to drop 5-6" up here per the 18z run. So Rgem with its 2.5-3" is a fair compromise between other guidance and the Gfs outlier.

40.3/22.6

Appreciate the response, thanks. I think i recall the hrrr doing well last winter? Particularly with all the snow south of DC. .

It'd just drop to 38 degrees then.

It's a very marginal setup...the HRRR and GFS aren't in actuality THAT far from the other guidance...they are just 1-2 degrees colder and have the precip come in a little harder initially...that combo is the difference between a thump snow along our NW fringe regions...and not. It's not like the guidance is showing some vastly different outcome...its just the minor differences have rather significant impacts on the ground truth in this case.

CWG says coldest/snowiest December in 8 years