am19psu Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Discuss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't know what everyone was expecting, but the 00Z NAM looks good from my house...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Tonights 00z GFS actually trended a good bit north and west with what eventually becomes a more developed area of precipitation the northwest of the surface low. We could hope for a few more nudges to the northwest. For now, it's pretty good for those along the shores. Image courtesy goes to sv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Is this most likely like a 10:1 ratio event, or higher? I know for sure temps in the upper levels are essential for snow growth, not necessairly just surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm perfectly happy with this solution too... Tonights 00z GFS actually trended a good bit north and west with what eventually becomes a more developed area of precipitation the northwest of the surface low. We could hope for a few more nudges to the northwest. For now, it's pretty good for those along the shores. Image courtesy goes to sv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Is this most likely like a 10:1 ratio event, or higher? I know for sure temps in the upper levels are essential for snow growth, not necessairly just surface temps. Probably 12:1 to 15:1...850s are like -8C when the snow starts with surface temperatures in the upper 20s in NYC and mid 20s for the NW suburbs. A lot will depend on how much lift we get from the deepening coastal, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some solid ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GEFS means are actually way wetter than the 18z means....5" line on Eastern LI and the NJ shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 okx upped the totals somewhat; increased by 0.5" in my area... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Upton going with 3-5" http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ071&warncounty=NYC119&firewxzone=NYZ071&local_place1=Yonkers+NY&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 6z NAM is much juicier than previous runs, NYC metro sees about .4" QPF while Eastern LI gets .5"+ QPF. Definitely an improvement. The track on the 6z GFS also looks pretty tight to the coast with .25"+ QPF falling in the 30-hour frame. Total precipitation for NYC metro is around .35" with a bit more on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Can anyone in NYC verify how much snow is on the ground in Central Park? This webcam from Columbus Circle (on the south edge of Central Park) certainly suggests there is at least an inch on the ground. However, Central Park didn't report snow depth Wed morning. LGA had 1" on the ground as of Wed morning, and they had 3" less snow on the ground than Central Park did before Tue's washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Cloud cover kept me around 27 all night, never got down to the 20 upton had me at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Its probably a 3-6/4-7" ceiling either way because of the warmer column as the storm tracks further west. But I'll sign up for this solution right now and would love a few hours of good snow. 5 more inches to hit 50 on the year and that would leave me one storm away from last years totals. Good stuff. La epic winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 nam snowfall map is 4-8 for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 is it possible when a thread is closed to provide a link at the end of the thread to where the discussion was transfered to? thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Its probably a 3-6/4-7" ceiling either way because of the warmer column as the storm tracks further west. But I'll sign up for this solution right now and would love a few hours of good snow. 5 more inches to hit 50 on the year and that would leave me one storm away from last years totals. Good stuff. La epic winter so far. yea some amazing stuff...close to 50" and its still Jan. big one next week COULD put this year in reach of winter 95/96 in some parts in NJ. its also nice to get snows during the daytime finally. if my Jetta GLI cant make it up the hill tomorrow, work looks like a long shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 nam snowfall map is 4-8 for the metro area Please post the map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Please post the map.. sorry man...paid map cant do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 yea some amazing stuff...close to 50" and its still Jan. big one next week COULD put this year in reach of winter 95/96 in some parts in NJ. its also nice to get snows during the daytime finally. if my Jetta GLI cant make it up the hill tomorrow, work looks like a long shot! NAM has the snow falling from 10:00p.m. tonight thru 8am tomorrow. So its a night time event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The clown map should be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 for an hour or two, but its likely over by 8-9am west of NYC. yea some amazing stuff...close to 50" and its still Jan. big one next week COULD put this year in reach of winter 95/96 in some parts in NJ. its also nice to get snows during the daytime finally. if my Jetta GLI cant make it up the hill tomorrow, work looks like a long shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NAM has the snow falling from 10:00p.m. tonight thru 8am tomorrow. So its a night time event. Shocker. Beggers can't be chosers however, and for those who don't sleep in, they can catch a few flakes in the day light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NAM has the snow falling from 10:00p.m. tonight thru 8am tomorrow. So its a night time event. yea i just checked again....originally it was friday am to friday early pm but looks like its coming in faster now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Shocker. Beggers can't be chosers however, and for those who don't sleep in, they can catch a few flakes in the day light. Its better like that for the city area. Less cars on road and less traffic overall. Snow sticks all over and much easier. I'll wake up at 5am to catch the last of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow....Good trends overnight. I wasn't sure if I wanted to check out what was going on....but its looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This thing has dropped some crazy amounts overnight in the Midwest...St Louis had 9 inches which is probably a top 15 all time storm for them with some areas getting 12 inches nearby, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This thing has dropped some crazy amounts overnight in the Midwest...St Louis had 9 inches which is probably a top 15 all time storm for them with some areas getting 12 inches nearby, always a good sign! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z NAM 40km text soundings: LGA: .57" 31-32.3 surface NYC: .55" 31-32.3 surface JFK: .55" 32.5-34.1 surface EWR: .53" 31.5-31.9 surface ISP: .55" 31.1-32.3 surface BDR: .68" 31.8-32.4 surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Heavy wet snow based off the Nam soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Heavy wet snow based off the Nam soundings. With this coming in overnight, I doubt temperatures near those levels are reached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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