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If I was with someone I would definitely do that lol. Otherwise boring alone

I’m not seeing much for me over and up here but that tornado over in northern Dutchess looks legit on radar.

You can go to the Rendevous in Turner Falls afterwards and have a three dollar pint of PBR!

Had like 4 over me.

Now if this persists through winter…

Wonder what it is about right now that made them take flight in significant numbers. Popped to 90.7 at home. Looks like a lot of upper 80s temps and near 70 DPs around. Full summer.

The GFS is almost assuredly too cold, but it has some temps in the upper 30s to lower/mid 40s at the end of the run.

Rate got up to 3.28"/hr

This activity might ultimately be going off a bit too early, may result in less convection in the end. I still see no LTG strikes over NJ thus far or maybe just 1-2

Beautiful day out here

Elected to do Turners Fall airport based in radar evolution

Radar popping nicely. Airmass certainly supports it

How do we know this isn’t a cope like when similar points are brought up in winter?

Because of the way, the coastal waters are designed, it’s just a technicality of how the watches extended like that. Don’t read into it too deeply.

Tor warning by Kingston

Just got a ride I’m beforehand the storms. Streams are damp from recent rain but no flow.

Got it on my phone - scared the shit out of me (no, I'm outside of the red-marked zone)

I’ve never seen that before .

That eastern part of the watch is rather unusual?

That’s a Great Barrington special

Was driving back south on I-95 from New Jersey. We have so many dead bugs on our car. I'm going to have to get it washed.

Atlantic (NAO) has slight inverse correlation from October to the Winter Pacific has a pretty strong direct correlation from October to the Winter, a lot of that is around the PDO, which is strongest in Oct out of PNA/ENSO.

first tor warning!

Again, be happy it's not Winter August 2025 was the 6th consecutive +AO month. (Mar-Aug) August 2025 was the 7th consecutive +NAO month. (Feb-Aug) August 2025 was the 5/6 consecutive -PNA month. (Mar-Aug [Jul])

I’ll take Nina over Nino every time around here in the winter. Hopefully we do have a “warm” October. It feels like a lot of times a cold October turns into a mild December. Although, that’s probably due to a cold October being more common in a Nino. A cold October is kind of useless anyway except for chasing the first flakes of the season or some sloppy early season slush accumulation that melts in a few hours.