Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 126 984mb ne of ric 1" in 6 hours here 0c just west of ric & dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, this one's going to be a rainer. Matches pretty well with the GGEM/UK so far. Still time to get things right tho... I guess the wailing over the "MIller B Screwjob" was a bit premature... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 126 984mb ne of ric 1" in 6 hours here 0c just west of ric & dc Midlo are we switching back over to snow at 126? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 126 2" line wilm nc to west of dc and all points east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 114 1004 low augusta ga 0c to dc ric 0.75 dc 0.25 I hope it dries out enought to play the Masters in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 84 hr closed 500 low northern wisc 0z had it in south west iowa That bothers me more then any run to run changes in SLP or rain snow line. Please understand this is not an "i think were screwed post" its just a "this is what we want to look for to make sure we are not going to take it up the arse again" post. As long as the H5 track stays south of DC we are ok. Models will jump around run to run but so long as the H5 is going to track south of us we have a good shot. If we start seeing the h5 trend north on guidance from run to run then its time to worry. GFS trended from the VA/NC border to central VA with H5 from 0z to 12z but that could just be noise at this range. If the H5 does trend north though, do not beleive the surface it will be another miller b, because if the H5 does not dig enough, it will not be able to phase with and capture the southern energy and the low from the gulf. Instead it will phase with and amplify something along the mid atlantic coast and we all know how that ends for us. Stop looking at the surface of each model run and focus on the H5 progression. As long as that stays good we have a shot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 you do understand that the two are physically/dynamically related? That bothers me more then any run to run changes in SLP or rain snow line. Please understand this is not an "i think were screwed post" its just a "this is what we want to look for to make sure we are not going to take it up the arse again" post. As long as the H5 track stays south of DC we are ok. Models will jump around run to run but so long as the H5 is going to track south of us we have a good shot. If we start seeing the h5 trend north on guidance from run to run then its time to worry. GFS trended from the VA/NC border to central VA with H5 from 0z to 12z but that could just be noise at this range. If the H5 does trend north though, do not beleive the surface it will be another miller b, because if the H5 does not dig enough, it will not be able to phase with and capture the southern energy and the low from the gulf. Instead it will phase with and amplify something along the mid atlantic coast and we all know how that ends for us. Stop looking at the surface of each model run and focus on the H5 progression. As long as that stays good we have a shot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Midlo are we switching back over to snow at 126? between 126 -132 yea everyone goes back with 0.25"+ ric dc near 0.50"+ maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 you do understand that the two are physically/dynamically related? yes I do, but the models tend to do better with major H5 features then they do the surface details. Things like exact thermal profiles, SLP track, and precip are hard to nail at 100 hours, but the major H5 amplification and depth of the trough is a little more accurate usually. Not much but some. SO I guess when viewing the models I tend to look at the H5 and see that as driving the surface more then the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Today's Euro is a good track for back here. Heavy wet snow. But there's no breathing room for any further west trend going forward, and we have 4-5 days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 HM giving us all some loving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I still much prefer this look to the OTS or MIller B. Shift it 50 miles east and we get a huge snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 congrats boston 2"+ mostly snow gonna be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Probably snow-rain-snow on the GGEM. Can't be sure without knowing temps and thicknesses, but based on the track, it would be hard to keep it all snow in DC and Baltimore with a slightly inland track. I aould take the GGEm in a heartbeat. Perfect track for a crippling storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 people need to stop treating the surface low as a feature that "tracks", it's a dynamic response and it's in complete agreement with the forcing (for example, 5H) in the model, always. yes I do, but the models tend to do better with major H5 features then they do the surface details. Things like exact thermal profiles, SLP track, and precip are hard to nail at 100 hours, but the major H5 amplification and depth of the trough is a little more accurate usually. Not much but some. SO I guess when viewing the models I tend to look at the H5 and see that as driving the surface more then the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Please address IAD for temps / QPF...thanks to the pros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 In the grand scheme of things from this range the euro is not a significant change from its 0z solution. People will think so because the 50 mile surface track difference and the 2 degree change in temps has a major impact on specific snowfall when your dancing with the rain/snow line but at this range the differences from 0z to 12z are just noise. It still gives a significant front and back end snow for the DC area. The ensembles will help see if this move was a trend or just noise but dont over analyze them either at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 key difference here is the euro holds back energy and is slower to evolve than the gfs at hr 90 the trough axis is hundreds of miles east on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 meh...ill take whatever i can get right now. still better than the miller B screw job and OP is probably too amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 people need to stop treating the surface low as a feature that "tracks", it's a dynamic response and it's in complete agreement with the forcing (for example, 5H) in the model, always. I agree with this mostly, but sometimes the models do something screwy at the surface that seems out of touch with other levels. In these instances 90 percent of the time the correction that comes in future runs is at the surface, NOT the H5. This winter is a great example as time after time models have tried to give significant snow to DC with an H5 track that made no sense. As the storm approached they invariable correct the surface to match the H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro isn't all bad. We get a nice front end and er..back end dump..ahem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 key difference here is the euro holds back energy and is slower to evolve than the gfs at hr 90 the trough axis is hundreds of miles east on the gfs I would think splitting the difference between these two solutions would be our dream scenario, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro isn't all bad. We get a nice front end and er..back end dump..ahem when that thing bombs if it is 50 miles or more east someone in va could get a huge surprise that is riding the mix line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro isn't all bad. We get a nice front end and er..back end dump..ahem Exactly-- Too bad you're not in Htown this year-- looks to be REALLY good up there. Heck, even if its a Miller A rain, I'll be please. Looking at the EC extrated Data--its not bad for my region. Snow to rain but temps are 33 (Likely too warm) then back to snow with like 6-10 falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 we've gotten really lenient with this posting of map and nothing else. at the very least it might be nice to just have links to we dont have to scroll for a mile. regardless, probably a good sign the mean is useless. At the very least, unless someone adds graphics to illustrate a point, ban all posting of NAM and GFS maps. Everybody has access to those maps. Leave the map posting for the images that aren't available to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro isn't all bad. We get a nice front end and er..back end dump..ahem People are acting like we are hundreds of miles from a snowstorm around here. This isn't an Apps runner. 50 miles east would pound IAD and central MD, 100 miles east would give I-95 a huge snowstorm. Considering the huge GFS shifts over the last 24 hours, everything is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 From the NYC/Philly thread: "qpf for event 3-4" DC just west of Baltimore to PA /MD border then east to norther DE line goes south to southern 3rd of DE and then back to DC 2.5-3" north thru dead center VA in to PA east of Altoona, goes east to NYC, all of NJ, delmarva and eastern VA 1.75-2" WV/MD border northeast to NY/PA border on up[ to NE" That's wild stuff right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I agree with this mostly, but sometimes the models do something screwy at the surface that seems out of touch with other levels. In these instances 90 percent of the time the correction that comes in future runs is at the surface, NOT the H5. This winter is a great example as time after time models have tried to give significant snow to DC with an H5 track that made no sense. As the storm approached they invariable correct the surface to match the H5. So what is the H5 track here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 when that thing bombs if it is 50 miles or more east someone in va could get a huge surprise that is riding the mix line Exactly-- as is, its snow just west of LYH-- ROA and BCB are all snow. LYH warms to rain, would likley be ice and then EXPLODES back to snow (Another 6-10). My experience is that inland runners are better for backlash snows then OTS storms...so it could be legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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