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Region 1.2 has warmed again, spekaing to the vaolatility that Paul mentioned, but the subsurface remains supportive of an east-biased event.

Considering the magnitude of warmth that is likely for the second half of September, the odds are tilted toward a warmer than normal October. It has been a long time since a September 16-30 as warm as this year's will likely be, has been followed by a cool October, even against the 1991-2020 baseline. CFSv2 Forecast for October 2025: Current CPC Monthly Outlook: The most recent ECMWF weekly forecast showed the potential for a cool start to October but very warm conditions in central Canada. So, a warm outcome is not cast in stone, but the combination of the CPC outlook, CFSv2 forecast, and statistical odds suggest that a warmer outcome is more likely than a colder one. Nevertheless, the highest odds of a warmer than normal outcome are probably in the western half of the CONUS and Canada.

96.25%

Sept coming in AN everywhere at month end. Another warm month , Congrats on the rain NNE FTW

I'll believe it when my new rain gauge actually shows that. My backyard is just dust.

Clown maps for now.

CMC

I recall reading something like that a month ago. Actual water coming from the sky - first drops since Sept 7. Colors coming on and looking decent, though leaf drop is way ahead of average - 50-75% drop on ash, 30% on white birch, less on other species (except oak, which is still green. Only foliage loss there is squirrel work).

You'd hope we'd get some heavy rain at some point with this humidity sticking around for the rest of the week.

Rgem a soaker

same. feels like it is going to be a long fall, meaning that leaf drop will not come all at once (except for the oak trees)

You're right, haha. I saw it was the last on the list and assumed Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Yeah looks about the same up at Stowe. I had to go to BTV and back this morning, steady rain the whole way there and back. Seems like most spots are in that third to half inch range. A few up to three quarters in the Underhill area.

I have the Ambient Weather WS-2000, there is a built in solar panel to keep batteries charged. I have had it over 3 years now and have not had to replace the batteries.

78 / 65 sunny for now.

Up to .45 at home. I wasn't sure we'd get even that much. Still raining here at the office in Waterbury and it looks like we have a little more to go.

dry summers and autumns show some correlation to ensuing winter temperatures - colder not sure about 2026, though ... such is so during prior/older climate generation

Yeah my P&C has 30% chance today... HRRR says 100%

Live free or dry?

Lots of meh color and leaf drop. I’ve never seen this many leaves down with a week to go in September.

Sorry, also wanted to mention that no game dates have been scheduled yet for next season, so we're not sure what time of year it will be.

Thanks! Yeah, we're super pumped for that one. I've never been to the Pacific Northwest, outside of airport stops (doesn't count ha), and I've heard nothing but good things about Husky Stadium.

Backloaded summer!

Here, the maple leaves are turning a vivid red, and falling. I still do some landscaping in Brattleboro, part-time. Leaf season coming up with the big ol' beast of a leaf sucker. K-ching! We reuse it as mulch and then compost the next two years.

i like our chances wed night with deep moisture and a warm fropa