showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looking over the individual ensemble members there is very good agreement between them and the OP as the storm approaches our region. Looks like once it hits around OC, MD though, they start to diverge to the NE from the OP. Want to say they are generally colder then the OP as they approach the region but could definitely be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 6z bufkits for IAD NAM 14 inches snow, 1.14 qpf GFS rain, .33 qpf funny stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 6z bufkits for IAD NAM 14 inches snow, 1.14 qpf GFS rain, .33 qpf funny stuff And the storm is only 60 hours away.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 According to the vertical temperature profiles KDCA would remain all snow on the 6z NAM. KDCA_6ZNAM With 1.45" qpf and according to the profile, 13"+ of snow? Thats about 9.6:1 snow ratio. Colder temps would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You could be correct. My track record for this storm is horrid but that will not shut me up... ...time to hug a blend of the NAM and GFS. PSUHoffman could get 10" in the upcountry of Carroll County. This setup reminds me a lot of when I was a kid growing up in the Baltimore area. Storms frequently gave a sloppy 1-3 inch snow for us and I would look at the snow maps and see 3-6, 6-12 to my north and west by only 25 to 50 miles. Talk about being pi**ed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeannapolis Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Lurking for a while. Wish I had found this forum last year :-) I'm not getting my hopes up over here along the bay. Looks like my car will finally get a bath. Maybe you folks to the west of DC stay cool enough for a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Lurking for a while. Wish I had found this forum last year :-) I'm not getting my hopes up over here along the bay. Looks like my car will finally get a bath. Maybe you folks to the west of DC stay cool enough for a nice hit. Welcome aboard. Looking rough for you down there. Maybe some backend snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Lurking for a while. Wish I had found this forum last year :-) I'm not getting my hopes up over here along the bay. Looks like my car will finally get a bath. Maybe you folks to the west of DC stay cool enough for a nice hit. I hope it works out for the whole area somehow! I grew up in Calvert so I know how frustrating it can be over there with these marginal events. Every so often you cash in like January 25, 2000....my Calvert family were all calling me to gloat during that one LOL! (I got about 7" while they got like 20"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On showmethesnow's last map above, don't the "blues" almost encircle DC but not include it? The "blues" being .75 - 1 inch? Yes. But the .50 - .75 is all over the alleged "precip hole" on that map. Unless you are now defining precip hole to be anything that is not under a blue. Which would be ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 its not really THAT rare, but we do not remember them because 90 percent of the time when we get snow from a good H5 track we also get snow from the associated surface system and so its all blended together. Last year we got deform snows from the passage of the H5 low in all 3 major snowstorms for DC last year. But no one remembers the wraparound because it just became part of the larger whole event. What is rare here is getting snows from the H5/H7 lows after not getting any snow from the surface system. Its rare that we get "wraparound" snows after not getting snow from the front end. THe reason that is rare is because a good H5 track usually also promotes a good slp track. Here our issues are not the track of the storm but the lack of a high. This lack of a high also tends to lead to the disjointed nature of the precip. With a strong high you get better WAA precip ahead of the storm because there is more resistance to the surge of warm air and thus more lift. The disjointed nature of the precip is partly due to the lack of cold air. This seems common with similar systems. I do not find it that far fetched that we get some snow from the passage of the upper level low because most guidance has suggested it would be a good track for us from a week ago. The front end of this storm is not working out because it has trended slower, and the high has trended weaker and faster to leave. That combo killed our chances for a MECS/HECS down here. We still have a shot at a SECS if we can get that H5 to stay strong and pass right south of us, should crash heights and cool the column pretty fast and a quick thump of wet snow could happen. PUNT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Pleasant to wake up to the 6Z NAM, hoping to see some consistency into the 12z run now. Would be interesting to hear some red taggers thoughts on the 6z run whenever they get around to reading the thread this AM. We're getting close to the NAM's good range, no? Or is it still not as accurate this many hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The "blues" being .75 - 1 inch? Yes. But the .50 - .75 is all over the alleged "precip hole" on that map. Unless you are now defining precip hole to be anything that is not under a blue. Which would be ridiculous. He'll define it as whatever he wants because it is part of his negative-weenie mythos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Doug Hill is talking of a rain event for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Sort of interesting the NAM continues to cool and the GFS continues to warm. The NAM was originally warmer, but now the GFS is and the gap grew at 06Z. That is probably not a good thing since the Euro has been warm for several runs now. GFS and Euro together at this range is a good combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Since we are now about 48 hours out from whatever it is that will happen, the 0 Z runs take on a rather heightened interest. Since I am recent to the mid-Atlantic, having moved here July of 2008, I don't have the history that a lot of you do in seeing how models handle temps and boundary between rain/ice/snow in storms like this. Is 48 hours still too far out to feel like the models will have a handle on that? Or does it end up being a nowcast kind of thing in terms of temps (like it was for that ice event last week)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Sort of interesting the NAM continues to cool and the GFS continues to warm. The NAM was originally warmer, but now the GFS is and the gap grew at 06Z. That is probably not a good thing since the Euro has been warm for several runs now. GFS and Euro together at this range is a good combo. yet, NAM is usually the warmer of the 2 vs. the GFS unfortunately, 3Z SREF's were real wet (1"+) but real warm too the question is whether the NAM is onto something or it will fold to all the others don't know, but we know what my thoughts are for this winter, so it looks to be tested with this storm if this winter finds a new way to screw us (like the Ravens found a knew way to loose to Pitt last weekend) I just wish it wasn't the NAM at 60 hrs+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 yet, NAM is usually the warmer of the 2 vs. the GFS unfortunately, 3Z SREF's were real wet (1"+) but real warm too the question is whether the NAM is onto something or it will fold to all the others don't know, but we know what my thoughts are for this winter, so it looks to be tested with this storm if this winter finds a new way to screw us (like the Ravens found a knew way to loose to Pitt last weekend) I just wish it wasn't the NAM at 60 hrs+ Yeah, SREFs are super warm, even at 850. They've jumped around last few runs, though. They also sucked hard on the December 26th event so I no longer trust them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah, SREFs are super warm, even at 850. They've jumped around last few runs, though. They also sucked hard on the December 26th event so I no longer trust them. they sucked on all the events this year, at least with respect to qpf forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Since we are now about 48 hours out from whatever it is that will happen, the 0 Z runs take on a rather heightened interest. Since I am recent to the mid-Atlantic, having moved here July of 2008, I don't have the history that a lot of you do in seeing how models handle temps and boundary between rain/ice/snow in storms like this. Is 48 hours still too far out to feel like the models will have a handle on that? Or does it end up being a nowcast kind of thing in terms of temps (like it was for that ice event last week)? IMHO, 48 hrs out is usually not soon enough for a final call unless we're clearly on the "rain side" of the forecast. Hopefully by 00z tonite there will be some confidence -- but even still, with storm track not fully defined, there likely will still need to be some wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 We're essentially where we were yesterday before the dry 18Z runs came in except the snowy model has switched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM is pretty, but the other models are still quite warm and would give DC and Baltimore mostly rain. It would be a cold, terrible rain. I am starting to feel like you'll need to be about by Leesburg or perhaps further west to get in on good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM was an outlier on DEC26 event if I remember correctly, main discussion was Euro Caving to the GFS too far west, & ignoring the NAM....but it had the storm nailed from 72hrs on that event, didn't really budge. Of course the timing & consistancy of the models is different with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 We're essentially where we were yesterday before the dry 18Z runs came in except the snowy model has switched. i think the GFS is out to lunch. most models give us over an inch qpf and the GFS is between .33 and .50. So whatever its showing, its probably wrong. My guess is if qpf was heavier on GFS it might be a little colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i think the GFS is out to lunch. most models give us over an inch qpf and the GFS is between .33 and .50. So whatever its showing, its probably wrong. My guess is if qpf was heavier on GFS it might be a little colder I agree- it's a dry outlier compared to the rest of the guidance right now...might be the same convective feedback problems that plagued it on the Dec 26 storm. I bet by 12Z and for sure by 0Z it will start to come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 the Feb 2-4 DT hype storm on the euro is gone. Just a cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 He'll define it as whatever he wants because it is part of his negative-weenie mythos. I WAS referring to the "green hole" in the midst of all the blues. Was just remarking that the seasonal trend is to have it be DRIER (not necessarily totally dry!) in the DC-BALT area. And that QPF map depicted that idea. People are so sensitive and quick to attack others around here! I would say that I don't have a "negative-weenie mythos." I would say that the weather has been "negative" snowwise this year, and I have been correct in my calls (except I underestimated the cold during the recent ice storm). So maybe I have been associated with being negative. I was sometimes criticized as being too positive (snowwise) in other events in previous years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 the Feb 2-4 DT hype storm on the euro is gone. Just a cold front Thank goodness you didn't name that one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 wow, 9Z SREF's much colder than 3Z looks like a decent shot at decent snow from "backlash" too, if not also from front end great qpf too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i think the GFS is out to lunch. most models give us over an inch qpf and the GFS is between .33 and .50. So whatever its showing, its probably wrong. My guess is if qpf was heavier on GFS it might be a little colder I could see it getting wetter and maybe getting colder but the latter is more iffy. If the nam still shows snow inside of 24 hrs, I'll start getting excited. Right now it's still too much of a thread the needle deal for most of us. Where you live, you might be OK anyway sinc eyou're farther away from the ocean. DC needs help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.