Allsnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 As often occurs in these situations, collaboration between the NYC and Philly NWS offices could be better. No way that Staten Island, to my east and Union County, to my north, can have 2-4" and 4-6", respectively, while adjacent northern Middlesex County has 1-2" for most and 2-4" for the far NW part of the county. It's also rare that Trenton and Philly do better than Edison, when it's not a storm that's suppressed to our south, i.e., when the total precip is about the same, implying that there will be more rain in Edison. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php Great to see you back for another winter storm! I like 2-4 for us along the 95 area…..think the bigger totals 4-8 starts around MMU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Don't see anyway this doesn't start as pure rain with temps in the lower 40s city and coast going to be very hard to drop into the mid 30s without heavy precip given its going to be during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Don't see anyway this doesn't start as pure rain with temps in the lower 40s city and coast going to be very hard to drop into the mid 30s without heavy precip given its going to be during the day Have you read the past few pages of this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Great to see you back for another winter storm! I like 2-4 for us along the 95 area…..think the bigger totals 4-8 starts around MMU Good call. Violently agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 the AO was -2.5 about a week ago and sometimes storms come around the ao minimum...it could be another year where the ao isn't the driver...temperatures are starting out pretty high for the beginning of the storm...Nov. 1955 is the first snowfall I remember a little bit about...what I remember about it was it was a wet snow...0.38" of water equivalent and 1" of snow...temperatures were in the 30's...it could be a quicker, drier, colder event...if so 1-4" in the city can still happen....Time will tell... Unc. I would have been 8 years old. If the storm started or was progressing in the evening then it's the one i remember. I was with my parents on 86th st between 4th and 5th Ave.. The old time over side walk only Christmas lights were still unlit. I remember watching the snow by looking up to the street light. No accumulation at that time. I have no memeory of much therafter. I'm curious of the day of the week you have tha paticular event taking place. Again Unc., thanks for the memory jog. Rich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Don't see anyway this doesn't start as pure rain with temps in the lower 40s city and coast going to be very hard to drop into the mid 30s without heavy precip given its going to be during the day It's late November,not October. Also, what models show temps in the 40s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 SREF is colder for the coast. 1+Qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 SREF is colder for the coast. 1+Qpf. Did the precip shift at all? West or East or pretty much the same just a tad colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Did the precip shift at all? West or East or pretty much the same just a tad colder Ticked east pretty good. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_057_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=21¶m=precip_p24&fhr=057&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&ps=area&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141124+21+UTC&scrollx=432&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Did the precip shift at all? West or East or pretty much the same just a tad colder Low is on the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Low is on the benchmark Likely why it's a tad colder. Coast could do really well if other models tick a bit further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Likely why it's a tad colder. Coast could do really well if other models tick a bit further east. At this point even if you live in the cities or on i95 you don't want any further east...you just want stronger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Likely why it's a tad colder. Coast could do really well if other models tick a bit further east. The Coast needs a bit more than a tick... 50-75 miles to do " really" well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Trend has been east since yesterday. We still have a full day of model watching, any further east and things will get dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The Coast needs a bit more than a tick... 50-75 miles to do " really" well Wrong, that far east and we'll miss heavier precip rates. BM track and stronger storm will produce the results desired for the coast and that includes dynamic cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Trend has been east since yesterday. We still have a full day of model watching, any further east and things will get dicey. Huh?...most models had this storm Far East outside the benchmark, the euro and ukie were western outliers... The models came "west" as the euro and ukie went east, most converging in agreement in a benchmark run which has held most of the day.. I would not personally consider any of these runs " trending" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Wrong, that far east and we'll miss heavier precip rates. BM track and stronger storm will produce the results desired for the coast and that includes dynamic cooling Models are now converging on a further east track and weaker storm. I actually would have rather take my chances with a stronger storm with dynamics then a weaker storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Wrong, that far east and we'll miss heavier precip rates. BM track and stronger storm will produce the results desired for the coast and that includes dynamic cooling Current models are showing a benchmark track which currently is not conducive to what I would call a really nice hit for "coastal areas"... Unless your assuming that dynamic cooling is being missed by most models I'm not sure how u could think a further east track isn't better for city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Further east does not automatically equate to more snow for the coast weak rates won't cool the boundary layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Further east does not automatically equate to more snow for the coast weak rates won't cool the boundary layer But it does mean that the 850mb and 700mb lows maybe slightly more east with possibly less taint in the mid levels. Just inferencing. I haven't actually checked the difference between the mid level lows on the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Further east does not automatically equate to more snow for the coast weak rates won't cool the boundary layer Weaker rates? 50-100 miles inland are going to see outstanding rates... So why would you be loosing those rates with a slightly eastern track, I'm not saying it's ideal I'm just saying it's better than the current model setup imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Central Park has a mean of about 9" on the 21z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Mean up to 9" for LGA FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Not too shabby.., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Bigger amounts creeping closer and closer to all long island little by little! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ok think we are in agreement now on how thread the needle this is for the coast. What we really need is the weakening trend to stop. What we do have going for us is the wonders of a juicy miller a. There will be plenty of moisture to work with it's getting that moisture wrapped back into the met area that we want a stronger system for. I do not think anyone can make a real detailed coastal forecast until this event is well under way and we know exactly where banding sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Crunch time folks. Hope everyone cashes in. Leading off the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM a bit more amped, slower, and a tad west. Looks good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 More seperation on the NAM so less kicker influince from the trailing energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM a bit more amped, slower, and a tad west. Looks good right now. I think it's mandatory for the first post for any model run to say " more amped" lol just bustin balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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