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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji
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Impressive gfs. I'm surprised at how conservative some of the media is in view of .75 in 6 hr qpf.

dc is a tough place to forecast obviously but some of the mets around here are just not very good forecasters. i think that's partly why cwg has been so well received.

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dc is a tough place to forecast obviously but some of the mets around here are just not very good forecasters. i think that's partly why cwg has been so well received.

No argument there.

Regardless, we seem pretty much locked in for at least our biggest storm of the season.

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If the news agencies don't get on this... (if not by 6pm, I'll give them 11PM) those of us who have to commute tomorrow will be faced with a ****show. My boss already blindly says that there will be nothing because the Weather Channel says nothing...expect to be here all day.

This has a big potential to be a ClusterF to say the least

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If the news agencies don't get on this... (if not by 6pm, I'll give them 11PM) those of us who have to commute tomorrow will be faced with a ****show. My boss already blindly says that there will be nothing because the Weather Channel says nothing...expect to be here all day.

This has a big potential to be a ClusterF to say the least

That's the truth. If the timing on this is that the worst/best of the rates comes after 6, the commute is going to be ugly, especially for people who have long distances to go. I'm already planning to leave early.

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map is going out soon (15 min or so).. wes' post has the general idea tho

http://voices.washin..._heavy_wet.html

I was thinking 4-8 as a start for IAD and BWI, but these things sometimes have a mind of it's own when H5 is involved with dynamics. Someone may get "screwed", but then another person will get smoked. I thought that range will cover it, but quite possibly, some will get more. I wouldn't be shocked of the 00z runs shift that bullseye around just a bit.

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Anybody note this from HPC heavy snow discussion? Didn't see it among the rest. We knew it, but I like it when HPC gets giddy with language like "off the charts."

http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/qpfhsd.html

/snip

THE INSTABILITY AND UVVS ASSOCIATED

WITH THE DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE/COMMA-HEAD WILL BE OFF THE

CHARTS... POSSIBLY ALLOWING A CONVECTIVE ASPECT TO BECOME

INVOLVED. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE IN INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS

THE DC/BWI AREA FROM LATE TMRW AFTN TO VERY EARLY THURS MORNING

BEFORE THE ENTIRE PHASING SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY UP THE COAST.

/snip

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If the news agencies don't get on this... (if not by 6pm, I'll give them 11PM) those of us who have to commute tomorrow will be faced with a ****show. My boss already blindly says that there will be nothing because the Weather Channel says nothing...expect to be here all day.

This has a big potential to be a ClusterF to say the least

If it's not a full-fledged snow pre-dawn, I see myself doing the Columbia-DC commute at 5am and then bugging out of DC around/by noon/early afternoon (depending on storm evolution) -- again, assuming steady state and the morning sees mostly rain/snow/mix with the expected changeover during the PM.

Subject to change (and my whims), of course.:whistle: And must consider the difference in conditions between HoCo and DC.

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The numbers are good I think, especially with caveats

We'll have caveats. certainly wouldn't want 1-3 and I saw that from one outlet that was critical of the NWS wsw. I think their, the nws, warming or watch is justified. I remember nov 1987 and feb 1987 as two storm with warm temps prior to them that still had pretty big snow totals. So did mar 1958 but that was a different animal. Some are making too big a deal of the surface temps today.

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i thought WVA was wild and wonderful, but it sure must be boring if you are TROLLING on this board all day

If you feel that somebody's post is legit out of line then you can report it. You don't have to clutter the thread even more...The report button is simple to use.

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That UL energy to the west is just bursting with potential

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

This time it will NOT miss us to the north

I am just kickin' on back watching this storm come together. Watching that deform/comma head develop and wallop the hell outta RIC to EZF to Woodbridge to DCA to balto to Philly on NE is gonna be a really satisfying snowgasmer's prolonged wet dreamthumbsupsmileyanim.gifthumbsupsmileyanim.gifthumbsupsmileyanim.gifthumbsupsmileyanim.gifthumbsupsmileyanim.gifthumbsupsmileyanim.gifthumbsupsmileyanim.gifthumbsupsmileyanim.gifthumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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We'll have caveats. certainly wouldn't want 1-3 and I saw that from one outlet that was critical of the NWS wsw. I think their, the nws, warming or watch is justified. I remember nov 1987 and feb 1987 as two storm with warm temps prior to them that still had pretty big snow totals. So did mar 1958 but that was a different animal. Some are making too big a deal of the surface temps today.

Clearly its warmer today, but it isn't like its been in the 40s for a week. We'll lose some early collection to melting, sure, but not all of it.

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We'll have caveats. certainly wouldn't want 1-3 and I saw that from one outlet that was critical of the NWS wsw. I think their, the nws, warming or watch is justified. I remember nov 1987 and feb 1987 as two storm with warm temps prior to them that still had pretty big snow totals. So did mar 1958 but that was a different animal. Some are making too big a deal of the surface temps today.

I definitely would not go lower. I think we can top 3-6 but we'd need everything to go right I guess.

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