beanskip Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Nice closed 850 low over Mobile at 72 hours that wasn't there on 12z at 78 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks to me that the 18z nam is still going to be inland. The trough is almost neutral in E. Tx @ hr 69. The HP is already out in the atlantic around hr 60. The HP solution seems to be universally agreed upon all the models at this point. better to watch the trough axis and 850 low track. At 75 hrs, the trough is just barely negative, but this is a little slower to do so than the last run, which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Look, we have a problem, and a big one!! You better bring that Monkey back, don't delay, do it now!! To me this is the a 50/50 mainly because of the high to the north moving out, and the low creating it own cold. It rarely works out, we have had a few but boy this is really stretching it to get some snow. So the bomb looks to have already dropped off the planet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Could deal with that here in wnc... Yeah perfect track for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I disagree. Ground temps will be cold enough, combined with heavy rates which is key, that roads can become covered even with low 30s. Seen i5 happen too many times to not feel that way. Without heavy rates though, you are right, it would have a hard time accumulating on the roads. We will have a heavy wet snow however that will stick everything else I believe. Heavy rates are key, you are right. Track has to be mostly offshore in this situation to minimize warm advection, unless this truly is a bomb heading inland up the east coast. It seems most models backed off on this solution however. So the problem becomes more inland track like GGEM or Ukie gives good rates... as rain. Euro and GFS are marginal for snow in the Charlotte area, but give less QPF which I believe is underdone. We really need this to stay east and strengthen quickly or its rain rain rain without the high up in New England feeding cold air southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 At 75 it is still holding the gulf coast so it might not be as far inland as the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 5h Low not quite as berzerk strength-wise and a little more progressive -- hence, surface low a bit SE of 12z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 even though the hp has moved offshore in my opinion there is still a decent damming signature in the isobars and the dynamics from the beast verbatim off of the nam will switch you over to snow if your on the nw side of it once again this is just verbatim off the nam not a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 5h Low not quite as berzerk strength-wise and a little more progressive -- hence, surface low a bit SE of 12z position. it may be as strong, it's just slower to wrap it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Agree. Which may be a good thing, imo it may be as strong, it's just slower to wrap it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 335 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE GFS/NAM ARE SIMILAR WITH FORECASTING A SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY N GA WITH LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE WAVE WILL BE RATHER FAST MOVING WITH ONLY 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR THE NE MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SMALL SNOW ACCUMUALATIONS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DIEING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TO S OF LA. MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT WITH SUGGESTING THE CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR FAR N GA MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT POPS ABOUT 30 PERCENT FOR N AND W GA. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND NEAR TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOS NUMBERS SEEMED TOO WARM FOR THE MONDAY HIGH`S AND FAVORED THE FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS DIFFER ENOUGH FOR TUESDAY THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE FORECAST. THE NAM TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND THIS TRACK WILL ALLOW FOR NEARLY ALL RAIN ACROSS N GA. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN TRACK THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER S THAT SUGGESTS THAT RAIN OR SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVER FAR N GA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE BY DAYS END TUESDAY. THE PASSING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE COLD AIR IN QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT FAVORING A CHANGE OVER OR CONTINUATION OF SNOW CHANCES FOR N GA AND A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GA. THIS TIME FRAME WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ACCUMULATIONS. GFS/EUROPEAN SIMILAR WITH ENDING PRECIP CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND KEEPING THINGS MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED. BOTH MODELS BRING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. Ah yes... FFC still on the conservative 1-2" range. Nice. We see where that 1-2" forecast got them last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 As the late Skip Caray might have said: "The Nam is just zipping along today ..." Hope this run finishes before the GFS starts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 well it's actually not as wrapped up after all. that's not a bad thing. Similar to 12z Euro more or less. Better than the 12z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks like at H5 should pull the low into southern or even central GA on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z NAM looks like a 2" to 4" inch accum., for me, this is mostly after 7 pm Tuesday night, and ONLY if surface temps support it. I'll check soundings a little later as they become available. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Closed 850 low over SE GA at 78 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yes it is. well it's actually not as wrapped up after all. that's not a bad thing. Similar to 12z Euro more or less. Better than the 12z though. Also west of the 12Z NAM position...at the same time frame. Closed 850 low over SE GA at 78 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Even at hour 84 the NAM is rather warm in the lower levels. The 1000-850mb thickness 1300m line is still well west. Usually for all snow you want to be below the 1300m 1000-850mb, 1300-1310m could mean a rain/snow mix, above 1310 I would think mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 well it's actually not as wrapped up after all. that's not a bad thing. Similar to 12z Euro more or less. Better than the 12z though. Classic track to give you and me a dumping though. I'm really glad we have some pretty decent model consensus at this stage of the game. Does the euro lose the storm tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z NAM is really warm at the surface at 84, RDU and CLT is in the low 40's and everywhere NW is in the mid to upper 30's, including TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 North Al gets nailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 North Al gets nailed With a nice rain storm. I feel like we are tracking a spring rain storm now with how warm the surface is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The soundings for KCLT reveals a temp of 6.6C at 950, and 5.8C at RDU. I'm sorry, but all the dynamics in the world aren't going to make it snow with temps like that. Both the GFS and NAM have consistently been showing it this warm for several runs now. Assuming the temp profiles that are being projected are correct, one has to think mainly rain for most of NC outside of the higher elevations, but is it safe to assume those maps are correct? It's pretty obvious the trend is warm though, as we have pretty good agreement among guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The soundings for KCLT reveals a temp of 6.6C at 950, and 5.8C at RDU. I'm sorry, but all the dynamics in the world aren't going to make it snow with temps like that. Both the GFS and NAM have consistently been showing it this warm for several runs now. It's not even close to being snow on the NAM/GFS for anyone but the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ah yes... FFC still on the conservative 1-2" range. Nice. We see where that 1-2" forecast got them last time. I think that's the right call at this point, in fact it might be too much for some areas. Checking soundings and looking over everything, there is going to be a fair amount of just plain old cold rain with this one for us because the boundary layer is so warm. We are going to have to hope that strong dynamics with the passing upper trough/low and deformation zone can overcome the warm boundary layer. This looks possible over the northwestern part of the state from rome to possibly gainesville north. But for atlanta, athens, it could be tough...even though otherwise we would be in a fantastic position if it was a bit colder. This is sort of frustrating because in general the low track is normally a good one for us. But even subtracting the usual 2 to 3 degrees the models are off with when dealling with evaporational cooling, it's still too warm it would appear for a lot of the storm..if not most of it. Sort of depressing because when i left it looked like a good chance of a few inches here because surface cold air would not be a problem. Now I get back and cold air is lacking and we have to depend on dynamics to have a shot and to be frank that rarely works out if you are talking about here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The biggest difference in today's run and Yesterday, in my opinion is the fact that we were looking @ a system coming in about 24 hrs. later. Now that we have delayed the storm it gives the HP enough time to slide right off the coast. Plus we have no 50/50. Maybe DT is right on this one folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The soundings for KCLT reveals a temp of 6.6C at 950, and 5.8C at RDU. I'm sorry, but all the dynamics in the world aren't going to make it snow with temps like that. Both the GFS and NAM have consistently been showing it this warm for several runs now. Sorry, but I don't buy it yet. If it is still showing that on Monday afternoon, then I will start believing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The soundings for KCLT reveals a temp of 6.6C at 950, and 5.8C at RDU. I'm sorry, but all the dynamics in the world aren't going to make it snow with temps like that. Both the GFS and NAM have consistently been showing it this warm for several runs now. The ECMWF is warm like this to at 6z Wed. But there is significant cooling aloft between 6-12z at least in the RDU area. I will be intersted to see the 00z NAM at hour 84 to see if something similar happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 With a nice rain storm. I feel like we are tracking a spring rain storm now with how warm the surface is. Not so fast. You are taking those number too literally instead of taking into account what is going to happen. Close call for sure, but it could be just perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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