kab2791 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 By hr 48 on the 00Z NAM, it looks to be dropping that 3rd wave further south into MT/WY compared to the prior run. Good catch there. The NAM looks to be the outlier right now because it doesn't even have this 3rd wave which the GFS/Euro have and what happens with that determines what happens down the road across the plains/midwest. So we have to watch if this wave dropping into MT/WY is legit and if it is, the speed of it as well as the southern streamw wave as it moves east across the four corners into the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yeah the 0z NAM coming in quite different from its 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 And the 0z GFS comes in much stronger, takes the sfc low to the southern tip of Lake Michigan. Good snow band runs from eastern IA to Traverse City, MI. DBQ-MSN special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 GFS looks like 12z Euro! BAAm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I'll gladly take the NAM solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Meh... Keeping an eye on it all the same. Actually haven't minded the near snowless winter too much. After 4 years in a row of record winter, the break has been kind of nice. But, a storm is always something to get my attention, so, we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 And the 0z GFS comes in much stronger, takes the sfc low to the southern tip of Lake Michigan. Good snow band runs from eastern IA to Traverse City, MI. DBQ-MSN special. If it was just a tad cooler, and if it did come through at night for Chicago and Milwaukee as the GFS suggests, we might have a shot at a fair amount of that being snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Forecasting narrative is fairly simple this winter for storm systems. Expect rain unless all available evidence suggests otherwise. Can't wait for that exception to pop up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Still looks like mainly a rain event for the QCA. May get a little snow at the tail-end, but not expecting much from this system. Pretty typical for this season. The more significant storm systems have had a tendency to be rain makers in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 If it was just a tad cooler, and if it did come through at night for Chicago and Milwaukee as the GFS suggests, we might have a shot at a fair amount of that being snow. Milwaukee looks borderline on the 0z GFS. New CMC, shows the low going from QC to Bay City, MI. A bit like the GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Milwaukee looks borderline on the 0z GFS. New CMC, shows the low going from QC to Bay City, MI. A bit like the GFS run. GEM=rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 GEM is further south than 12z run. Some snow on the backside for NW IL and S WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 GEM is further south than 12z run. Some snow on the backside for NW IL and S WI. Keep in mind the precip shown there has already fallen by the 96hr mark. Most of the precip has already moved on by the time the colder air moves in. These maps can be misleading, as they show precip that has already fallen in the previous 6-12hrs, while at the same time they show temp profiles at the respective time stamp. This implies a far snowier scenario than what's really forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Keep in mind the precip shown there has already fallen by the 96hr mark. Most of the precip has already moved on by the time the colder air moves in. These maps can be misleading, as they show precip that has already fallen in the previous 6-12hrs, while at the same time they show temp profiles at the respective time stamp. This implies a far snowier scenario than what's really forecast. Ok, that explanation helps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Euro based on Snowfall WunderMaps is colder and further south with the L/P...Basically anyone north of 94 In S/E Michigan has the chance for some accumulating snowfall, especially across the Saginaw Valley.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Hopefully it trends NW as far as possible and it snows where they need it and has a better chance of sticking around for more than a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 This does look like our first panhandle hook storm of the season for the upper midwest! models finally agreeing. i have more at http://midwestweathertalk.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Euro based on Snowfall WunderMaps is colder and further south with the L/P...Basically anyone north of 94 In S/E Michigan has the chance for some accumulating snowfall, especially across the Saginaw Valley.. It's Rain or Wet Snow. Won't accumulate much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Seasonal trends would the southerly solution will win out. If that is a case it looks like a sloppy mess will be in the cards for some. If anyone is going to get a decent accumulating snow one would think the northerly track would need to win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Seasonal trends would the southerly solution will win out. If that is a case it looks like a sloppy mess will be in the cards for some. If anyone is going to get a decent accumulating snow one would think the northerly track would need to win out. yep, unphased, boring and warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 and the storm moves pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yet another low pressure b-lining towards detroit. Not sure why they like detroit so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Models are coming into line, all taking a potent low just to my southeast, and all dumping a heavy burst of precip through eastern Iowa. Unfortunately, temps are going to be marginal at best. The latest 12z NAM really hits me hard, but the 850 zero line sits just to my nw for at least half the storm. Last night's Euro gave me almost no snow at all because it's so mild ahead of and during much of the storm. Waterloo to sw Wisconsin would be the best area for mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Models are coming into line, all taking a potent low just to my southeast, and all dumping a heavy burst of precip through eastern Iowa. Unfortunately, temps are going to be marginal at best. The latest 12z NAM really hits me hard, but the 850 zero line sits just to my nw for at least half the storm. Last night's Euro gave me almost no snow at all because it's so mild ahead of and during much of the storm. Waterloo to sw Wisconsin would be the best area for mostly snow. smart money says NAM will trend drier and south like is has every time this year at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Alek I agree with you, but at some point one has to think that we will get a storm to blow up. Edit: but not if the GFS is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The only thing I've noticed on the 12zGFS that it is a tad further south with the L/p..the negative, lots of WAA...Lack of cold air.. The problem is when we get a strong system we don't have a lot of cold air, so obviously a strong system can easily pull warm air from the south, since there is not enough cold air to the North.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Say a prayer, hope for an earlier occlusion, but I think most of you guys are SOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Say a prayer, hope for an earlier occlusion, but I think most of you guys are SOL. obv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 at first glance the 12z Euro is a warning criteria event for DVN/cycloneville but the boundary layer is too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Euro is further south..maybe a trend?...Chicago looks good at hr 72>? Boundary layers are warm, but the Low does track Chicago-Lower Michigan- then N/E.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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