TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 definitely going to be wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 definitely going to be wet Could it be the over done qpf NAM bomb that we've all been waiting for? Lol happens every storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Could it be the over done qpf NAM bomb that we've all been waiting for? Lol happens every storm Euro is wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Euro is wet. I know that... But usually once a storm the NAM puts out 2"+ liquid output for no reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The NAM is really juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The NAM is really juiced Placement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You can see why, the kicker is further back allowing for more amplification, and the low to be further west. Interesting to see that feature, will look for that placement on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Unc. I would have been 8 years old. If the storm started or was progressing in the evening then it's the one i remember. I was with my parents on 86th st between 4th and 5th Ave.. The old time over side walk only Christmas lights were still unlit. I remember watching the snow by looking up to the street light. No accumulation at that time. I have no memeory of much therafter. I'm curious of the day of the week you have tha paticular event taking place. Again Unc., thanks for the memory jog. Rich November 19th 1955...I was six years old...It was daylight as I remember it snowing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 dynamic drop the temp from 40-32 in 3 hours in the city…by hr 39 its a paste bomb from nyc-west... hr 42 heavy snow 2m temp 31 nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Right on Que NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Warm layer at 700mb for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 .75 in a six hour period too bad its the nam…but thats like 10-12 for all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Jeez. Heavy snowfall on nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Precip lingers longer too, what a weenie run outside of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 sv snow maps are 4-6 nyc and 6-8 north of i-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Jeez. Heavy snowfall on nam. Did I call it? Lol the infamous super NAM run... Now let's see if it sticks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 YOU JUST GOT NAMed! Sorry I couldn't resist... In all seriousness, while I wouldn't trust this solution, it will be interesting to see how the mesos handle this system as dynamic cooling will play a very big factor, and this is the time when we start to hone in on how that is going to play out. It will be interesting to see if the RGEM comes in similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 QPF totals are not that much more than the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Well its the range where the NAM does a solution like this, so take with a grain of salt. If GFS comes west, it will interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On phone how is the thermal profile for hpn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Well its the range where the NAM does a solution like this, so take with a grain of salt. If GFS comes west, it will interesting though. Looks very similar to the 12z EURO. This run is not that "crazy". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks very similar to the 12z EURO. This run is not that "crazy". Track is nearly identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks very similar to the 12z EURO. This run is not that "crazy". As Yanks said (and I agree with him), the NAM has toned it down QPF-wise lately, it used to be consistently 40+% too wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Great to see you back for another winter storm! I like 2-4 for us along the 95 area…..think the bigger totals 4-8 starts around MMU Thanks. Great to see you and everyone else again. Given the rest of the forecast and the snow map, it makes much more sense for the Edison area and northern Middlesex County to be in the 2-4" area. I've seen the NWS do this many times early on and adjust later. If you look at the point and click forecasts, NWS has us in the 2-5" range (1-3" during the day and 1-2" at night), while they have southern Middlesex getting 1-2". Honestly, I think they made an error in the map and will correct it later (I'm sure they're pretty busy, lol). I will say this: in such a marginal setup, with the error bars on track, intensity, cold air source/strength, etc., not needing to be large to produce very steep gradients in snowfall from SE to NW (generally), as forecast, the uncertainty and thus, bust potential, in either direction, for this storm are very high. It wouldn't take a large "miss" to move the 6" line from Phillipsburg to White Plains, SE to Philly to Central Park and it wouldn't take much to move the 2" line from I-95 to Phillipsburg to White Plains. Major late November snowstorms in the I-95 corridor are rare for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 For entertainment purposes only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Very similar to 12z Euro... 1" qpf line reaches E PA toward AVP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 No the Nam is not that crazy and it actually shows the BL cooling with the heavier precip rates that I haven't seen from the gfs. It's also similar to the Euro and in a decent range for us not to dismiss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The way people were posting about a qpf bomb, u got nam'd etc, I expected to see something huge. Solid run imop. Over an inch of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 HI RES NAM is not like the regular run. Not surprising.Les QPF on hi res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I dont know.what to think...the track is so similar to the Euro . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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