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I don't understand model lines lol. I was always under the impression the 540 line is your freezing line. Is that just completely inaccurate? lol

No I mean the thermals part.

I don't want them to because it has it's strengths if you know how to use it.

Even a 2-3” deal would be the best snowfall of the year in my yard. Interested to see the thermal situation over the next few runs. It’s been suspiciously close to 33°.

I could be 1000000% wrong on this but I think the holdup with that is there still is alot of work which needs to be done with its replacement. The NAM still remains the only model really which handles CAD extremely well and seems to be best in situations with hung up fronts and nearby boundaries. Getting rid of the NAM right now could be pretty horrific in some forecasting situations

It's a much better model. NAM might be worse than the GFS.

What about the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast ensembles?

Hey all, you’re nc event few weeks back. Did the euro end up caving to other models inside 2 days or something? I feel like the gfs did well with it.

In fairness almost all guidance has rain for the area thru 7-9PM sunday with temps crashing after that. Question remains how much precip is left after that time.

I would tame expectations the dual low needs to be watched could it be the gfs is about to cave come 12z?

Yea. I don’t why people need to be negative. If they don’t think it is not going to happen then why be here. Just to say you were right?

This is Mt. Holly’s high end forecast (10% chance of verification).

Even at 60hrs, I'll take the Euro over the NAM.

Looking at the SREFs, NAM, RGEM, ICON....those are all pretty significant run to run jumps with the coastal in the direction we want. Normally by this point in our fails we are already trending very much the opposite....

They’ve been talking about getting rid of the NAM for five years and never do

This was the prior run at 03Z; so yeah its better lol .

Check the 6z ukie. Its further west and rains lol

Isn't the SREF going bye-bye too later this year? I'll be sure to shed a tear

Never realized that...

just heard joe lundberg on 1010 saying the same thing; rt 1 in woodbridge closed both ways since this morning, what a mess. glad i'm retired. still got stuck in it at 630 on my way to walk; by 8 they were closing the northbound side as well. accident investigation. people can't drive in the rain, it seems. hope no one was killed.

Inclined to lean that way too. Haven't put a whole lot of effort into this until last night/this morning and looking at past models it does seem to be a bit of a trend in that way, at least short term. We can only hope 12z continues in this direction.

Pouring

Probably time to start looking at cams for thermals now though

NAMAI is over the accordion