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True, I was kinda worried to see that trend south..but I do trust the EUROAI more.

Yes I agree those temps will bring high ratios

We need the first phase to be nearly perfect with next to no southern energy left behind for a HECS. For 6z this looked like a good consensus but now with 12z shifting the other way I agree its time to put those talks on hold till we see which way it goes at 18z and 0z.

Redevelops like the euro had with all that backside energy.

Euro suite slowed down overnight which definitely helped getting the storm north. I think that’s definitely what we want, a bit slower evolution that still gets plenty of northern stream involved…but that delay will allow the TPV to lift northeast and ease some of the confluence over us.

It's significant, but notably lighter than the 0z solution.

Gotcha, thanks!

CMC is kind of like PD 2003 storm, just lighter and a bit south.....a stronger southern system pushing a bit north would help a ton. Watching the radar loop from 2003, you can almost imagine that is what it would look like if the CMC run were to play out as is today at 12z

Holy crap lol

The Euro AI has been adjusting south too.

Looks like 13 on Kuchera.

Boom @ 150 with a 2ndary forming

If there was ever a time to consider Kuchera it's with a storm like this. Gives the area almost a foot. .

Yep a little less but a good hit

GFS starts the storm on Saturday and doesn't fully clear the SC and GA coast until Wednesday.

Man the Eastern shore gets pounded this run of the CMC.

DC freakout commencing after that gfs run

CMC looks great

Total QPF (down from 00z but not much)

And we love you too GGEM.

Nah that happened with the +Bz on what could have been the aurora of the half century. Canadian still Quebec 1998s us. Euro isn't as destructive but still a lot of ice. GFS is now getting back into more ice. NWS has the 50/50 odds around I-40 which seems reasonable. Obviously, I'm praying hard for all snow. Yeah the forecast differences are with the two pieces of energy. Does the northern stream block or does the WAA punch through the line? (football metaphor)

Yeah this is why you don’t start threads 5 days out imo. Major negative changes on the gfs and cmc. Suppression is definitely on the table.

Canadian trying for the Miller B transfer, but as has been mentioned, it's trended south hundreds of miles last three runs

If the gfs was the only model showing a big snow at this range and other showed nothing would you think it was right? I’m still waiting on that blizzard it gave me last Thursday.