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The -SOI streak just hit 72 days, which is tied with 1997 for the 2nd longest -SOI streak since the daily record start in 1991! There’s a near 100% chance that it will reach a new 2nd longest streak of 73 days tomorrow: https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

Sussex county into the Hudson Valley seems to be the big hits in the first wave. Storms are moving northeast in a unified direction fairly tight. https://weather.com/weather/radar/interactive/l/fc41d839027a06b79c0a75586dd3720ebd5a5484e2fcbe05d3c372b35879fe97

Today is the climo warmest day for CON. All downhill from here…sadly.

Records: Highs: EWR: 103 (2011) NYC: 104 (1977) LGA: 100 (2019) JFK: 99 (2019) Lows: EWR: 56 (1951) NYC: 55 (1890) LGA: 62 (1974) JFK: 58 (1965) Historical: 1911 - The temperature at Painter, WY, dipped to 10 degrees to equal the record low for July for the continental U.S. (The Weather Channel) 1930: The state record for Delaware was established that day with a reading of 110 °F at Millsboro, Delaware. (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States) 1934 - The temperature reached 109 degrees at Cincinnati, OH, to cap their hottest summer of record. The state record for Ohio was established that day with a reading of 113 degrees near the town of Gallipolis. (David Ludlum) 1939: Richmond, Virginia had a high temperature for the day of 65 °F making it the coolest July day on record (records since 1897). (Ref. Richmond Weather Records) 1942: This is the only occurrence Miami, FL has ever seen 100°. (Extreme Weather p. 273, by Christopher C. Burt) 1947: Holt, MO records world record 12 inches of rain in only 42 minutes.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1975 - Six inches of rain fell across Mercer County, NJ, in just ten hours causing the worst flooding in twenty years. Assunpink Creek crested eleven feet above flood stage at Hamilton and Trenton, the highest level of record. Traffic was brought to a standstill, and railway service between New York City and Washington D.C. was cut off for two days. Flooding left 1000 persons homeless, and caused an estimated 25 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1979: Parts of Lancaster County into the west central Chester County, Pennsylvania region was hit with torrential rain during the morning, with most of the rain falling in about 5 hours. In Chester County, Newlinville received 8.11 inches and Valley Township 7.56 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1986: A tremendous heat wave continued across the South. This was the 15th day in a row with 100° plus degree readings at Columbia, SC. Macon, GA topped out at 106 °F. It was also the 10th consecutive day with 100° degree plus heat at Macon. (Extreme Weather p. 273, by Christopher C. Burt) (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Utah to North Dakota, spawning a dozen tornadoes in North Dakota. Thunderstorms in North Dakota also produced baseball size hail at Clifford which caused four million dollars damage, and high winds which toppled a couple of eighty foot towers cutting off power to the town of Blanchard. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - While cool air invaded the central U.S., unseasonably hot weather continued over the western states. The temperature at Spring Valley, NV, soared from a morning low of 35 degrees to an afternoon high of 95 degrees. Fallon, NV, reported an all-time record high of 108 degrees, and Death Valley, CA, reported their sixth straight day of 120 degree heat. (The Weather Channel) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Afternoon thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 92 mph at Jacksonville, damaging thirteen light planes at Herlong Field. Five cities in Texas reported record low temperatures for the date. Corpus Christi, TX, equalled their record low for the date with a reading of 71 degrees, and then tied their record high for the date that afternoon with a reading of 97 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1991: Boston, MA recorded 81 °F for the warmest low temperature. 100 degree readings are not common in Rhode Island, but the mercury topped out at 102° at Providence on this day, the second day in a row that the thermometer reached the century mark. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1993: The Mississippi River crested at 46.9 feet at St. Louis, MO, easily breaking the old record of 43.2 feet established in the 1973 flood. The 11 mile long, 52 foot high flood wall kept water out of the city center. In spite of all the damage the flood did, it is estimated that without all of the flood-control measures in place today, the price tag from the flood would have easily doubled its astronomical $20 billion total. The record crest would be topped again on August 1st. The heavy rainfall that occurred earlier in the month set the stage for what became the flood of the century in Iowa. The city of Des Moines was very hard hit. At the peak of the flooding, nearly 35,000 households were without electricity and 50,000 were without power. Water service was out for 250,000 people, which is the largest water outage in United States history. Losses to the businesses in Des Moines were estimated at $800 million dollars, from physical damage to the buildings and lost business. Other damage in Des Moines included $30 million dollars to homes, $75 million dollars to the levee system and $20 million dollars to the water treatment plant. Damage to West Des Moines was also well over $30 million dollars. Crop damage was extensive as 6.5 million acres of cropland were damaged by the flood. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1995: A camper at Colonial Beach in Westmoreland County, VA took refuge under a tree during a thunderstorm. The tree was struck by lightning, which in turn caused second degree burns over 20 percent of the camper's body. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 1997: Extreme flooding occurred over Baldwin County, Alabama as the remnants of Hurricane Danny drifted slowly northeastward after dumping 30 inches of rain over coastal Alabama. The worst flooding occurred around the Fish River where 500 homes were damaged. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1999: The Cedar River in Charles City, IA reached its all-time crest of an estimated 22.8 feet. Approximately 100 homes had flood damage in Charles City. Almost 12 inches of rain fell in a 48 hours period over these counties. Rainfall totals that day: New Hampton, IA: 7.10 inches (wettest day on record), Charles City, IA: 6.65 inches, West Union, IA: 4 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2006: Western Washington: An unusual heat wave in western Washington breaks five maximum temperature records: Vancouver at 104°F, Olympia at 100°F, Seattle at 97°F, and Hoquiam at 90°F. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2011: at 4:50 PM Chicago bakes in first back-to-back 100-degree days in 16 years since deadly heat wave in July 1995 The mercury hit 101 degrees at Midway Airport at 4:40 pm Thursday afternoon marking the second straight day of triple-digit heat there. This was the city's first encounter with back- to-back 100-degree days in 16 years since the deadly heat wave of July 1995. Back then the mercury soared to 106 degrees on July 13 and was followed by a 102 degree high on July 14. The city's official site at O'Hare Airport has fallen just short of triple-digit heat for the second straight day. Today official high there was 99 degrees recorded at 1:58 pm. On Wednesday the 20th the city's official high at O'Hare international Airport was also 99 degrees. (Ref. WGN Chicago Weather Center - Tom Skilling)

It might be NW of the city. East of the city looks like the split screw area based on short term modeling.

76 / 60 and much more humid air moves in on the southerly flow ahead of the front. Storms / rain into northern areas and some clearing working east out of PA to potentially heat things up for some unstable triggers later. Still think we have clouds and showers lingering a bit tomorrow before clearing out. Overall below normal 7/23 - 7/29 and with the trough in place id look for more unforeseen storms / rain chances early next week Monday. Beyond there western ridge builds heat and the atlantic ridge is building wst. 7/30 - beyond moderation to a warmer/ humid and next shot at heat potential.

IMBY my little backyard rain gauge says we received over 4 inches the last 24 hours Yowzer

A bowl surrounded by a million trees? What ever do you mean?

Same here..

Good band but I'm not sure Merriweather is the best place to see them tonight lol

Yeah the duration is certainly a question, but then again, duration of higher heat events is always trickly here just because of our geographical proximity to Canada and vulnerability of fronts moving through. I guess the question would be, do any fronts completely alter the pattern or would it just be a case of multiple days of average temps before we blow another warm front through and bring in another round of heat? Magnitude isa challenge too, but that is a very large plume of ~+25C 850 temps being modeled into the OV...doesn't take much to really break some of that off and send it our way, especially ahead of a front or even build the airmass in if ridging expands east.

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 62kt at 11:55z

I don't think we see pure blue skies and sun today... I think as the sat image you posted shows we will have sun and clouds. Should be enough as long as its like 3 to 5 hours of it

Almost a complete whiff here. I had a trace and that is it. At least the air is better today.

OK I missed the post. Was just checking out some of the 6z ensemble means. I don't doubt it will get warmer, but a bit skeptical on the magnitude/duration

Tip made a post on it yesterday, but you can see signals in that likelihood. Matches up kind of well too climatologically where we can get big (kind of final) big heat pushes in early August. The longevity of it though will certainly be a question given the continued theme for troughing to our northwest, but if anything that at least keeps the door open for cold fronts/convective potential

Big thunderstorm rolled thru here around 4 am with lots of CTG lightning and booming thunder. Not much wind (26 mph gust) but picked up 1.07" of rain, which beat previous daily record of 0.99" from 1984.

Red circled area looks decent...

Severe wx is fickle....impossible for any of us to say. 5 miles makes a huge difference on days like today for sensible weather. If nothing else - 80 miles isn't terrible in the grand scope of things...and I guess there are worse places to be than Columbia

I've always been vocal in my opinion that I love our summer severe crew. With a few notable exceptions over the years we all just seem to mostly get along and not stir up the drama like the larger crowds in winter. Sure....every now and then we get the ethics debate about "rooting for" severe weather. But all in all, we are just fellow weather weenies trudging through the hot, humid, disgusting days of spring through early fall until we can start tracking first frost/freeze. This is banter, and I am being a little overly nostalgic - but I mean this wholeheartedly when I say it: Some of my most fond weather memories have been centered around Eastern/AmWx over the years. Sure...the actual weather events themselves are the "core" - but I've experienced them alongside all of you. I've had the pleasure of meeting some great characters from here in person at the conferences as well. Whether we bust today (or in general) or not...gotta say ya'll are awesome.

Doesn't look like a huge signal to me, though I suppose it could get a bit more humid than it is now.

Hive mind: Should I bail on driving down the 80 miles down from PA to a concert Merriweather/Columbia tonight? Seems … somewhat risk and safer to just swallow the lost $$$. (if anyone wants Death Cab for Cutie tickets tonight reach out lol)

Yes and there is some clearing to our west - but how much of that is going to reach us ? Also today is not going to be a complete washout like Saturday was - the Upton forecast makes it sound more like a overall rainy - stormy day

Looking like N NJ and Hudson Valley are favored for heavy rain then some zone south of there with a split screw zone in the middle. You can already see a good bit of rain headed for the favored N NJ/Hudson Valley area.

Enjoy, family is also Norwegian, spent a month there summer before high school with family that still lives there and hoping to get back to experience it again. Absolutely gorgeous country.