H2Otown_WX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That TWC map really irks me. How could you forecast that much in this scenario? Absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 So 18z GFS gives me All Rain. So Happy Thanksgiving. See you guys for the little disturbance Thursday / Friday. Expecting 0 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm awaiting 00z for final call, too. That's probably a good call. Watch the GFS and NAM go right back to where they were before and all this discussion is for naught. Maybe it's right, but maybe something funky got into the initialization schemes of the 18z NCEP progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That TWC map really irks me. How could you forecast that much in this scenario? Absurd.I am guessing it is not a forecast map. Prob just showing one model output x some goofy algorithm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I have been thinking sleet plays a role for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That's probably a good call. Watch the GFS and NAM go right back to where they were before and all this discussion is for naught. Maybe it's right, but maybe something funky got into the initialization schemes of the 18z NCEP progs. Probably some of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I am guessing it is not a forecast map. Prob just showing one model output x some goofy algorithm No I watched the video from their website. Whether it is an algorithm or not, that's what they're using as a forecast. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NWS has 8-14 for ORH and that doesn't sound too crazy if elevation is taken into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 We decided to punt until 0z(as most who have the luxury of being able to do appear to be doing) and see at least the NAM and RGEM before we make a call, have a few different maps made and can click publish on whichever one we decide to go with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NWS has 8-14 for ORH and that doesn't sound too crazy if elevation is taken into account. 14 will be too high for the city. That warm tongue doesn't really care too much about elevation, although obviously the higher up, the last QPF you waste trying to wetbulb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 No I watched the video from their website. Whether it is an algorithm or not, that's what they're using as a forecast. Unreal. Wow. I am dumb founded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 14 will be too high for the city. That warm tongue doesn't really care too much about elevation, although obviously the higher up, the last QPF you waste trying to wetbulb.I don't think anyone in SNE gets above 12"Even 10" might be the max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 850 and 700 further west and warmer then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Harvey 1-2 for me. 2-4 out past 128 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Interesting comments by Pete Bouchard during his last segment. He said the models have trended warmer and there is a possibility the snow makes it to Worcester before peeling back again. Also he added he is thinking of changing his current forecast to heavy rain at the 10 PM update if the models continue to trend warmer. I do not think his line of thinking can be discounted out of hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I am guessing it is not a forecast map. Prob just showing one model output x some goofy algorithm Weather Channel actually had 12-18" on their forecast map last night for much of CT and Mass, lol. I agree with the general WGGB map for most of New England... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 If the 700 low is developing and moving on a BDL MHT axis, where will the CF be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Possibility of snow making it to Worcester? That possibility is 100%. Possibility of rain in ORH after snow? 0% Don't know what Pete sees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'll go with a euro/rgem blend. BDR: 3" HVN: 2" DXR: 12" BDL: 6" There will be a tight gradient in Fairfield county. Further NW the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'll go with a euro/rgem blend. BDR: 3" HVN: 2" DXR: 12" BDL: 6" That's not a bad forecast, but that's not a EURO/RGEM blend IMO. If you're taking straight 50/50 EURO/RGEM, you're looking at at least 6" at your southern 2 stations considering RGEM was a foot+ there even assuming the EURO was all rain(which it wasn't). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Danbury with a foot? Wow..that place is typically a snow hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Danbury with a foot? Wow..that place is typically a snow hole Danbury is a snow magnet. I've lived there, it's a magical place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Possibility of snow making it to Worcester? That possibility is 100%. Possibility of rain in ORH after snow? 0% Don't know what Pete sees. He thinks the snow will make it to Worcester, then perhaps hits a roadblock before peeling back away from the Worcester area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That's not a bad forecast, but that's not a EURO/RGEM blend IMO. If you're taking straight 50/50 EURO/RGEM, you're looking at at least 6" at your southern 2 stations considering RGEM was a foot+ there even assuming the EURO was all rain(which it wasn't). Should of said not an even blend. Weighted more towards euro but taking rgem into consideration off its great year last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 He thinks the snow will make it to Worcester, then perhaps hits a roadblock before peeling back away from the Worcester area.That makes no sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't think anyone in SNE gets above 12" Even 10" might be the max Pretty meh storm for November, maybe better luck next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Pretty meh storm for November, maybe better luck next year.Stay safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Lol that wording makes it sound like the snow reaches ORH and then moves no further north and the precip shield collapses back SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 If the 700 low is developing and moving on a BDL MHT axis, where will the CF be? Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That makes no sense... Don't kill the messenger lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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