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Was gonna respond to this with a plot I did years ago showing how the 500mb pattern over the east often reverses from October to DJF (eg east ridge winter after troughing in oct), but the plotting tool I’m using seems to be broken. I also hadn’t broken it down between la nina and el nino years when I did it back then. So without me being able to back up my claims, you win. I’ll take the L.

Ensembles continue with the +NAO too.

Well…in leftovers I think he meant another Rainey weekend for SNE, and that would be par for this spring, summer and now fall.

@vortex95 will learn. Winter is hand to hand and town to town combat around here. Michael, Ian, Laura, Ida, Helene, Milton...just to name a few. 3k Nammy has some flakes in the high peaks this week. More likely than a big event. Deeply skeptical of leftovers here, but I think we have a shot at some Gulf development. Might close out the season of futility.

12Z UKMET is 4th full run in a row with a Gulf TC and again maxes out in strong TS range but well to the W of the 0Z’s FL Pan with it coming into EC LA: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 21.8N 92.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 08.10.2026 84 22.1N 93.0W 1003 28 1200UTC 08.10.2026 96 23.3N 91.8W 1003 29 0000UTC 09.10.2026 108 23.0N 90.7W 1002 30 1200UTC 09.10.2026 120 24.8N 91.2W 1001 40 0000UTC 10.10.2026 132 26.2N 91.1W 997 44 1200UTC 10.10.2026 144 28.5N 90.3W 992 55 0000UTC 11.10.2026 156 31.3N 90.4W 994 30 1200UTC 11.10.2026 168 31.8N 90.3W 1006 25

Good morning from Detroit

Whatever forms in the Gulf it looks like we get the leftovers next weekend

Congrats NNE on the 12z GFS

0.6” or so to start the month

October is not ending up like 2018, 2019, 2023.. They were cold in the Rockies and Midwest. Looks like opposite pattern is setting up this Oct

Periods of light rain moving through.

You could be right.Hardeman Co in TN had had a EF4 right before Christmas 2015, which tracked from MS,so regardless you can never say never.But in still 2015 was a well pronounced Central based NINO compared to this year,most of the severe should be further towards the Gulf states and not into our region this winter

1.25 Largest 24 rainfall event since the late spring...

Our most recent severe cold/snow Winters in October If you take out 2014 because that Winter had a record breaking ridge over the West, the October composite is much colder.

I mean…you could I was born in Fairbanks.

God, I hope that grouping fails spectacularly moving forward....I'd just assume drive out to the desert's of Albuquerque and shot-gun a cactus than experience anything akin to the past four El Niño events during this coming season.

Yeah it was kind of eerie after spending some time outside Fri afternoon and they were singing almost nonstop. Then we go from late summer to early fall just like that. Hopefully we can get at least a week or so of “Indian summer” before the door fully slams shut by mowvember.

Likely wait out a frost delay.

Looks like MPV got down to 32°. Unfortunately my PWS is down so I don’t know what I got down to here. As for foliage, I think this weekend was probably peak.

Of course Miller A is more prolific for the majority of the east coast, Miller B is dependent on N stream influx, so they are northeast centric....which is why we are more likely to get a favorable track and timing of evolution. Less time for it to go wrong....kind of like how storm chasers on the gulf coast would father a home-brew under pristine conditions than a CV long-tracker.

I don't give a rat's ass about the east coast as a whole, I care about MBY.

Never before have we seen such warmth so far east based, really historic