Jump to content

Photo

The 2013-2014 Winter Outlook Thread


  • This topic is locked This topic is locked
425 replies to this topic

#1
WilkesboroDude

  • Major Forecaster

  • 3,352 posts
  • Joined March 27, 2011

Let's get those early thoughts a rolling...(this thread does not mean the current winter will fail by any means).

Also rant here if you feel inclined to move on from the current winter to the next one...to help keep the sour posts out of the good discussion threads.

#2
MariettaWx

  • Meow

  • 6,176 posts
  • Joined December 9, 2010

I think its time to move farther north. Where they see more snow in a cruddy winter than we do in our best ones.

#3
WilkesboroDude

  • Major Forecaster

  • 3,352 posts
  • Joined March 27, 2011

I think they even suffered last winter...time to move up in elevation in NC. There will be places with more snow from just Hurricane Sandy in NC than my total for the winter.

Old obviously...but still a forecast he made.
AccuWeather.com Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi believes there is a significant chance for particularly frigid winters in 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 into 2014-2015.

#4
Cold Rain

  • Happy Halloween

  • 7,744 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010

Odds are, it will be colder than normal.

#5
Mr Bob

  • 756 posts
  • Joined November 18, 2010

I am going warm! Let the haters hate! Posted Image

#6
BIG FROSTY

  • No Lake Cutter's please !!!

  • 2,434 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010

I am going warm! Let the haters hate! Posted Image


I Hate warm winters!!! lol But I do like you Mr.Bob!!! Posted Image

Hope your forecast fails... Posted Image

#7
POWERSTROKE

  • Road Patrol

  • 2,418 posts
  • Joined November 14, 2010

Winter starts December 21 and we already looking at next year, lol!!

#8
nchighcountrywx

  • NC NW High Country & Charlotte Weather

  • 1,430 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

I do hate to admit it but I have a uncomfortable gut feeling the 16 to 34 inches of snow that fell from Hurricane Sandy will end up being the highest snowfall single event of this winter season (2012-2013). Hope I am wrong ! !

For the record, the 34 inch totals from Sandy were on Roan Mountain and Mount Leconte. Beech Mountain got 22 inches


=

#9
Cold Rain

  • Happy Halloween

  • 7,744 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010

Well, the 9360 hour GFS shows a massive -NAO/+PNA combo, so it looks like we're good.

#10
Brick Tamland

  • The People's Weenie

  • 6,349 posts
  • Joined November 16, 2010

I was just going to post someone will probably have a model that shows a good pattern emerging.

#11
MariettaWx

  • Meow

  • 6,176 posts
  • Joined December 9, 2010

Winter starts December 21 and we already looking at next year, lol!!


For the most people on this forum winter starts December 1st. This is supposed to be a science forum and met winter is December - February.
I'm going with a 50 / 50 shot landing either warmer or cooler than average.

#12
dsaur

  • Hurry up winter! I'm tired of spring and summer.

  • 3,369 posts
  • Joined November 14, 2010

Lol, I have to keep reminding myself that many here are much younger than me, and haven't experienced the mind twisting disasters that winter in the south often uses to break us down, and destroy all hope. And hope is really all we have, as models can only predict timing out a few days, at best, unless they get blind squirrel lucky. Last winter I held out hope until April 1st. not because of science, or deduction, but because I've seen things through the years that defy explaination to the mostly unscientific, like me. Deep snow in a warm spring, after endless bitter cold days without a drop of rain A blizzard in Ga. A freakin' blizzard in March...in Ga. IN GA!! All the long range or short range modeling and deduction can't nail every blip in the matrix. After a few years of heart break you just have to either go nuts, move, or wait to see what will happen. And hope for the best, lol. And if it helps to look at the goofy end of the GFS, and try to deduce patterns, then I think it is fine for us more left brained whack doodles...I know it helps me stay sane, even though I know it is a bunch of blind squirrels scrabbling about...and it's because I never had it before :)
When I was a kid all I had was a few minutes of tv happy talk weather for a model, and if there was a criptic mention of "rain, and 32" at the end of the five day, all I had was my fantasy deductions that it could mean sleet or snow chances...maybe.... and I would hope and hope :) And if Bob, for example, scoffs at my GFS delusions, as I know he is not a fan of the long, long range, I'm fine with that, because I know he and I share a favorite sleet storm, and that's a stronger bond than any discussion over the merits of long range models.... and, I also know when he or Cheez start to honk a storm, it's time to perk up, because I'm no longer stuck with a few minutes of happy talk tv, but have at my disposal scientific models and folks who know how to read them, and who know what they can or can't do :) I am today blessed with a fountain of knowledge at my finger tips, and knowledgable people galore...but I also have learned thru many hard winter times....you just have to wait and see what happens, lol. T

#13
buckeyefan1

  • 4,995 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

I am going warm! Let the haters hate! Posted Image

:lol:































:hug:

#14
nrgjeff

  • Rock Chalk Jayhawk

  • 1,003 posts
  • Joined December 7, 2010

Warmer than last year! Posted Image

#15
CandymanColumbusGA

  • 1,343 posts
  • Joined November 22, 2010

COLDEST. WINTER. EVA!!!!!!!!!!!

#16
Suncat

  • Oh, so happy...

  • 168 posts
  • Joined January 15, 2011

I'm thinking that this winter may be cooler than last year and much drier. Parts of NC may see their driest November on record! Posted Image

#17
rduwx

  • rduwx (rduwxwatcher @ eastern)

  • 1,977 posts
  • Joined November 16, 2010

I'm going w/ normal....Not cold, not hot, just normal.

#18
metalicwx366

  • The best looking extratropical storm!

  • 5,788 posts
  • Joined March 7, 2011

Nice.. This thread was created earlier than the 2012-13 winter last year. At least it was only a weej from the start of winter when that one was created. It was only November when this one was created. LOL. Warmest Winter ever!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#19
NCsandhills

  • icanhaztitlez?1!?!

  • 669 posts
  • Joined November 16, 2012

agreed with dsaur. doesnt matter what the computers say, mother nature can do whatever she wants...

#20
MariettaWx

  • Meow

  • 6,176 posts
  • Joined December 9, 2010

Mr. T said it best.

Prediction? Pain.....



#21
WilkesboroDude

  • Major Forecaster

  • 3,352 posts
  • Joined March 27, 2011

I don't foresee us undergoing the hottest year on record again for the US...

How is the ENSO forecast looking long term?

#22
eyewall

  • 5,000 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

Well we know one thing. If there are early snows in the east (late October or so) we are screwed.



#23
NCSNOW

  • 1,735 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010

Well we know one thing. If there are early snows in the east (late October or so) we are screwe

Spot on! If weexpierence another east coast high magnitude October Snow like the past 2 years, Then I'll be putting the nail in the coffins for winter before it even starts.



#24
BrierCreekWx

  • 164 posts
  • Joined January 12, 2012

I'm pretty confident now that it will be winter of 2015-16 before KRDU receives another 6" snowstorm. Of course I'm wishcasting based on the long range BCW ensembles, but I really believe all the cliff divers for January 2016 will come around, in time.



#25
FallsLake

  • 1,539 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010

It will be warmer than normal. What is that old saying "things come in threes". 



#26
eyewall

  • 5,000 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

Well I said this winter couldn't be worse than the last and it was pretty close. Both were absolutely horrid. With this in mind I won't even begin to speculate about next year.



#27
ncjoaquin

  • 595 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

Well I said this winter couldn't be worse than the last and it was pretty close. Both were absolutely horrid. With this in mind I won't even begin to speculate about next year.

 

 

I can't imagine 2 winters worse than the last 2 here. So, the worst thing that will happen here is that it's as bad as the last 2. Of course, there is still the rest of March and April to turn the tide. 



#28
wake4est

  • 254 posts
  • Joined December 2, 2010

5* lock forecast:

 

There will be some days warmer than normal, and a string of days with below normal temps.  There will be 5-10 storm systems that the southeast will track.  For many of us, it will be a devastating close call.  For others, they will see snow.  Wilkes will find a cure for broken skies, and Brick will tell us that the models have to trend in his favor because he is due for a good snow.

 

Take it to the bank.



#29
WilkesboroDude

  • Major Forecaster

  • 3,352 posts
  • Joined March 27, 2011

I think it will be another winter of crap for most. But if you are far enough north in the South-East you could see some marginal events work out. 



#30
Cold Rain

  • Happy Halloween

  • 7,744 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010

If the Pacific sucks, winter will suck. It's just that simple.

#31
metalicwx366

  • The best looking extratropical storm!

  • 5,788 posts
  • Joined March 7, 2011


If the Pacific sucks, winter will suck. It's just that simple.


NO. If there is an early east coast snowstorm, winter will suck.

#32
WilkesboroDude

  • Major Forecaster

  • 3,352 posts
  • Joined March 27, 2011

I guarantee some mets will say above normal snowfall, historical, blizzard, and mega pattern. 

 

That is all I can really guarantee at this time. Hopefully they are right this time.



#33
metalicwx366

  • The best looking extratropical storm!

  • 5,788 posts
  • Joined March 7, 2011

No the timeframe will keep getting pushed back.

#34
WilkesboroDude

  • Major Forecaster

  • 3,352 posts
  • Joined March 27, 2011

No the timeframe will keep getting pushed back.

 

That too. I even do that...sometimes the models are just to quick most of the time.



#35
WilkesboroDude

  • Major Forecaster

  • 3,352 posts
  • Joined March 27, 2011

Time to start looking at the long range Beijing model and what the ENSO might lean towards.

 

#December2Remember2013Wilkes





0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users