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Pretty good wind with this line of showers/downpours

Improper wording on my part. It should say, "most of the time" not "always." If you go back months, you'll see the bias I am talking about. Look at his posts about Europe heat in the last few weeks. Why would an OCM that should be focusing on wx local to their DMA or at least the U.S. talk about hot wx/heat domes in Europe? Could it be that there was no sig heat in the U.S. at the same time, so one has to go find it elsewhere on the globe b/c that the "in" thing to hype b/c of global warming? What gets the most clicks/likes and promotes gloom and doom? These tendencies and biases are not hard to spot. All I am saying as a scientist, one need to avoid bias, hype, and report on things w/ balance and reason. When you are a public figure to millions, a responsibility comes w/ that. But you see far too many fall into hype and over-the-top/cheesy statements and graphics just to grab attention and proper perspective, reason, and facts be damned.

Glorious last day of May. Lunch on the deck.

Ending the month with a bang. Getting some sprinkles from time to time. Will finish May with 1.77".

Not a good look for Baltimore when a fan throws something from the stands and injures an opposing player.

it is - Upton once again predicted Mostly Sunny - happens quite a bit

You'll find far more posts about heat and hot wx than cool/cold wx. Look at the mean/average.

Not going to lie, I just clicked on him and the first three posts are about drought relief (not hyping), a break in the Florida humidity with dry air, and cold New England temps.

It only takes one TC to possibly be a bad year and unfortunately even some strong+ El Niño seasons (where we’re likely headed) have had bad hits on the CONUS. Keep in mind that just a TS hit or even just a TD can cause devastating freshwater floods if slow moving. I just looked at the 13 strong+ El Niño seasons.High impact storms in Conus during strong+ Nino (per RONI for 1950+)(2023 excluded since RONI peak only +1.49; so I didn’t count Idalia): I found 12July 1997: H Danny (extreme rains Mobile area)August 1991: H Bob (NC OB to E NE) though Nino not strong til laterJune 1972: H Agnes in FL due to tornadoes and in PA as TS due to extreme rains though Nino not strong til laterSept 1965: MH Betsy (one of New Orleans’ worst)June 1957: MH Audrey (near TX/LA border) although Nino not strong til laterJune 1902: TS storm #2 flooding rains TX although Nino not strong til laterJuly 1896: H storm #1 Pensacola though Nino not strong til laterSept 1896: MH storm #4 NW FL and major damage well up into E US although not strong Nino til laterAugust 1888: MH/H storm #3 S FL/New Orleans although Nino not strong til laterOct 1888: H storm #7 NW FL with TS winds up E coast to NESept 1877: H storm #2 entire US Gulf coastOct 1877: MH storm #4 NW FL with TS/ET wind/rain damage well up E US——————- Per best tracks, all TCGs of these 12 high impact storms were W of 50W with most W of 70W.-Only 5 of these 12 high impact Conus storms hit when Nino was already strong. So, early season could be the riskiest portion, which is pretty intuitive. Then again, MH Betsy (1965) and MH (storm #4) in 1877 hit when Nino already very strong. So, these are just good guidelines since nothing’s set in stone.-These 12 hit during 9 of the 13 seasons that were strong+ Nino seasons. So, only 2015, 1987, 1982, and 1930 of these 13 had no Conus high impact storm. So, whereas there’s legit hope the Conus will be largely unscathed with the upcoming very strong Nino, I unfortunately wouldn’t bet against one ruining things somewhere even if isn’t a MH as was the case 7 of the 12 times. Despite the above, the good news is that there’s a very good chance for a quieter than average season overall for the Conus. Thus, the chance of a multiple storm high impact year like 2024, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2008, 2005, 2004, 1999, 1998, 1996, and 1985 among others is lower than average despite 2 storms with high impact hits in 1896, 1888, and 1877.

The fact he is a well-known meteorologist is irrelevant. One being well-known doesn't make one right/better or unbiased. He is at WFLA in Tampa now and has been for at least a year. Take a look at his social media posts. They are over-the-top hype/clickbait, no contest. Always hyping every time it gets hot only, every ridge of high pressure is heat dome, and every anomaly is proof of climate change. Here is an example. https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2056346965814726858 Having animated flames is hype and unnecessary. And the graphic only focuses on the heat when a large area of cool temps is present and replaces the heat in short order. That is not only hype, it is reporting bias. One should report on *everything*, not just cherry-pick certain types of wx that fit a particular narrative.

It only takes one to possibly be a bad year and unfortunately even some strong+ El Niño seasons (where we’re likely headed) have had bad hits on the CONUS. Keep in mind that just a TS hit or even just a TD can cause devastating freshwater floods if slow moving. I just looked at the 13 strong+ El Niño seasons.High impact storms in Conus during strong+ Nino (per RONI for 1950+)(2023 excluded since RONI peak only +1.49; so I didn’t count Idalia): I found 12July 1997: H Danny (extreme rains Mobile area)August 1991: H Bob (NC OB to E NE) though Nino not strong til laterJune 1972: H Agnes in FL due to tornadoes and in PA as TS due to extreme rains though Nino not strong til laterSept 1965: MH Betsy (one of New Orleans’ worst)June 1957: MH Audrey (near TX/LA border) although Nino not strong til laterJune 1902: TS storm #2 flooding rains TX although Nino not strong til laterJuly 1896: H storm #1 Pensacola though Nino not strong til laterSept 1896: MH storm #4 NW FL and major damage well up into E US although not strong Nino til laterAugust 1888: MH/H storm #3 S FL/New Orleans although Nino not strong til laterOct 1888: H storm #7 NW FL with TS winds up E coast to NESept 1877: H storm #2 entire US Gulf coastOct 1877: MH storm #4 NW FL with TS/ET wind/rain damage well up E US——————- Per best tracks, all TCGs of these 12 high impact storms were W of 50W with most W of 70W.-Only 5 of these 12 high impact Conus storms hit when Nino was already strong. So, early season could be the riskiest portion, which is pretty intuitive. Then again, MH Betsy (1965) and MH (storm #4) in 1877 hit when Nino already very strong. So, these are just good guidelines since nothing’s set in stone.-These 12 hit during 9 of the 13 seasons that were strong+ Nino seasons. So, only 2015, 1987, 1982, and 1930 of these 13 had no Conus high impact storm. So, whereas there’s legit hope the Conus will be largely unscathed with the upcoming very strong Nino, I unfortunately wouldn’t bet against one ruining things somewhere even if isn’t a MH as was the case 7 of the 12 times. Despite the above, the good news is that there’s a very good chance for a quieter than average season overall for the Conus. Thus, the chance of a multiple storm high impact year like 2024, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2008, 2005, 2004, 1999, 1998, 1996, and 1985 among others is lower than average despite 2 storms with high impact hits in 1896, 1888, and 1877.

Pellet stove on to start June. Will I ever be able to turn it off?

Nothing we ever hope to experience again

Pretty cloudy

They're coming.

67-69 today and mostly sunny. very nice spring day so far but here come the clouds

Gorgeous out. Low 70s, dry with some overcast clouds.

When you figure out how to convince your wife that this is the correct time to go down south, please let us know. Counting on you!

Today’s going to be a lot worse than yesterday up here, ha. Raining and chilly.

Yeah, if there are breaks in shear in the homebrew region (a big if), homebrew is likely the best chance at tropical genesis.

I was about ten degrees warmer than you at that time yesterday, and got up to around 55 once the sun broke out yesterday afternoon. Impressive nonetheless. Cold cold late May day.

I would basically completely write off the mdr this season. Maybe something like 72 with potential for stronger systems closer the CONUS https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File%3A1972_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png .

Ive noticed that too...and im certainly NOT one of them lol. I love cold. But it goes without saying that "cold" and "mild" are extremely subjective terms. Cold in Detroit is different than cold in NYC, to say nothing of the difference between NYC and where you live, and so on. A mild winter here will still be cold enough to snow much of the time. This is why as always storm track/pattern is more important than just temps. I hear the east coast guys talk of their worst winters where they can count on on one hand the number of times it snowed. Its a lock that its going to snow here dozens of times...the key is will there be worthwhile storms? Will it be abnormally dry? And so on.

Wow, 41 here