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  2. GaWx
    Any comments about what this graph implies? Why is ERA5 avg (blue) so much higher than ECMWF mean (black)? Isn’t ERA5 produced by ECMWF? Any explanation would be appreciated.
  3. WEATHER53
    We are going to be very good this winter. 2002-03 keeps showing up. That means the general pattern more than one huge storm but such storm is not discounted I also look at first half of October as to how far off NWS and others are in predicting below average temps in the 5+ day prior to. This cool shot prediction had DC in upper 50’s for highs initially which verified more like 63-64 so about 5/6 degrees off .
  4. Typhoon Tip
    it's amazing how the universe finds a way to get to entropy. like ...keep using oil, the temp rises to the point where you don't need to use any oil. problem solved. lol
  5. bluewave
    RONI is not meant to be used for the absolute intensity of this event. It’s more about gradients and storm tracks. With something this historic, it’s the absolute temperatures that matter which is better reflected by ONI.
  6. Jimbo! started following October 11 hybrid/ semi/tropical rain
  7. Jimbo!
    Well since I saw AvDave mention February, thought I’d start the thread lol. Here’s hoping I can bust droughts too .
  8. Jimbo!
    Well I see it’s that time again…. .
  9. BooneWX
    What’s everyone’s gamble on timing? App kicks off homecoming at 1 pm. Selfishly hoping we get a rain free game for our passing attack lol.
  10. BooneWX
    Weirdly, I think everyone is getting smoked. I may be 100% wrong, but with that flow, we’ll be getting not only the southerly fetch from the gulf, but the Atlantic will get tapped into as the storm gains latitude. There’s certainly going to be max’s to the west and east of the piedmont but this is your classic, squeezing every last drop out of the clouds type of setup for the Carolinas. Also one of those situations where the moments of blankness on radar are still producing heavy drizzle/light rain.
  11. Typhoon Tip
    heh...that region in the NE US looks like the (superstorm 1993 + climate change)/2
  12. weatherwiz
    I'll never understand how cold could be "fake"
  13. Paleocene
    All of the globals and their AI brethren drop an inch of rain ish, or more, on the region sunday into monday. Getting into deterministic range soon though as others have said that doesnt mean much these days lol
  14. psv88
    No clue. I have a wife and kids and I want them to be comfortable. Maybe it makes people feel tough?
  15. NorthHillsWx
    Very good chance of severe weather across the south given the combination of a tropical system interacting with a strong jet and dry air shooting in the backside. Probably a tornado outbreak for the south
  16. Layman
    Must be tough keeping the MIL in line when she attempts to dabble with the heat
  17. midatlanticweather
    38 glorious degrees for a low.
  18. Cold Miser
    Yup. This is a hard rule. No getting the oil burner fired up until Nov 1 or after. With that being said, we do have supplemental heat with the new mini split ac unit that was installed a few years ago. Since my wife's elderly mother lives with us, she does turn it on every so often during cooler mornings. It really only heats the area she is in.
  19. ROOSTA
    A prolific tornado set-up which probably will be a high impact event.
  20. LakePaste25
    I won’t count chickens before they hatch, but *at least so far* the Euro has been the most correct with how E based it is compared to the others.
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    If it was September, maybe. But we're now in October, so I think at most, only one more named storm. There's no way we get 3 more named storms after this point, especially in an el nino. Recent history says this will probably be the last storm of the storm. In the last 15 years, several seasons ended with the last active storm being the biggest (Sandy in 2012, Iota in 2020, and Melissa last year come to mind).
  22. Avdave
    With this set up potentially happening, my gut tells me that somehow, someway the piedmont will get screwed on the rainfall. Similar to last Feb winter snow, except that was a dry slot and totally different set up. This just doesnt sit well with me for an inch+ of rainfall here. Im hope Im wrong though
  23. Guest

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  24. FPizz
    Agreed, turn on the heat or A/C as needed.
  25. forkyfork
    is roni going to lower the amount of latent heat that gets released into the climate system and trapped by carbon dioxide? is roni going to keep an eastward displaced north pacific low from flooding the continent with maritime airmasses all winter?
  26. Damage In Tolland
    95% Talk to me when it’s actually cold with CAA and wind. Not 70 in the afternoon This is the deft of fake and not cold. No your first name ain’t baby .. it’s Ginx, Ms Ginxy if yo nasty .
  27. GaWx
    The CFS keeps missing too low and thus readjusting Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 higher while doing pretty much the opposite for 3.4 and 4 thus making it more and more E based from the already record E basedness.
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