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Wow, I can't see them opening Sunday night. Monday however will be a definite powder day.

If I spent so many hours this past week in here instead of touching grass just for the NAMs output to be correct, idk if I will ever recover

both of these will end up wrong, go with the middle

Got un-nam'd this morning! Less than an inch qpf in the Northern Neck with a dry slot. Hahaha... Hopefully those models will bust but it's a huge red flag.

Rufus looking like it’s pushing sleet further north too

Who are you and what have you done to our TFlizzy?

12z RRFS (new / replace NAM) Snow by 3/4AM Snow through 2PM before mixing with sleet

Yes. Seeing a lot of folks on WxTwitter in Nashville surprised at how much snow if falling there.

Yeah, exactly. I’ll be checking surface obs compared to radar west of us.

I like what someone said above. Models are wrong, but useful. I have a lot of respect for GSP NWS because they use the models as tools and then lean on experience for forecasting. Kendra Kent is more like that. Where Chris J wennies on every single model.

Like someone always says with the SWFE, in early with the snow and in early with the sleet.

Thanks for the humor!

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Not much. If the NAM is right, any concerns from sleet are balanced by an increase in QPF there.

Well the Euro, NBM and everything else knew also. If they think nobody knows about other models.. shit! Meanwhile I'm up for jinx post of the year.. CAD never wraps around in winter (CHA). Only when I want to chase storms it stabilizes things. Revised rules. CAD wraps around only when I don't want it; kills storm chances, promotes ice. When I want help for snow it fails. KCHA is running a couple degrees (or more) below guidance. Still think we'll thaw Sunday, but I'm gonna need power through Saturday for college hoops on TV!

Ya'll over here analyzing end of run hrrr maps and models we'd never look at cause they are garbage. Hard to keep reading this thread right now. lol.

Yeah no kidding. Monster QPF.

Pretty wild…. I’ve got 20dbz on top of me with not a flake making it to the ground. .

Ok I like to see that 1” line jumping up and over my fanny my call for MHT: 16”

I didn’t say all in I said weighing its solution.

Time for rock, paper, scissors

“Good” ZR event = oxymoron. No bueno. .