Sign In
Create Account
Sign In
Create Account
18z nam looks really good! LOLI think this is the trend.. the low will end up further S/E..Maybe we we get lucky...
Welcome to American Weather
|
Welcome to American Weather, serving top-notch weather discussion, info, and knowledge from professionals and amateurs across the United States. You must register to post in our forums, but this is a simple and free process. Please click the "Register Now" button to join or sign in now if you're already a part of the community. Being a part of our community lets you:
|
Winter Weather Expert Paul Kocin, Jack Beven from the NHC joins AmWx Conference II
0
February 16th-17th Potential Winter StormFirst Legit Widespread Winter Storm of the Season?
Started By
Powerball
, 12 Feb 2012 10:52 AM
#71
Posted 13 February 2012 - 04:13 PM
Back to top
#72
Posted 13 February 2012 - 04:13 PM
Donator
The afternoon AFD at IND says we're done. Not unexpected given the models the past few days and the trend of this winter in general.
Quote
LATER IN THE WEEK...LOW LEVEL TEMP/THICKNESSES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
WARMER...AND NOW APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIP FALLING FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY RAIN.
WARMER...AND NOW APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIP FALLING FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY RAIN.
#74
Posted 13 February 2012 - 05:04 PM
BeastFromtheEast, on 13 February 2012 - 04:06 PM, said:
Nice
And as Skilling always says 50-100 miles north of the H5 Low is usually where the best snows are.
And as Skilling always says 50-100 miles north of the H5 Low is usually where the best snows are.
#75
Posted 13 February 2012 - 05:08 PM
After reading APX's AFD, 18Z runs depict a major screw-over for therm.
#76
Posted 13 February 2012 - 05:26 PM
-
-
- 1,316 posts
- Joined November 13, 2010
The 18z is irrevelant. Disorganized and sloppy. Never trust a model until it gets inside 48hrs.
#77
Posted 13 February 2012 - 05:28 PM
Quad Cities nws thinks this system could end up even farther south than today's model runs. If so, this will be a complete miss for CR through Wisconsin.
#78
Posted 13 February 2012 - 05:37 PM
hawkeye_wx, on 13 February 2012 - 05:28 PM, said:
Quad Cities nws thinks this system could end up even farther south than today's model runs. If so, this will be a complete miss for CR through Wisconsin.
Yeah, I'm just about ready to expect a dry forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday; maybe a few flurries, if low level temps cooperate.
Of course, this is hopefully wrong, and perhaps just a knee-jerk reaction to the usually erratic 18z runs.
#79
Posted 13 February 2012 - 05:39 PM
-
-
- 1,316 posts
- Joined November 13, 2010
wisconsinwx, on 13 February 2012 - 05:37 PM, said:
Yeah, I'm just about ready to expect a dry forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday; maybe a few flurries, if low level temps cooperate. Of course, this is hopefully wrong, and perhaps just a knee-jerk reaction to the usually erratic 18z runs.
Of course, this is hopefully wrong, and perhaps just a knee-jerk reaction to the usually erratic 18z runs.Yeah, this isn't a phasing situation. Yesterday's 18z was weak as well.
#80
Posted 13 February 2012 - 05:43 PM
hawkeye_wx, on 13 February 2012 - 05:28 PM, said:
Quad Cities nws thinks this system could end up even farther south than today's model runs. If so, this will be a complete miss for CR through Wisconsin.
that has been the trend all winter and not only will it trend south, cold sector precip will fade as well
#81
Posted 13 February 2012 - 06:06 PM
KokomoWX, on 13 February 2012 - 04:13 PM, said:
The afternoon AFD at IND says we're done. Not unexpected given the models the past few days and the trend of this winter in general.
Not sure we ever really had a chance since this came into "reliable" model range. Only question is how cold the rain will be and how much.
#82
Posted 13 February 2012 - 06:20 PM
cyclone77, on 13 February 2012 - 12:06 AM, said:
Still looks like mainly a rain event for the QCA. May get a little snow at the tail-end, but not expecting much from this system. Pretty typical for this season. The more significant storm systems have had a tendency to be rain makers in this area.
Still agree with this from yesterday. As many others have already mentioned boundary layer temps are just too warm through much of the deformation zone.
#85
Posted 13 February 2012 - 06:36 PM
Thundersnow12, on 13 February 2012 - 06:35 PM, said:
Im at WGN to talk Skilling down.
From what?
#86
Posted 13 February 2012 - 06:48 PM
Chicago WX, on 13 February 2012 - 06:36 PM, said:
From what?
He is kinda liking the snow threat with this and talking up the GEM.
#87
Posted 13 February 2012 - 06:51 PM
Thundersnow12, on 13 February 2012 - 06:48 PM, said:
He is kinda liking the snow threat with this and talking up the GEM.
He is a bit of a snow weenie (in a good way, giving it its due attention) at heart from my limited knowledge. That being said, perhaps he has a point, although the GEM hasn't exactly been snow friendly through most of its runs for this storm anyway.
#88
Posted 13 February 2012 - 06:52 PM
Thundersnow12, on 13 February 2012 - 06:48 PM, said:
He is kinda liking the snow threat with this and talking up the GEM.
#89
Posted 13 February 2012 - 07:07 PM
Maybe Tom Skilling will be right! At this point we need to hope for some dynamic cooling.
#90
Posted 13 February 2012 - 07:10 PM
Thundersnow12, on 13 February 2012 - 06:48 PM, said:
He is kinda liking the snow threat with this and talking up the GEM.
Well the track of the 12z GGEM is fine. It's the lack of cold enough air that's sorely lacking. Alas, he's the degreed meteorologist.
#91
Posted 13 February 2012 - 10:23 PM
I'm hoping for Wisconsin to steal this one, could happen at this range.
#92
Posted 13 February 2012 - 11:06 PM
I certainly wouldn't write off the upcoming system Wed-Thu. That is one of those systems that can throw some surprises. If some of the model depictions of qpf are correct and we get a surprise bit of cooling in the boundary layer and a good track at 500/850mb on the system it can certainly snow like crazy somewhere. I think this system does, in deed, have a few surprises up its sleeve. I am not gonna give up on this one. We gotta get one of these to pull through.
#93
Posted 13 February 2012 - 11:07 PM
0z GFS sped the timing up enough to start the precip as snow Wed. night for YYZ.
#94
Posted 13 February 2012 - 11:08 PM
-
-
- 1,316 posts
- Joined November 13, 2010
Yeah, the lack of phasing is killing this one for Wisconsin and Iowa. A decent warm front and weak cold front behind it. A nice representation of this winter.
#95
Posted 13 February 2012 - 11:11 PM
Angrysummons, on 13 February 2012 - 11:08 PM, said:
Yeah, the lack of phasing is killing this one for Wisconsin and Iowa. A decent warm front and weak cold front behind it. A nice representation of this winter.
Yeah, it's really too bad.
The new RGEM continues to show a boiling BL.
#96
Posted 13 February 2012 - 11:14 PM
EGH.....EW.....UGH....This system is starting to look like S$%T.....Moral of this winter..NEXT...
#97
Posted 13 February 2012 - 11:19 PM
Its really a shame the Arctic air this Winter doesn't hang around more than 24-36hrs, this system had potential. But as I said, I'm not fully writing it off until tomorrow when I see all the newest data. I know that holding out some hope usually doesn't work out in the end, as the writing is on the wall pretty much- but you never know.
#99
Posted 13 February 2012 - 11:34 PM
BeastFromtheEast, on 13 February 2012 - 11:32 PM, said:
Snowfall map from MKE
lol that has the potential to bust badly.
#100
Posted 13 February 2012 - 11:36 PM
Thundersnow12, on 13 February 2012 - 11:34 PM, said:
lol that has the potential to bust badly.
#102
Posted 14 February 2012 - 01:01 AM
BeastFromtheEast, on 14 February 2012 - 12:50 AM, said:
Latest GEM looks different than the Nam and GFS..
Yeah, stronger/further north, but still mainly rain except for central Wisconsin.
#103
Posted 14 February 2012 - 01:05 AM
Chicago Storm, on 13 February 2012 - 05:04 PM, said:
marginal.
#104
Posted 14 February 2012 - 01:13 AM
Continues to be major differences between Euro and GFS/NAM. Euro favoring a more phased scenario resulting in moderate snow accumulations across WI and North/Central MI.
00Z EURO:
MSN: 0.35
MOP: 0.30
APN: 0.53
TVC: 0.53
Since DVN is iffy:
00Z EURO:
MSN: 0.35
MOP: 0.30
APN: 0.53
TVC: 0.53
Since DVN is iffy:
THU 00Z 16-FEB 3.0 1.4 1015 90 83 0.00 553 541 THU 06Z 16-FEB 1.7 -0.9 1013 99 100 0.47 550 540 THU 12Z 16-FEB 1.3 -2.8 1015 90 69 0.33 547 535
#105
Posted 14 February 2012 - 01:16 AM
kab2791, on 14 February 2012 - 01:13 AM, said:
Continues to be major differences between Euro and GFS/NAM. Euro favoring a more phased scenario resulting in moderate snow accumulations across WI and North/Central MI.
00Z EURO:
MSN: 0.35
MOP: 0.30
APN: 0.53
TVC: 0.53
Since DVN is iffy:
00Z EURO:
MSN: 0.35
MOP: 0.30
APN: 0.53
TVC: 0.53
Since DVN is iffy:
THU 00Z 16-FEB 3.0 1.4 1015 90 83 0.00 553 541 THU 06Z 16-FEB 1.7 -0.9 1013 99 100 0.47 550 540 THU 12Z 16-FEB 1.3 -2.8 1015 90 69 0.33 547 535
Advertisement
0 user(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users
