40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You said -10F. If it starts to rain at that temp, there will be an ice skating rink to drive on. Obviously that won't be the case but you did say -10F. First of all, I was exagerating....secondly, temps are going to start rising soon....snow-rain. By the time the snow flips to sleet and rain, just about all of E MA should be above freezing or close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 We want a stronger low with a more easterly track. Weak low with a west track is john jumping off a bridge.....or is he not sold on mid levels from hell box was really hammering ML warmth on disco..... seems like mid levels torch ahead of schedule.....what to we want a weaker or stronger low to limit torching mid-levels it seems at 12 hours (12z =7am) the nam is weaker with surface low but mid levels 0c are much further north. from 12z run to 0z run the 24 and 12 hr 0c line has shifted from near allentown to binghamton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Even in the best winters, there are some duds. One of the rare ones in 1993-94 was this exact date I think. Supposed to be 4-8. System similar to this run up west of Boston. Temps spiked to 50 before crashing on the other side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 At least the RUC is snowy for a while...warms at 17z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 And NAM looks like it's cooking up a nice one for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 First of all, I was exagerating....secondly, temps are going to start rising soon....snow-rain. By the time the snow flips to sleet and rain, just about all of E MA should be above freezing or close to it. Hey, I'm just sayin' what youz was sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I was thinking Feb 07 when this run was coming out too. The only question is will it be more IP or ZR? H9 is the warm level so I'm leaning ZR. There are nightmares running through some utility heads right now in CMASS SNH, 08 revisited nightmares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This looks like mostly Snow here at KLEB, but it's close... Either way, the GFS MOS has been relatively unimpressed for a while... be interesting to see the rest of the suite. You get iffy at 27hr with 850s of +1.5C at LEB. Then dry air moves in aloft so you'd maybe get snow grained or ZL'd briefly at the end. We're both all snow on this run through 00z tomorrow. Then I get 0.50" of ZR/IP/R. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ruc's 850's pretty much backing up the 0z NAM. Not a good sign. Would bet that the rest of the 0z suite comes in warmer At least the RUC is snowy for a while...warms at 17z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 And NAM looks like it's cooking up a nice one for Friday. F the nam past 12 hours......i see why messenger hates it now lol seriously thou is everyone throwing in the towel. mets have been eerily quiet throughout the nite....cept for john tossing out the snowbomb checkmate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 And NAM looks like it's cooking up a nice one for Friday. just trying to get through tomorrow to get to Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 F the nam past 12 hours......i see why messenger hates it now lol seriously thou is everyone throwing in the towel. mets have been eerily quiet throughout the nite....cept for john tossing out the snowbomb checkmate NAM was way too amped up...waiting for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 F the nam past 12 hours......i see why messenger hates it now lol seriously thou is everyone throwing in the towel. mets have been eerily quiet throughout the nite....cept for john tossing out the snowbomb checkmate Nothing about this is suprising....it's a 2-5" swfe to rain....always has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well the NAM is bustin' way too warm. Has me at 20F right now. I'm at 6F. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Ktan.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i dont see me or anyone west of the river going above 32 tomorrow!! Not alot of snow but alot of ice in my opinion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well the NAM is bustin' way too warm. Has me at 20F right now. I'm at 6F. http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Ktan.txt Temps will begin rising momentarily in TAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well the NAM is bustin' way too warm. Has me at 20F right now. I'm at 6F. http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Ktan.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Temps will begin rising momentarily in TAN. Yea, that mixes right out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Nothing about this is suprising....it's a 2-5" swfe to rain....always has been. Ray what are you predicting for your back yard .I must have missed it the first ten times you posted it this week? LOL climo says you are dead nuts right.Let's hope the high end of what makes climo occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Very doubtful. Plenty of rain but not that much. The good news is even with NAM the low levels are not that warm. And the better news is this solution I think makes it easier for something bigger Friday. You sound like Monty Hall, Jerry. "You can keep this wintry potpouri and perhaps have a net gain. Or, you can trade it in for what's behind this curtain......" The contestants are all dressed up as various weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Temps starting to rise in Blackstone...up 2 degrees in the past 45 minutes...low of 7.7F. Doesn't mean much anyway...in situ CAD is meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Now worries. Yeah, mostly aholes in the snowmobiling game really. It's too bad, it used to be so much fun, now it's survival out there. Machines too big, too powerful, too fast and the general IQ of the rider has gone down. It's hard to imagine 3 feet of snow is now gone on most trails, but that's the way it is these days. Back in the glory days of the Cheetah440 (1973 vintage) we'd be good for the rest of the year. What's causing it, just rough riding, tearing up the snow and blasting it off trails? F the nam past 12 hours......i see why messenger hates it now lol seriously thou is everyone throwing in the towel. mets have been eerily quiet throughout the nite....cept for john tossing out the snowbomb checkmate Just look at the 12z 24 hr nam QPF forecast. Sure it ties back to the dynamics of course but it just missed by a wee little bit in ENC. It's not a great model, it got lucky once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ray what are you predicting for your back yard .I must have missed it the first ten times you posted it this week? LOL climo says you are dead nuts right.Let's hope the high end of what makes climo occurs. Well, I'd rather be rundant than face folks calling BS on me after the fact. 3.9\-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Temps will begin rising momentarily in TAN. Yea, that mixes right out. What's your point people? I already made my call for myb of 1-2". Y'all can kiss my ass. The NAM is off it's rocker tonight and you think I'm a weenie. Continue to believe the NAM all you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well the NAM is bustin' way too warm. Has me at 20F right now. I'm at 6F. http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Ktan.txt Rad cooling will almost always be colder than the 2m progged temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 What's causing it, just rough riding, tearing up the snow and blasting it off trails? Just look at the 12z 24 hr nam QPF forecast. Sure it ties back to the dynamics of course but it just missed by a wee little bit in ENC. It's not a great model, it got lucky once. Well, I think there is a little more to it than that.....that was a situation in which it excels, but swfes are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Temps starting to rise in Blackstone...up 2 degrees in the past 45 minutes...low of 7.7F. Doesn't mean much anyway...in situ CAD is meh. Yup. I'd rather have a 10mph low level NE wind right now advecting in cold/dry air instead of 0F that will be retreating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 What's your point people? I already made my call for myb of 1-2". Y'all can kiss my ass. The NAM is off it's rocker tonight and you think I'm a weenie. Continue to believe the NAM all you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You get iffy at 27hr with 850s of +1.5C at LEB. Then dry air moves in aloft so you'd maybe get snow grained or ZL'd briefly at the end. We're both all snow on this run through 00z tomorrow. Then I get 0.50" of ZR/IP/R. Yep. i still like my 4.5-9 call here, probably in the 6-7 inch with a little glaze... Wait on more info though. What did you get in V-Day 07? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Rad cooling will almost always be colder than the 2m progged temps. Correct. But is being off by 15F normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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