TonyLovesSnow Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 There's no magical switch that's all the sudden make things favorable once we hit December. It's going to be a long wait before we have a chance at anything and the first half of the month looks shot. That's ok though because historically it's the second half where the snow comes from. what?????? We might get a snowstorm Wednesday what are you saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Good to see the ensembles have a similar idea as the OP. I like the 0z putting of all the energy in one basket instead of splitting between two systems. The ensemble is just a bit colder to the east than the OP. But that's generally how things work between the OP and esnsemble at 120 hrs. The important thing is that the ensemble signal for a potential event. The UKMET shows the same thing now. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/UKHEMI_0z/ukloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Good to see the ensembles have a similar idea as the OP. I like the 0z putting of all the energy in one basket instead of splitting between two systems. The ensemble is just a bit colder to the east than the OP. But that's generally how things work between the OP and esnsemble at 120 hrs. The important thing is that the ensemble signal for a potential event. get_legacy_plot-web248-20141122101009-26743-1211.gif Indeed. Even the NWS Mt. Holly put a Facebook post up about the potential. Tricky situation for them given the amount of travel versus getting the info on potential out there without causing panic. Long way to go. Fun to be tracking so early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Indeed. Even the NWS Mt. Holly put a Facebook post up about the potential. Tricky situation for them given the amount of travel versus getting the info on potential out there without causing panic. Long way to go. Fun to be tracking so early in the season. I just like the idea that the two best models at this range have the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The NAO was negative there, albeit very east based but better probably than what we'll have here. I don't have the link for daily indices but thats a strong looking negative east based NAO with that low by the Azores, that may be a -1.5 - 2.0 or so. I was talking about the Davis Strait area which didn't have enough blocking to prevent the first storm from cutting a few days earlier. So it was on the first low to provide the cold, otherwise that second low would have cut or tun right over us will all the blocking east based. The first cutter set the table for the second event http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us1128.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I just like the idea that the two best models at this range have the storm. Was typing as you posted. The UKMET moved into number 2 verification wise after its upgrade last year. I like the pattern. It doesn't have to work out but I like the look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Was typing as you posted. The UKMET moved into number 2 verification wise after its upgrade last year. I like the pattern. It doesn't have to work out but I like the look I would just like the initial cutter early in week to leave the front far enough east so the second low doesn't hug too closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Was typing as you posted. The UKMET moved into number 2 verification wise after its upgrade last year. I like the pattern. It doesn't have to work out but I like the look Agreed. Someone posted a rather astute observation that we haven't needed a "perfect" setup for snow recently. The players are there on this one and seeing two majors (and the 12z GFS Para) have it at this range is solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I would just like the initial cutter early in week to leave the front far enough east so the second low doesn't hug too closely. The euro ensembles are further east so I'm not to worried about the center over AC . If this can deepen we cool and snow. To me the miss would be east not west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Wow some places in NW NJ dropped into the single digits according to the rutgers temperature map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The euro ensembles are further east so I'm not to worried about the center over AC . If this can deepen we cool and snow. To me the miss would be east not west. Yes, at this point both solutions are offshore it's just a matter of more or less tucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Wow some places in NW NJ dropped into the single digits according to the rutgers temperature map.Was 11 degrees at 5:30AM when I woke up with the kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 17 here last night. Coldest of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Pictures of Ice on the metedonack river. Pretty cool for November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Walpack went down to 5. Yes 5. That area is probably the coldest in NJ, with the pine barrens sometimes being a close second. Great radiational cooling as it sits at only 400-500ft with the surrounding areas up above 1,000-1,500ft. Here in NE Essex county I only dropped down to 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Dropped to 13.3 here last night. Many lakes/ponds are already freezing over up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 16 here . Small lakes and ponds already frozen solid . Not safe to go on yet of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 25 was the low here, the water in the rain gauge barely froze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Upto 55 here. Good day for the Christmas lights. 3 day warmup ahead of the next cold shot and potential first snow. Month is locked in a -3 to -4 and looks to finish beteen -2.5 and - 3.0 for most locals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 These next three days are what true Indian Summer would be after such a cold spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 First cold snap was quite impressive for November. 10 days 11/13 - 11/22 NYC: 11/13: 48/36 (-7) 11/14: 42/36 (-9) 11/15: 42/33 (-10) 11/16: 45/35 (-8) 11/17: 52/40 (-1) 11/18 45/35 (-12) 11/19: 36/22 (-18) 11/20: 45/31 (-8) 11/21: 37/28 (-13) 11/22: 44/28 (-10) EWR: 11/13: 48/35 (-6) 11/14: 44/34 (-8) 11/15: 44/29 (-10) 11/16: 44/29 (-10) 11/17: 49/29 (-2) 11/18: 44/23 (-12) 11/19: 33/21 (-19) 11/20: 47/26 (-8) 11/21: 38/24 (-14) 11/22: 45/23 (-11) LGA: 11/13: 48/37 (-6) 11/14: 43/36 (-9) 11/15: 43/34 (-11) 11/16: 44/35 (-8) 11/17: 53/39 (-2) 11/18 46/24 (-13) 11/19: 35/22 (-18) 11/20: 46/32 (-8) 11/21: 37/28 (-13) 11/22: 44/29 (-9) JFK: 11/13: 49/38 (-4) 11/14: 44/37 (-7) 11/15: 43/30 (-11) 11/16: 45/31 (-9) 11/17: 55/40 (+1) 11/18 46/25 (-11) 11/19: 37/23 (-17) 11/20: 48/32 (-6) 11/21: 38/28 (-13) 11/22: 44/26 (-11) TTN: 11/13: 46/33 (-7) 11/14: 41/31 (-10) 11/15: 43/28 (-10) 11/16: 43/25 (-12) 11/17: 47/38 (-2) 11/18 43/22 (-12) 11/19: 32/19 (-19) 11/20: 47/25 (-8) 11/21: 36/24 (-14) 11/22: 43/19 (-13) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Taking a break from the potential snow event, we have a wind advisory for Nassau, Suffolk, Brooklyn and Queens: http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ179&warncounty=NYC059&firewxzone=NYZ179&local_place1=Roslyn%20Heights%20NY&product1=Wind+Advisory&lat=40.77770&lon=-73.62099#.VHI_pYvF-So Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This is why we here have a fascination with weather... record low temps a couple days ago, record high temp possible tomorrow, followed by possible snow threat midweek... always something going on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Walpack went down to 5. Yes 5. That area is probably the coldest in NJ, with the pine barrens sometimes being a close second. Great radiational cooling as it sits at only 400-500ft with the surrounding areas up above 1,000-1,500ft. Here in NE Essex county I only dropped down to 23. Walpack just a short distance to the southwest of Layton...which generally holds many of the extreme cold records for the state. Being nestled in the Kittatinies allows it to drop lower than most everywhere else in the state. The top of High Point probably holds the lowest maximum temperature for Jersey...but its too windy up there to approach any of the extreme minimums found down in the valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Taking a break from the potential snow event, we have a wind advisory for Nassau, Suffolk, Brooklyn and Queens: http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ179&warncounty=NYC059&firewxzone=NYZ179&local_place1=Roslyn%20Heights%20NY&product1=Wind+Advisory&lat=40.77770&lon=-73.62099#.VHI_pYvF-So 18z NAM shows LGA 55kt winds at 950mb below the inversion tomorrow morning with some heavy rainfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looks like we could get a good dousing tomorrow morning. Sprawling system with quite a bit of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z GFS 950mb 50-60kt+ winds over NYC, LI, and NJ shore early tomorrow morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wow what a beastly looking storm on the national radar. Overnight into tomorrow morning looks really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 00Z KLGA RAP BUFKIT forecast sounding for 00Z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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