1709 replies to this topic

[Dryslot]

CoastalWx, on 10 January 2012 - 04:13 PM, said:

Enjoy it folks. Sigh.

Thanks scooter, Your folks must be seeing some out of this

[sbos_wx]

Sugarloaf, Shawnee, Or Bolton Valley...............

[CoastalWx]

Dryslot, on 10 January 2012 - 04:16 PM, said:

Thanks scooter, Your folks must be seeing some out of this

Nah, they just have a vacation place there.

I'd go up there myself with a 12 pack of Smithwick's if I had it off. I might go up Sunday..just to be around winter.

[Dryslot]

CoastalWx, on 10 January 2012 - 04:49 PM, said:

Nah, they just have a vacation place there.

I'd go up there myself with a 12 pack of Smithwick's if I had it off. I might go up Sunday..just to be around winter.

Ok, I thought they lived there year round

[CoastalWx]

Dryslot, on 10 January 2012 - 04:50 PM, said:

Ok, I thought they lived there year round

Maybe I should. Eh, what's a 90 minute commute one way? LOL. People do that every day down here with traffic.

[forkyfork]

sbos_wx, on 10 January 2012 - 04:47 PM, said:

Sugarloaf, Shawnee, Or Bolton Valley...............

marquette

[Dryslot]

CoastalWx, on 10 January 2012 - 04:51 PM, said:

Maybe I should. Eh, what's a 90 minute commute one way? LOL. People do that every day down here with traffic.

Yeah, I have been down in mass stuck in traffic many times on 95 or 128, Try to stay away from there early mornings and late afternoons

[slknight]

Looks like the coast is going to get screwed again.

[MaineJayhawk]

slknight, on 10 January 2012 - 05:18 PM, said:

Looks like the coast is going to get screwed again.

Three of the happiest moments of my life (in no particular order)

1) Birth of my kids
2) Kansas wins NCAA basketball title (x2)
3) Moved from the water's edge in Saco to interior York Co.

[Dryslot]

MaineJayhawk, on 10 January 2012 - 06:43 PM, said:

Three of the happiest moments of my life (in no particular order)

1) Birth of my kids
2) Kansas wins NCAA basketball title (x2)
3) Moved from the water's edge in Saco to interior York Co.

Great to be on the coast in summer, Winter, Not so much.......

[powderfreak]

Dryslot, on 10 January 2012 - 04:05 PM, said:

Kind of skinny on precip in the Mtns

That's what I was thinking....very surprised at only 2-4 for the mountains in ME and NH. I was thinking that's where a solid jackpot of 6-12 would be.

[Dryslot]

powderfreak, on 10 January 2012 - 08:28 PM, said:

That's what I was thinking....very surprised at only 2-4 for the mountains in ME and NH. I was thinking that's where a solid jackpot of 6-12 would be.

I think that will change I have 5-10" for there and prob another 2-4" fri with the ULL passage

[NorEaster27]

18z NAM and GFS are nice hits for the 'dacks.

[J.Spin]

powderfreak, on 10 January 2012 - 01:25 PM, said:

And snow core. 5.3" of water in 25" of depth. Decent amount of rain water in there from the weekly rainstorms we got through December.

I was curious about what we had here at the house, so I ran an analysis this evening and found 1.43” of liquid in the snowpack, which is at a depth of 4.5”. Not surprisingly, the snow here is a bit denser than up at 3,000’. I recorded 1.24” of total liquid at this location from the December 27^th-28^th storm, so that is clearly a major component of the snowpack. There shouldn’t be anything going on tonight in terms of precipitation, so I’ll send the snowpack data in with my CoCoRaHS report in the morning. If I have time I’ll try to do another one next week to see how it’s changed. It would be nice to have one of those snow samplers though – that looks pretty slick. BTV actually has a page on how to make one. In an average winter season at 3,000’ around here, I bet you would eventually be pushing the limits with only a 5-foot tube on your sampler.

powderfreak, on 10 January 2012 - 01:13 PM, said:

I did one last quick snow board check and so the totals for this minor event will be as follows:

3,000ft High Road: 1.8" (25" snow depth)
1,500ft Barnes Camp: 1.0" (8" snow depth)

Here at 800ft it looks like 0.4" and there's around 5.5" of snow on the ground.

Here at the house today at 500ft we picked up 0.2” of snow, comprised of a trace of liquid; that seems to fit in pretty nicely with the elevation trend of your accumulations.

[red]

After reading the AM CAR discussion it seems like they are going to go advisory instead of WSW. they're calling for 3-5 up this way. not great but I'll take it and run.

[J.Spin]

I managed to catch the on-air forecasts from Bob Minsenberger, Mark Breen, and Roger Hill this morning, and the general consensus for this area in the upcoming event was a start tomorrow morning, a general 2 to 6 inches of snow east of the Greens with spots up to 8 inches for the higher elevations. That’s followed by a dry slot later in the day extending into Thursday night/Friday, and then the second round of snow on Friday with 2 to 4 inches in the valleys and notably more in the mountains due to the upslope. Bob Minsenberger was the only one that threw out a guess on the sum total for the whole big event, but his estimate was a foot to a foot and half of snow for the Greens. Reading the forecast discussion of the BTV NWS, it sounds like they have similar thoughts; the point forecast for here tomorrow is 3 to 7 inches with a Winter Weather Advisory in place. The latest BTV advisory and snow estimate maps are below:

[adk]

J-Spin- I too went with some spots getting 18 or so when this all over. That upslope period will be pretty solid.

[Allenson]

Looks like it should be fun. I'd better dust off and start up the plow truck, which has been sitting idle for many weeks. I've used it only once this season so far--the day before Thanksgiving event was enough to plow. The only other time I plowed this year was from the 12/23 event (~4 here) and I used the tractor for that one.

10F here this AM.

[J.Spin]

adk, on 11 January 2012 - 07:38 AM, said:

J-Spin- I too went with some spots getting 18 or so when this all over. That upslope period will be pretty solid.

Thx adk – sbos_wx was inquiring last night about the upslope potential with regard to his Bolton ski plans – I figured you or Powderfreak would be the guys to respond with the latest thoughts. I’ll let him know to check in here. Are you planning to do any updates to your thoughts at Famous Internet Skiers? – I’ll refer him there as well regardless.

[adk]

I have a full write up at FIS.

The upslope potential is there for sure. I'm going with 5-8 overall upslope for Bolton.
THinking 5-6 front end, 5-8 back end.

[J.Spin]

adk, on 11 January 2012 - 08:09 AM, said:

I have a full write up at FIS.

The upslope potential is there for sure. I'm going with 5-8 overall upslope for Bolton.
THinking 5-6 front end, 5-8 back end.

Thx adk, I passed along the link to your write up in the main storm thread, so hopefully he’ll get a chance to see it.

[J.Spin]

I see that BTV updated their storm total snowfall forecast map from this morning; it seems more in line with what our point forecast says now. I’ve added the old (top) and new (bottom) maps below:

[gpetrics]

J. Spin et. al., any thoughts on why BTV NWS decided to have the NEW map only run through Thu. whereas the old map ran through Fri.?

Think they are tacitly acknowledging that they are confused about the second low, and just want to handle the first one first, and deal with the second one as a future advisory? Thanks!

Even if it is a tacit acknowledgement, I can see this move as only confusing the heck out of the lay-weather-consumers who will think this is a "bust" with "only" 4-6 inches, when the second low (as you all have been saying all along) is the "real" story and "real" weather maker...

[Teleskier_vt]

gpetrics, on 11 January 2012 - 08:28 AM, said:

J. Spin et. al., any thoughts on why BTV NWS decided to have the NEW map only run through Thu. whereas the old map ran through Fri.?

Think they are tacitly acknowledging that they are confused about the second low, and just want to handle the first one first, and deal with the second one as a future advisory? Thanks!

Even if it is a tacit acknowledgement, I can see this move as only confusing the heck out of the lay-weather-consumers who will think this is a "bust" with "only" 4-6 inches, when the second low (as you all have been saying all along) is the "real" story and "real" weather maker...

I believe the new storm map reflects the time period of the WSW, which ends at 7 pm Thursday. It will be interesting to see if they extend the WSW to cover the Friday event, or hoist a new warning. I agree that the change in map time frame is confusing. It confused me initially, as well. I am not sure why the first map went all the way to Friday 7 pm. Was that map pre-WSW?

[adk]

gpetrics, on 11 January 2012 - 08:28 AM, said:

J. Spin et. al., any thoughts on why BTV NWS decided to have the NEW map only run through Thu. whereas the old map ran through Fri.?

Think they are tacitly acknowledging that they are confused about the second low, and just want to handle the first one first, and deal with the second one as a future advisory? Thanks!

Even if it is a tacit acknowledgement, I can see this move as only confusing the heck out of the lay-weather-consumers who will think this is a "bust" with "only" 4-6 inches, when the second low (as you all have been saying all along) is the "real" story and "real" weather maker...

I believe that NWS is only producing their snowmaps for the next round because they don't do snow maps for snow that's more than 36 hours away. Or at least thats what I was lead to believe once.

[PyroCu]

gpetrics, on 11 January 2012 - 08:28 AM, said:

J. Spin et. al., any thoughts on why BTV NWS decided to have the NEW map only run through Thu. whereas the old map ran through Fri.?

Think they are tacitly acknowledging that they are confused about the second low, and just want to handle the first one first, and deal with the second one as a future advisory? Thanks!

Even if it is a tacit acknowledgement, I can see this move as only confusing the heck out of the lay-weather-consumers who will think this is a "bust" with "only" 4-6 inches, when the second low (as you all have been saying all along) is the "real" story and "real" weather maker...

The "old" map was a technical error. The current map represents the snowfall expected with the winter weather advisory (effective through 7pm Thursday). There will be additional snowfall Friday, but the graphic is meant to represent the snowfall for the advisory period. There are other ways to see the snowfall forecast for Friday, including the "hourly weather graph" available as a link from the NWS point and click pages.

[gpetrics]

adk, on 11 January 2012 - 09:09 AM, said:

I believe that NWS is only producing their snowmaps for the next round because they don't do snow maps for snow that's more than 36 hours away. Or at least thats what I was lead to believe once.

I'd have thought that too if the OLD map didn't extend through Friday. That's what confuses me...



EDIT: looks like the above post answers the question. Thanks!!

[powderfreak]

adk, on 11 January 2012 - 09:09 AM, said:

I believe that NWS is only producing their snowmaps for the next round because they don't do snow maps for snow that's more than 36 hours away. Or at least thats what I was lead to believe once.

Yeah my guess is they do it only for the valid time of the Advisory or Statement... and they generally don't issue like 48+ hour advisories to cover into the pre-dawn morning hours on Saturday when this all ends.

[powderfreak]

adk, on 11 January 2012 - 08:09 AM, said:

I have a full write up at FIS.

The upslope potential is there for sure. I'm going with 5-8 overall upslope for Bolton.
THinking 5-6 front end, 5-8 back end.

Nice dude... I'm thinking a general 6-10" for the mtns, or basically that's what I expect to fall on my two snow boards, up there.

I think there's still a decent bit that can go wrong and I think double digits at the very summits are possible, but may be more the exception than the rule down into the base areas. I like 6-8" for the 1,000-2,000ft band.

[mahk_webstah]

Jeff is nam screwing us? Oy....

[adk]

powderfreak, on 11 January 2012 - 09:44 AM, said:

Nice dude... I'm thinking a general 6-10" for the mtns, or basically that's what I expect to fall on my two snow boards, up there.

I think there's still a decent bit that can go wrong and I think double digits at the very summits are possible, but may be more the exception than the rule down into the base areas. I like 6-8" for the 1,000-2,000ft band.

Couldn't agree more. This is going to be a 4-18 inch type event. People who don't get above 2000ft are going to scream bust. People who don't get below 2000FT are going to say it was underforecast.

Personally I'm still confident that somewhere on the spine is going to get 12-18. Just feels right.
Overall I'd say 6-12 with pockets of more.

[Dryslot]

mahk_webstah, on 11 January 2012 - 09:46 AM, said:

Jeff is nam screwing us? Oy....

It has scaled back here on snow some 4-5" before we changeover, I will take whatever comes, Need to see the rest of the 12z pkg

[Hitman]

adk, on 11 January 2012 - 09:53 AM, said:

Couldn't agree more. This is going to be a 4-18 inch type event. People who don't get above 2000ft are going to scream bust. People who don't get below 2000FT are going to say it was underforecast.

Personally I'm still confident that somewhere on the spine is going to get 12-18. Just feels right.
Overall I'd say 6-12 with pockets of more.

Thanks. your forecasts are invaluable especially to those of us driving up from distant lands. I ran into a skier from NY last night who wasnt planning on coming up until saturday night based on the limited snow forecasted by NWS. I pointed him in your direction at FIS.

how do you see the wind situation? looks like friday might have wind hold issues.

[MaineJayhawk]

Dryslot, on 11 January 2012 - 10:30 AM, said:

It has scaled back here on snow some 4-5" before we changeover, I will take whatever comes, Need to see the rest of the 12z pkg

Seems to be the Americans v. the Foreigners. I hope the Americans get pwned.

[adk]

Hitman, on 11 January 2012 - 10:31 AM, said:

Thanks. your forecasts are invaluable especially to those of us driving up from distant lands. I ran into a skier from NY last night who wasnt planning on coming up until saturday night based on the limited snow forecasted by NWS. I pointed him in your direction at FIS.

how do you see the wind situation? looks like friday might have wind hold issues.

Very possible. However I doubt the wind holds will be in the normal places. Strough southerly winds from the angle forecasted on friday aren't that typical (we do get strong pre-frontal winds in winter quite often but those come w/sw as opposed to almost due south). So really it's going to be a go see what happens sorta deal on friday afternoon. One thing is for sure, if you take the model runs verbatim people will be saying "this storm wasn't a big deal" till around 2pm friday when all of a sudden like white death will be upon them with 50mph winds and snow squalls.