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Winter 2025-26 was like winter 2014-15. Record breaking warmth out west, and cold in the East. It's almost impossible to have a cold CONUS winter like 2009-10 and 2010-11 anymore. When there is historic cold on one side of the country, you can almost bet the other side is having widespread record warmth. There is an increase of +10 temperature departure months starting in late 2011/early 2012.

I think it’s unlikely we’ll have that long of a period with below normal temps that allowed us to have that incredible run. I think a 2015-16 scenario would be on the table, but also 97-98. Very boom or bust winter seems likely.

Can you explain why a 2009-2010 type winter is on the table or unlikely again?

you're still alive?

Right I checked again and clouds were still there at 12 and 1 am oh that’s very interesting and good to know didn’t know that actually thanks that’s pretty neat glad you got to see a rare opportunity for meteors Yes I am in discord servers with people in Europe and uk and they were posting photos of the solar eclipse pretty neat stuff yep ikr and same the 2017 one feels like a decade ago almost can you believe it wow Dang another solar eclipse that’s pretty neat in 2027 but yeah unfortunately wish that sort of thing could stop I bet Spain got a lucky treat yesterday sort of like the one maybe in 2017 perhaps not sure the next one won’t be until 2045 I think but that’s in the Deep South Hope that the livestreams and photos online can help that neurotic feeling of the solar eclipse for 12 months were pretty amazing photos videos online from yesterday .

Yea that was my thought also. Sometimes an average when there are two distinct sub sets within the analogs is the least likely outcome! I get it that some feel pressured to make a definitive forecast but the truth is a good forecast would be to say “we have an elevated risk of a historic snowstorm this winter, it’s going to be wet, but it might end up too warm and in that case a snowless winter and it’s about 50/50 odds”. If people aren’t smart enough to digest some nuance and ambiguity oh well. Fake certainty does no one any good.

Yeah, the cold was definitely legitimate in the East. NYC for example had a 16 day stretch during effectively peak winter that ranked top 3 coldest, and I believe it was don who also noted that the same site had its coldest La Nina February in 90 years. Impressive metrics in a warming climate.

So the nw pacific does have leaking molten java from the floor bottom. I got laughed out of the room years ago when I suggested that warming is from the bottom up and not the top down due to puny mankind. The planet is dominated by oceans and ice and about 4 % developed and populated which is ridiculous to suggest cow farts and cars are doing that. The planet is a pot of water and those pots very rarely warm firm the top down

Thanks Paul still some Wildfire smoke upstairs going on. Smoke has been going on for days now. I would like to see the blue skies again instead of the milky whitish blue stuff.

Depends where though . NYC haven't seen a week straight of temps in the 20s in a long time until last winter.

i just thought the cold last winter was overhyped. It’s called winter it’s supposed to be cold.

CFS and ECMWF are both pretty cold for core winter. However several other season models are warmer. I suppose if one cranks up the El Nino signal it goes cool South. +PNA would be expected if the PDO gets lined up - still TBD. Then yes the -NAO can happen with forcing downrange and poleward of the Tropics. That's all review for many readers, but with noting. My thinking is that the modeling is not yet coded for such a warm Nino. I figure we flood the atmosphere with warmth across the board. Sadly if the South does get BN temps it might be cloudy crappy days with meh nights. Figure we'll get a few cold weeks, but most of summer I'm thinking blowtorch from El Nino Godzilla.

Still had high clouds before Midnight. I did not wake up before dawn to check again. Normally I would check at that 3am pee break but I never woke up. I mention times after Midnight because it is our most favorable angle. At 3am the dark side of the Earth is speeding forward. Early evening we face backward. The later times forward face theoretically makes more meteors visible. However the biggest, brightest, longest fireball in my life was mid-evening and not during any advertised meteor shower. Then I saw the total eclipse video from Spain. I'm surprised how impactful it was that late in the day and low in the sky. Wish I'd been there. We are waiting for 2027, Europe and North Africa's eclipse of the century. Some great climo but poor geopolitical risks. Yesterday would have worked really well anywhere in Spain. So, I'll be eclipse neurotic for the next almost 12 months.

ehhh 6/10 Get temps up another 10 degrees and dewpoints another 7-10 then we can talk beautiful

“On 11 September 1992 Hurricane Iniki scored a direct hit on the island of Kaua‘i. Over a period of only 3 hours, the category 4 hurricane (on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale; Simpson 1974) caused damage equivalent to the total general fund budget of the state of Hawaii at that time and wiped out the historical profits of the Hawaii homeowners insurance industry.” That is a staggering amount of damage. 1871 looks really bad too based on the descriptions.

Now that’s a storm.

Where can I go to make one of these? lol

Beautiful summer day out there

Close, CVG topped out at 70. Only topped out at 70 here, too. Got 1.13" more of rain here yesterday. Now at 5.91" for the month so far, currently the 9th wettest August on record. Top 10 Wettest Augusts (KDAY) 1. 8.03" - 1974 2. 7.95" - 1979 3. 7.54" - 1995 4. 6.98" - 1978 5. 6.64" - 1912 6. 6.59" - 1926 7. 6.42" - 1982 8. 6.40" - 2001 9. 5.91" - 2026 (as of 8/12) 10. 5.56" - 1906

I'll b waitin