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Raining. Didn’t see this coming

Yeah, if it was early June, I would have entertained the thought of an active Atlantic hurricane season. But we're now in early August. If we were going to have an active hurricane season, we would have seen something by now. (Even last year we had Beryl.) Instead, we are at about 2.5 ACE. Yes, I can see a big storm like Hurricane Andrew hitting at some point in the season, but that will be an outlier on the season, just as Andrew was in 1992 (another year that was very active in the Pacific, not so much in the Atlantic). For the most part, the Pacific is going to be active, and the Atlantic will be rather quiet. We're close to halfway on the hurricane season. The tiger isn't going to change stripes at this point in the season. 155 ACE has very low probability, and would be like if the Rockies made the playoffs this year.

Light rain/drizzle. Just a trace. Mostly cloudy all day and kinda gloomy. The lawn is a browned out wasteland in many spots here. I suspect there will be some new D0 expansion when the new drought map drops tomorrow.

Evening notes:

There are no legit New England hurricane hits on the ensembles.

Euro however is a huge torch. If we have mostly southerly flow it'll be the 92/75+ type conditions, if westerly downslope with 20+C 850s many of us will make a run at 100 but have dews more in the 65-70 range.

Rain has finally moved in. Picked up .42" so far.

End of the GFS run is really funny.

I mean, the switch flipped somewhat early this year

Legitimately if this had not started out as one of the lowest winter time volumes recorded this would have been an amazing retention year. The pattern was damn near perfect to lock in ice and cooler temps. The biggest help has been the lack of Canadian warmth up to the Archipelago. I don't even think the NW passage will open this year given we have about 3-4 weeks left of melt, unless this pattern completely flips on us.

I believe it

I'm ready for Blizzard Warnings already lol

In the third world country that is the US the answer is yes. How is a scientific fact politics

Some of the accounts on weather platforms are getting too caviler and cocky in their eyerolls about the GFS. We are in August during what should be a favorable MJO phase and *unlike last year* models show a ton of activity in the coming weeks. The fact that model runs from the GFS to the EURO have shown significant hurricanes after mid August is very troublesome, especially since they have been consistent. Be ready, it is on the way.

oh wow, radar says Jonesville next to Hillsdale got 3-5". That's insane from such a random shower type of a weather pattern!

oui oui baguette

Are you leaning for or against TC genesis?

THIS WAVE HASN'T SPLASHED DOWN YET BUT DESERVES ITS OWN THREAD ANYWAY POST MODEL RUNS HERE

Cuba looks like a crooked nose in between two crazy eyes. Too bad it couldn't be some dumb twin names like Hurricane Bert and Ernie.

Yeah, but I’m not necessarily tracking for US impacts anymore—more for how TC genesis occurs or not in this case.

lmao you beat me to it! I was about to post this hahah. Day After Tomorrow Vibes!

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Ehh even if that develops it will just ease off to the east and east northeast once it gets to the latitude of say Cape Fear NC.

Few drops here. Looks like a dry stretch coming up before the next heat wave which will help it get hotter.

I had my 20th storm of 2025 this aft but it sort of went to my east, just got sprinkles and long, soft rolling thunder for 30 mins. 140 strikes. It was the very rare due south dir cells. Crickets started yesterday. Mostly cloudy today and with all the smoke its becoming less sunny now, oof!! That 10 day last week showing mostly sunny for the next period here really busted not just for smoke blot but typical cloudiness.